Results of 2008 Market Prediction Contest

[TromboneAl]

Didn't we have a contest concerning where the market would end up in 2008? I can't seem to find it.

 

[REWahoo]

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/where-will-the-market-be-on-12-31-08-a-39235.html

 

[clifp]

Well precious few people actually put a number in the thread. I said Dow 16K, but since I said that was Dec 2013 I still have 5 years for people to forget about me, or if I am correct and still posting, to boast.

Among the brave few who hazarded a guess Travelovers Dow 9000 was close and almost perfect if you allow for the Jan 2 rally. Hal 3 was the most pessimistic at Dow 7800.

 

[Frugality_of_Apathy]

I said the market would probably bottom out at DOW 7000-8000 in another thread in July. Simple timing system

The bottom was 7552.29

 

[freebird5825]

quoting myself...
Today is Dec 8.
M* US Broad Market Index currently stands at -39.59% YTD.
i'll be an optimist, hypothesizing that the Santa Claus (retail sector boost) and New Year's (whew, this year is finally over) effects will bring the....drum roll...crystal ball spinning...tea leaves swirling...
US Broad Market Index up to -25% YTD by market close on Dec 31, 2008.

Morningstar US Broad Market Index, 1 year, -34.20 as of Friday Jan 2, 2009.
source: Index Returns
I'll bet you all never knew there were so many indices out there. Or even cared.

oh well. maybe I need to start playing the NYS Lottery.
Hey, ya never know. A dollar and a dream. yadda yadda yadda...

 

[clifp]

I think Travelover was still closer predicted Dow 9000 actual 8776 error 2.5%
Freebird predicted -25% actual -34.2 error 9.2%
FOA predicted 8000 (when you pick a range you can't use the mid point because then you could claim if the Dow finished anywhere between 6500 and 8500 points you were within 500 points). Actual 7552 error 5.6%

 

[Dawg52]

I said it might go to zero. Glad it didn't.

 

[Grep]

Very good. Now, where will things stand a year from now?

I'm rooting for (not predicting) S&P at 1150 or above.

Cheers.

 

[clifp]

S&P 1200 Dow 11,200 Dec 31, 2009. Dow 16,000+ Dec 31,2013.

 

[Dawg52]

S&P 1200 Dow 11,200 Dec 31, 2009. Dow 16,000+ Dec 31,2013.

God bless you.

 

[kyounge1956]

(snip)
Freebird predicted -25% actual -34.2 error 9.2%(snip)

this is an error of 9.2 percentage points, but 34.2/25=1.368, so the error is actually nearly 40%, not 9.2%

 

[clifp]

this is an error of 9.2 percentage points, but 34.2/25=1.368, so the error is actually nearly 40%, not 9.2%

I wasn't sure what the right way to calculate that given her prediction was based on percentage and not an index, so you maybe right.

OTOH, lets say the Morningstar broad index was 1,000 at the start of the 2008 (there isn't actually a number associated with it). Freebird guessed the index would end at 750, the actual index was 658, her guess was off by 9.2%...

I don't really care just saying that among a very limited sample Travellover did the best.

 

[travelover]

......................Travellover did the best.

 

[Frugality_of_Apathy]

FOA predicted 8000 (when you pick a range you can't use the mid point because then you could claim if the Dow finished anywhere between 6500 and 8500 points you were within 500 points). Actual 7552 error 5.6%

When looking at a range of course you use the center point, because the range reflects the confidence. I was confident to within 500 points on either side. 6500 or 8500 would be off by 1000; 15.4% or 11.8% respectively.

The only time a range means the biggest number is when you're negotiating with contractors and car salesmen, in which case the high number is really the bottom of what you might expect to pay.

 

[haha]

When looking at a range of course you use the center point, because the range reflects the confidence. I was confident to within 500 points on either side. 6500 or 8500 would be off by 1000; 15.4% or 11.8% respectively.

The only time a range means the biggest number is when you're negotiating with contractors and car salesmen, in which case the high number is really the bottom of what you might expect to pay.

I hope all this hair-splitting at least makes you some money.

Ha

 

[clifp]

Ok I am going to resign from judging the results of somebody elses thread.
I am starting my own thread for 2009 predictions, where I'll be the judge cause I'll be handing out the prizes..

 

[Frugality_of_Apathy]

I hope all this hair-splitting at least makes you some money.

Ha

I just naturally assumed the prize for winning was a fully funded early retirement. I guess I'll just have to argue semantics with my boss for another 10 years then.,oh well.