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11-11-2022, 09:17 AM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 7,327
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Revisiting Firecalc?
Let's start off by saying that, like the 4% "rule", most of us here use FireCalc as a guide more than a firm set of 'down to the dollar' results.
So, back 17 years ago when I first RE'd, I stumbled upon FireCalc, ran my portfolio balance with an age 95 end point. I've tried, succeeded and often failed to stay close to the guidelines, some years better than others.
I've often played with FC along the way more of a distraction than trying to update my results.
Now, at age 70 my portfolio is double what it was and I'm 17 years closer to my age 95 end point than I was back then.
Is there any value in re-evaluating FC's results with new inputs? Do the original results still hold?
At this point, I know it really doesn't matter but more interested from an academic standpoint.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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11-11-2022, 09:19 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 6,301
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I run all the retirement calculators I originally used from time to time, not out of worry, but for giggles and kicks.
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11-11-2022, 09:55 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Morton
Posts: 2,328
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead
I run all the retirement calculators I originally used from time to time, not out of worry, but for giggles and kicks.
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Me too!! I just like to see numbers and how they are affected by time.
VW
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
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11-11-2022, 10:06 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 32,885
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
...Now, at age 70 my portfolio is double what it was and I'm 17 years closer to my age 95 end point than I was back then.
Is there any value in re-evaluating FC's results with new inputs? Do the original results still hold? ...
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What you might be interested in is to run it and using the Investigate tab select the option to calculate the spending level for a 95% success rate... I'm betting that you can safely spend much more than you are currently spending.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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11-11-2022, 10:41 AM
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#5
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 826
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It does not matter if you retired 17 years ago or 17 minutes ago, the value of FireCalc telling you how your money *may* do, from this point forward for N years (based on history), is still valid. I re-run mine, based on my current assets, every year. It gives piece of mind.
__________________
FIREd at 59.5 on 2019-01-18
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11-11-2022, 11:23 AM
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#6
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2021
Posts: 247
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
Now, at age 70 my portfolio is double what it was and I'm 17 years closer to my age 95 end point than I was back then.
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Appreciate the historical context of your remarks… kinda shocked that FIRECALC was around 17 years ago… curious what your AA was back then and what it is now if you don’t mind sharing.
In addition to FIRECALC I hired two financial advisors (stupid I know but my spouse liked some 3rd party reassurance) and they gave us a thumbs up.
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11-11-2022, 11:36 AM
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#7
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Spring, Texas
Posts: 440
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Thanks Marco
Much appreciated for your feedback on Firecalc for your specific case particulars vs time frame.
__________________
Retired 1-Feb-21 at age 61
AA 50/30/20 ish....
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11-11-2022, 11:43 AM
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#8
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Anaheim
Posts: 161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
What you might be interested in is to run it and using the Investigate tab select the option to calculate the spending level for a 95% success rate... I'm betting that you can safely spend much more than you are currently spending.
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I was looking to play around with the investigate option yesterday. I can't find it anymore. Is it still an option?
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11-11-2022, 11:50 AM
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#9
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 668
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I run it at the end of each year when I look at the upcoming year's spending estimates. I probably don't need to since my net worth has doubled since I retired in 2016, but it is a good check on where my spending is vs the historical max for my portfolio amount.
It is simply one more thing that helps me sleep better.
PS = congrats on the financially successful retirement!
__________________
“If you don't do it this year, you will be one year older when you do.” - Warren Miller
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11-11-2022, 11:55 AM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,354
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Sure. Why not?
I play with Fidelity planner every now and then. Expenses and expectations change along with portfolio size.
Sent from my LM-Q850 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
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11-11-2022, 12:12 PM
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#11
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Fairfield County, CT
Posts: 436
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camfused
It does not matter if you retired 17 years ago or 17 minutes ago, the value of FireCalc telling you how your money *may* do, from this point forward for N years (based on history), is still valid. I re-run mine, based on my current assets, every year. It gives piece of mind.
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I do the same.
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11-11-2022, 12:25 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bltkmt
I do the same.
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Same here. I also like to run what ifs and stress test my results.
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11-11-2022, 12:30 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 7,327
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camfused
It does not matter if you retired 17 years ago or 17 minutes ago, the value of FireCalc telling you how your money *may* do, from this point forward for N years (based on history), is still valid. I re-run mine, based on my current assets, every year. It gives piece of mind.
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Yes, but the issue is that the portfolio has doubled and the timeline in which to spend it has shrunk. See Pb4uski below
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
What you might be interested in is to run it and using the Investigate tab select the option to calculate the spending level for a 95% success rate... I'm betting that you can safely spend much more than you are currently spending.
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Correct. That is exactly what I've seen. If I was 94 years old with a 95 end point, I'd be BTD in a big way!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by RetiredAt49
Appreciate the historical context of your remarks… kinda shocked that FIRECALC was around 17 years ago… curious what your AA was back then and what it is now if you don’t mind sharing.
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70/30 with a bit of cash set aside in a MM fund. Was originally 60/40 but 2008 emboldened me for the better.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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11-11-2022, 12:49 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 10,101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pointby2
I was looking to play around with the investigate option yesterday. I can't find it anymore. Is it still an option?
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It is the last tab in Firecalc.
__________________
TGIM
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11-11-2022, 12:50 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 10,101
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I love the financial calculators and run Fidelity and Firecalc multiple times a year, as the math also intrigues me.
__________________
TGIM
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11-11-2022, 12:53 PM
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#16
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Anaheim
Posts: 161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail
It is the last tab in Firecalc.
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That tab doesn't appear in FireFox. I opened it in Chrome and there it is! Weird.
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11-11-2022, 12:58 PM
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#17
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 271
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
What you might be interested in is to run it and using the Investigate tab select the option to calculate the spending level for a 95% success rate... I'm betting that you can safely spend much more than you are currently spending.
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hey, thanks for that tip! I had never done that before. Using that as a guide (I know it's just a guide), I could spend a *lot* more than I am currently spending. Good news is that gives me a ton of comfort to weather (almost) any financial storm I may encounter.
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11-11-2022, 01:49 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 10,101
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Keep in mind that 95% success in Firecalc is based on the 4% WR guidance.
This 4% guidance failure has not been tested severely since one who retired in 1966, so all good for now.
__________________
TGIM
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11-11-2022, 02:20 PM
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#19
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail
It is the last tab in Firecalc.
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You need to login in order to see the Investigate tab. Creating a login (IIRC) requires a small donation.
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11-11-2022, 02:25 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 10,101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kabowest
You need to login in order to see the Investigate tab. Creating a login (IIRC) requires a small donation.
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Creating a login does NOT require a donation.
__________________
TGIM
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