Reasons behind short term stock market swings

[d]

There's a difference there.

a major difference.  Predictions about the weather will have no effect upon the weather.  Predictions about the markets can have very real effects upon the market -- sometimes good, sometimes bad. 

 

[saluki9]

The most accurate weather forecaster in the world is a holy grail called "persistence". Persistence says that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's weather. That's it. Persistence is usually right just over 50% of the time and the next-closest forecaster is no better than 45%.

Pretty funny, that's the exact same as predicting interest rates, or exchange rates.

 

[Nords]

a major difference.  Predictions about the weather will have no effect upon the weather.  Predictions about the markets can have very real effects upon the market -- sometimes good, sometimes bad. 

Very good point. The Fed's comments are proving to be a pretty powerful feedback loop...

 

[Surfdaddy]

I've always felt that the big investment firms rating on stocks are the best TRAILING indicator of what to do. Example:

Company XXX is at $75/share.
Company XXX announces that earnings are now expected to be lower for the next quarter than predicted.
Stock drops to $67.
Merrill Lynch, UBS, etc. downgrade the stock to "HOLD" from "OUTPERFORM", or some such nonsense.

Nobody issued that change PRIOR to the company guidance.

 

[HFWR]

How cynical...

 

[rmark]

So in other words, Nords, a bunch of scientists, meteorologists, and statisticians have tons of complicated computer models that allow them to make an educated guess on future weather conditions. Financial journalists just guess. There's a difference there.

The first group use SWAG - scientific wild ass guesses
The second group uses just wild ass guesses

 

[Sam]

I hear what you guys are saying, but I have to live with this crap every day.  Spouse used to be the Ops officer at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, her relief has his doctorate in tropical meteorology and now works at the National Hurricane Center, and she regularly went to conferences with guys like Stacey Stewart or had Reservists in similar jobs come out to JTWC for duty.

The most accurate weather forecaster in the world is a holy grail called "persistence".  Persistence says that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's weather.  That's it.  Persistence is usually right just over 50% of the time and the next-closest forecaster is no better than 45%.

...

Geez, Nords.  And I thought I knew something.  OK, I will have to do a bit more reading before getting back to this weather forecasting stuff.  Can't compete with a Joint Typhoon Warning Center Ops Officer's housemate 

Sam

 

[Nords]

Can't compete with a Joint Typhoon Warning Center Ops Officer's housemate 

I was awakened more midwatches by my kid than by sea duty, but my spouse beat us both combined with her watch officers. Thank goodness for the Internet-- her predecessors had to drive into work to look at the images. They even kept a sleeper sofa in the office.

She doesn't miss military meteorology one bit...

You could spend your whole life on this stuff:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/

 

[justin]

Persistence defined:

 

[IBWino]

Justin,
At least ours is a dry persistence.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Wusses.

 

[Nords]

Wusses.

What kind of award do you win for your suffering?

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

The great relief when it cools way off later in the week...I hear its going to drop all the way down to 97...