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Revisiting Firecalc?
Old 11-11-2022, 09:17 AM   #1
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Revisiting Firecalc?

Let's start off by saying that, like the 4% "rule", most of us here use FireCalc as a guide more than a firm set of 'down to the dollar' results.

So, back 17 years ago when I first RE'd, I stumbled upon FireCalc, ran my portfolio balance with an age 95 end point. I've tried, succeeded and often failed to stay close to the guidelines, some years better than others.

I've often played with FC along the way more of a distraction than trying to update my results.

Now, at age 70 my portfolio is double what it was and I'm 17 years closer to my age 95 end point than I was back then.

Is there any value in re-evaluating FC's results with new inputs? Do the original results still hold?

At this point, I know it really doesn't matter but more interested from an academic standpoint.
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Old 11-11-2022, 09:19 AM   #2
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I run all the retirement calculators I originally used from time to time, not out of worry, but for giggles and kicks.
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Old 11-11-2022, 09:55 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by COcheesehead View Post
I run all the retirement calculators I originally used from time to time, not out of worry, but for giggles and kicks.

Me too!! I just like to see numbers and how they are affected by time.

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Old 11-11-2022, 10:06 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marko View Post
...Now, at age 70 my portfolio is double what it was and I'm 17 years closer to my age 95 end point than I was back then.

Is there any value in re-evaluating FC's results with new inputs? Do the original results still hold? ...
What you might be interested in is to run it and using the Investigate tab select the option to calculate the spending level for a 95% success rate... I'm betting that you can safely spend much more than you are currently spending.
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Old 11-11-2022, 10:41 AM   #5
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It does not matter if you retired 17 years ago or 17 minutes ago, the value of FireCalc telling you how your money *may* do, from this point forward for N years (based on history), is still valid. I re-run mine, based on my current assets, every year. It gives piece of mind.
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Old 11-11-2022, 11:23 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by marko View Post

Now, at age 70 my portfolio is double what it was and I'm 17 years closer to my age 95 end point than I was back then.

Appreciate the historical context of your remarks… kinda shocked that FIRECALC was around 17 years ago… curious what your AA was back then and what it is now if you don’t mind sharing.

In addition to FIRECALC I hired two financial advisors (stupid I know but my spouse liked some 3rd party reassurance) and they gave us a thumbs up.
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Old 11-11-2022, 11:36 AM   #7
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Thanks Marco

Much appreciated for your feedback on Firecalc for your specific case particulars vs time frame.
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Old 11-11-2022, 11:43 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
What you might be interested in is to run it and using the Investigate tab select the option to calculate the spending level for a 95% success rate... I'm betting that you can safely spend much more than you are currently spending.

I was looking to play around with the investigate option yesterday. I can't find it anymore. Is it still an option?
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Old 11-11-2022, 11:50 AM   #9
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I run it at the end of each year when I look at the upcoming year's spending estimates. I probably don't need to since my net worth has doubled since I retired in 2016, but it is a good check on where my spending is vs the historical max for my portfolio amount.

It is simply one more thing that helps me sleep better.

PS = congrats on the financially successful retirement!
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Old 11-11-2022, 11:55 AM   #10
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Sure. Why not?
I play with Fidelity planner every now and then. Expenses and expectations change along with portfolio size.

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Old 11-11-2022, 12:12 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camfused View Post
It does not matter if you retired 17 years ago or 17 minutes ago, the value of FireCalc telling you how your money *may* do, from this point forward for N years (based on history), is still valid. I re-run mine, based on my current assets, every year. It gives piece of mind.


I do the same.
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Old 11-11-2022, 12:25 PM   #12
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I do the same.
Same here. I also like to run what ifs and stress test my results.
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Old 11-11-2022, 12:30 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by camfused View Post
It does not matter if you retired 17 years ago or 17 minutes ago, the value of FireCalc telling you how your money *may* do, from this point forward for N years (based on history), is still valid. I re-run mine, based on my current assets, every year. It gives piece of mind.
Yes, but the issue is that the portfolio has doubled and the timeline in which to spend it has shrunk. See Pb4uski below

Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
What you might be interested in is to run it and using the Investigate tab select the option to calculate the spending level for a 95% success rate... I'm betting that you can safely spend much more than you are currently spending.
Correct. That is exactly what I've seen. If I was 94 years old with a 95 end point, I'd be BTD in a big way!!

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Originally Posted by RetiredAt49 View Post
Appreciate the historical context of your remarks… kinda shocked that FIRECALC was around 17 years ago… curious what your AA was back then and what it is now if you don’t mind sharing.
70/30 with a bit of cash set aside in a MM fund. Was originally 60/40 but 2008 emboldened me for the better.
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Old 11-11-2022, 12:49 PM   #14
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I was looking to play around with the investigate option yesterday. I can't find it anymore. Is it still an option?
It is the last tab in Firecalc.
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Old 11-11-2022, 12:50 PM   #15
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I love the financial calculators and run Fidelity and Firecalc multiple times a year, as the math also intrigues me.
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Old 11-11-2022, 12:53 PM   #16
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It is the last tab in Firecalc.

That tab doesn't appear in FireFox. I opened it in Chrome and there it is! Weird.
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Old 11-11-2022, 12:58 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
What you might be interested in is to run it and using the Investigate tab select the option to calculate the spending level for a 95% success rate... I'm betting that you can safely spend much more than you are currently spending.
hey, thanks for that tip! I had never done that before. Using that as a guide (I know it's just a guide), I could spend a *lot* more than I am currently spending. Good news is that gives me a ton of comfort to weather (almost) any financial storm I may encounter.
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Old 11-11-2022, 01:49 PM   #18
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Keep in mind that 95% success in Firecalc is based on the 4% WR guidance.
This 4% guidance failure has not been tested severely since one who retired in 1966, so all good for now.
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Old 11-11-2022, 02:20 PM   #19
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It is the last tab in Firecalc.

You need to login in order to see the Investigate tab. Creating a login (IIRC) requires a small donation.
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Old 11-11-2022, 02:25 PM   #20
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You need to login in order to see the Investigate tab. Creating a login (IIRC) requires a small donation.
Creating a login does NOT require a donation.
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