Retirement Manifesto : Our Drawdown Strategy

SumDay

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I searched and poked around and didn't see the blog post anywhere on ER.org, so I'm sharing:

Our Retirement Investment Drawdown Strategy - The Retirement Manifesto

I'm about 10 months away from pulling the plug, and this "no more saving, now spend it" thing is baffling to me. I just can't get my head around how it should work. This article was the first thing I've read that gave me some good, practical ideas (really liked the Reserve account concept).

If this has been shared, I apologize - mods feel free to consolidate. If not, I'd love to hear your strategies. We meet with our fee-only planner next month for our every-other-year tune-up and have asked her for a list of great ideas she's learned from other clients. I'll share if I see anything brilliant, but I'm guessing this crowd thought of it all long ago. :LOL:
 
Everybody has their own strategy. I keep ours simple. I withdraw what I need to pay the bills every month. I continue to simplify our assets when it is tax-efficient to do so. I have thought out my overall tax strategy (e.g. ROTH conversions, charitable donations) out to about 2025. I'm not a fan of buckets and other mental accounting tricks.
 
It's 90% garbage.

It's like he skimmed the titles and subtitles of 100 beginner amateur invesment blogs and echoed every half-a$$s idea that sounded good -- Without bothering to research or think deeply about any of the ideas.

The "buckets" thing has been discussed by people like Michael Kitces, who have gone through the logic & rationale step-by-step, and have explained how the concept is both: a) erroneous, and b) doesn't do what it is intended to do. It is risk management at the level of understanding of a 3rd grader.

In discussing his plans to defer his pension (and Social Security) for the higher payment, he completely ignores the time value of money. He counts the gain of the eventual higher payments but ignores the immediate cost of the foregone income.

He plans to reduce his stock allocation because of the current high CAPE ratio, but is unaware that even the inventor of CAPE says that it is useless as a timing mechanism.

So obviously he hasn't done any research like googling stuff like "CAPE ratio timing".

On his "buckets" plan, he presents a static view of the money, and gives zero thought to the dynamics and money flow. Cash bucket has 1-3 years income in cash, so he won't have to sell stocks in a downturn. No discussion about what if a downturn lasts more than 1-3 years. Then the cash bucket is empty and he *has* to sell stocks -- deep in the downturn. He'd have been better off selling stocks down 10% than being forced to sell stocks when they are down 30%. Even if he doesn't empty the cash bucket, he has to refill it when the downturn is over. No discussion about that just an unstated assumption that waving hands and saying "Make it so" will suffice. (Hint: no successful refill strategy has been found. Only handwaving.)

Income bucket has 5 years income. Okay so far. But after a year, the income bucket is down to 4 years. If he wants to keep the same duration, he needs to refill it. Which means he has to sell enough stocks to replace the income he spent. Which means that, in the steady state every year he sells enough stock to equal 1 years of income (after accounting for dividends & interest received.)
So all he's done is sell stocks, but with a side-trip through the income bucket. He spends from the income bucket and then replaces that money from the stock bucket.

That's where all the "bucket" strategies fall apart. When you plot out the money flow, you see it is just smoke & mirrors. The money just moves around. He spends from the income bucket and then replaces that money from the stock bucket.

Same goes for his "One-Off Expense Reserve". He has laid it out as if each of these one-off expenses only happens AFTER the reserve has built up. What happens if in yr 1 he needs a new water heater? It costs $1000 but the account only has $100 for a water heater. What happens if in yr 2 he needs a new car AND a new washer/dryer AND a new computer? And then in yr 3 he needs a new furnace?

So, looks to me like he hasn't actually done any actual research or reading of various authoritative writers (Shiller, Kitches, Swedroe, etc.), just read 500-700 word articles posts from magazines & seekingalpha & blogs.

And he has the implicit assumption that every thing will happen in the order that works great, but has not even considered that things can happen in a bad order. I don't see any realisation that things might not work out the way he plans or any planning for contingencies.
 
Life is mostly a series of one-off expenses.
 
Life is mostly a series of one-off expenses.

Yeah, I found that out. Retired in mid-2014.

2015- downsizing cost more than expected, bank loaned us less than we wanted, needed to replace furnace in new house.

2016- needed to replace A/C in new house. (House is 20 years old- we knew it was original HVAC. Just bad luck it failed that fast.) DH died late last year; simple cremation with modest funeral and little out-of-pocket medical expenses but I turned over DH's $18K IRA to his son, as DH and I agreed. Not required by the will but I started the discussion because I wanted to do something for DSS.

2017- so far- big tax bill (good investment results), plus paying estimated taxes for 2018.

So, there's at least one "oh crap" every year. At least after I start Medicare early next year I no longer run the risk of paying a $6K deductible on my medical expenses.
 
My drawdown strategy is very simple. I take all dividends and CG distributions from my taxable accounts (about 40% of the total kit) plus SS for myself and my wife (started at 62) and a tiny pension of less than $5k a year. This is enough to cover all of our expenses in the manner we are accustomed to. When RMD's start in 3 years I'm not sure what we'll do with all that money but we'll figure out something.
 
My drawdown is very simple also:
 

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The "Delay your pension" idea would not work for me in terms of its appreciation, as I an now only gaining less than 1/2 a percent per year. But with about 3 times our planned expenses in cash, it is tempting to delay it and try to just live off of the cash (and any dividends) for a year to see how a greatly reduced tax bill might benefit us.

Other than that, I think the article made things too complex. Our current plan is to take the pension and yearly make up the difference from cash + investment income + (later) SS, with some stock draw down from my 401K to avoid massive RMDs later.
 
I'd use milder language than rayvt, but I agree with his substance:

- deferring pension for one year to get a 6% higher monthly payment is definitely not comparable to earning 6% on a bond. That's just wrong.

- I've never seen a bucket strategy with a satisfying plan for when to refill the short term bucket. I think just rebalancing to a target AA, or using withdrawals to move toward a target AA, is just as good and far simpler.

- We don't have a reserve fund in retirement. We deal with occasional, larger expenses by making occasional, larger withdrawals. Our target annual spending includes a reasonable allowance for "average" repair/replacement costs. I have no problem spending less than the target in years when those costs happen to be low and more in those years when those costs happen to be high.

- We are not big on "building a retirement paycheck". We never lived paycheck-to-paycheck before retirement, so a regular paycheck isn't a big deal to us.

- I agree with moving money into a Roth when we're in a low (for us) marginal FIT position. I once thought we should aggressively move even more money into Roths, but I see a small tax advantage in tIRAs for nursing home expenses.

- I'm not sure that I'd be comfortable saying "we can handle 5 years of LTC expenses out of pocket, after that we'll just make something up". I might work a couple more years instead. Other people are more risk tolerant.
 
I haven't done it this way at all, but I think the items he mentions are good to consider. Never liked buckets, but I've seen it explained where it could work (assuming typical ups and downs - not prolonged downs.) YMMV
 
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