Retire in the face of today's economy?

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa ... so work til you're 80?

Hey, if it's good enough for you...

[Marquette]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa ... so work til you're 80?

That's my* plan!

* your

[rogersteciak]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CitricAcid Optimum time to retire: when your net worth (in this case not including house) hits 40x your yearly expenses.

The way to think about this goal is as follows:

• If you have six months of living expenses in your checking account as a cushion, you can live six months without a job before you run out of money.
• If you have 25 years of living expenses in your checking account as a cushion, you can live 25 years without a job before you run out of money.
• If you have 40 years of living expenses in your checking account as a cushion, you can live 40 years without a job before you run out of money.

But if you take that 25 or 40 years of cushion and invest it in a diversified portfolio, the investment income (at a 4% or 2.5% SWR) will be enough to pay your living expenses forever and stay ahead of inflation (based on the financial and market conditions we've experienced over the past several decades).

Of course, you would start your investment program after you have several months of living expenses saved up as a cushion so that your investment income can compound and help you get to FIRE more quickly than just cash alone in your checking account.

[CitricAcid]

Rich in Tampa is right, I was wrong. When net worth (without house) = 5x your yearly expenses

[Marquette]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CitricAcid Rich in Tampa is right, I was wrong. When net worth (without house) = 5x your yearly expenses

Net worth = 25x yearly expenses = 4% safe withdrawal rate.

4% safe withdrawal rate = 95% chance of portfolio survivability* over a 30 year period.

*survivability means you may post a thread on here asking if you should go back to work, or is it different this time, or will you run out of money, is there a good bear fund, etc.

[Rich_by_the_Bay]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CitricAcid Rich in Tampa is right, I was wrong. When net worth (without house) = 5x your yearly expenses

The rule of thumb I have most often seen is nest egg = 20-25x annual expenses.

No matter what calculator I use, I always come out in that range.

[rogersteciak]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa The rule of thumb I have most often seen is nest egg = 20-25x annual expenses.

It depends on what kind of margin of safety you desire. But as Bernstein points out in his Retirement Calculator From Hell series (http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...nfo-30505.html), there is a law of diminishing returns for margin of safety.

If the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse decide to trash the world again during our lifetimes, for example, the best investment for survival during that period of time may be guns, ammunition, gold, and candy bars (i.e., the de facto local currency).

[Khan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rogersteciak It depends on what kind of margin of safety you desire. But as Bernstein points out in his Retirement Calculator From Hell series (http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...nfo-30505.html), there is a law of diminishing returns for margin of safety. If the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse decide to trash the world again during our lifetimes, for example, the best investment for survival during that period of time may be guns, ammunition, gold, and candy bars (i.e., the de facto local currency).

My father said cigarettes were currency in Germany after WW2.

[deepc]

Well who'd have thought a deleted thread would go two pages? Thanks for all the replies. Work continues to blow, especially bad day today.

I'm about at the 20x annual expenses spot, or near enough that it's irrelevant because my expenses will decline over time. Yep, military and Nords and I have common experience in Hawaii.

Thanks all for your continued insight, like I said it's obvious the choice is mine. Perhaps the most useful comment is the fact that there's never a "right time", that you just do it and it mostly all works out.

Next week I give two week notice, on the 22nd I'm retired.

Hoo Yah. And yes, deepc is deep sea.

[shotgunner]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texarkandy " I realize a similar situation could occur 5, 10 years down the road also after I'm retired from "the job", but why jump out right in the middle of (or just at the start of?) an inflationary period before wages have caught up?

Why - Because there is money and there is time. Time literally is marching forward for all of us. We have a finite number of days and more than likely an even lesser number of days with good health and mobility. Retirement is the combination of wealth and time, realize your decisions regarding retirement spend one or the other and sometimes both. Read your local obits everyday as you do the financial news. It will give balance to your perspective.

[rs0460a]

Quote:

Originally Posted by shotgunner Why - Because there is money and there is time. Time literally is marching forward for all of us. We have a finite number of days and more than likely an even lesser number of days with good health and mobility. Retirement is the combination of wealth and time, realize your decisions regarding retirement spend one or the other and sometimes both. Read your local obits everyday as you do the financial news. It will give balance to your perspective.

Yes ...

[deepc]

Thought a followup was in order, as the 22nd came and went and I am still there at the job. Been reading the forum pretty consistently and actually did submit my letter last Tuesday for a final day a week from tomorrow. One of the key influencers was the "golden handcuffs" thread, that describes my situation very similarly.

The response from my cohorts at work has been touching, and overwhelmingly positive. There has not been a single negative statement or comment, and I'm glad to have decided to part ways now, before my rotten attitude and "no keah" feelings broke through too much. It feels great to leave on good terms, with supportive folks, and before the meltdown.

Working this year after having retired from the military was invaluable as a learning experience, and even the reaction to my resignation has been surprising, humbling, and an experience that I could not have imagined and would not want to have missed out on.

Looking forward to that first day when the alarm rings, I can wake up, and don't HAVE to go anyplace. Hoo Yah/DeepC

[Khan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by deepc Thought a followup was in order, as the 22nd came and went and I am still there at the job. Been reading the forum pretty consistently and actually did submit my letter last Tuesday for a final day a week from tomorrow. One of the key influencers was the "golden handcuffs" thread, that describes my situation very similarly. The response from my cohorts at work has been touching, and overwhelmingly positive. There has not been a single negative statement or comment, and I'm glad to have decided to part ways now, before my rotten attitude and "no keah" feelings broke through too much. It feels great to leave on good terms, with supportive folks, and before the meltdown. Working this year after having retired from the military was invaluable as a learning experience, and even the reaction to my resignation has been surprising, humbling, and an experience that I could not have imagined and would not want to have missed out on. Looking forward to that first day when the alarm rings, I can wake up, and don't HAVE to go anyplace. Hoo Yah/DeepC

I suggest you take that alarm clock out to the driveway and beat it into submission with a baseball bat.