arebelspy
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Thinking about the changes from '96 to now, you really think it'll be similar to now in 2026?
Rough day on the street today
- Thread starter Purron
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Thinking about the changes from '96 to now, you really think it'll be similar to now in 2026?
What has really changed for Microsoft's business since '96?
They still sell Windows and Office, and have a near monopoly market share in the business world for those products.
They've experienced a large amount of growth on the server side of the business, and have a promising new business with the X-box/Kinect product.
They waste money trying to compete in search, and periodically try to waste a lot of money on goofy stuff (Skype, Yahoo).
I suspect that if you go into a corporate office in 2026, you will see Windows 15 on the desktop and Office 2024 running on it. They'll still be wasting money trying to get into a business that they have no advantage in (hopefully it won't still be search).
People are talking about the fast pace of change, but large businesses really don't change unless they absolutely have to. Most of the businesses that I have worked for are still stuck using their Mainframes because it is too painful to change. They aren't going to move away from Windows and Office anytime soon.
They still sell Windows and Office, and have a near monopoly market share in the business world for those products.
They've experienced a large amount of growth on the server side of the business, and have a promising new business with the X-box/Kinect product.
They waste money trying to compete in search, and periodically try to waste a lot of money on goofy stuff (Skype, Yahoo).
I suspect that if you go into a corporate office in 2026, you will see Windows 15 on the desktop and Office 2024 running on it. They'll still be wasting money trying to get into a business that they have no advantage in (hopefully it won't still be search).
People are talking about the fast pace of change, but large businesses really don't change unless they absolutely have to. Most of the businesses that I have worked for are still stuck using their Mainframes because it is too painful to change. They aren't going to move away from Windows and Office anytime soon.
Steve Jobs is an innovator, but Microsoft is not an innovative company, and will never be one.
Steve Jobs would be a horrible fit for Microsoft.
Microsoft needs to keep milking their existing cash cows while avoiding making large missteps. I don't think Steve Jobs would be satisfied doing that.
If you want innovation, buy Apple. It's worked out very well, and it will continue to work out well as long as they stay innovative.
The beauty of Microsoft's business is that they don't have to innovate to make money.
Steve Jobs would be a horrible fit for Microsoft.
Microsoft needs to keep milking their existing cash cows while avoiding making large missteps. I don't think Steve Jobs would be satisfied doing that.
If you want innovation, buy Apple. It's worked out very well, and it will continue to work out well as long as they stay innovative.
The beauty of Microsoft's business is that they don't have to innovate to make money.
Microsoft's business was founded on innovation and then grew based on clever marketing. Now it is doing neither. It doesn't need to innovate to make money, but it does need to innovate to survive.
What they did to IBM is now being done to them, and basically for the same reason - they are focused on preserving what they have while the world is evolving.
MS clearly acknowledges this with its efforts to break into new markets. Its inability to replicate the success it had with Windows or Office shows that they have not been able to turn those achievements into core competencies.
They may be able to change this. To do so, however, they first need to change their senior executive team.
Hey, all IBM had to do was say "Oh, by the way, that's an exclusive license for IBM PCs... and can you show us how you've copyrighted your DOS? 'Cause we've heard some bad things about your BASIC interpreter, and we're not sure this is gonna work out."
One of many opportunities IBM missed. Actually, what I should have said was ...
What IBM did to itself Microsoft is now doing to itself...
teejayevans
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Lets talk Xerox:
They had ethernet, PC with GUI interface using a mouse, all pre IBMPC days...their management laughed at the engineers stating "who would want a computer on their desk connected to other computers".
Real visionaries they were.
IBM:
the driving force of the IBM PC who was a VP at the time died in a plane crash in Texas, after that no executive really wanted it, because mainframes were the place to be!!
Another IBM story, IBM had it's own network protocol (SNA), the executive at the time (1990) stated the internet would be SNA in 5 years. 5 years later, she was fired, and SNA was all but dead. And IBM's IP routers were years behind a start-up called CISCO.
What can we take away from these stories, good visionarys in management is hard to find, that's what makes Jobs special.
TJ
What I take away from the IBM story is that a company can be a decent investment without having a shred of vision. 
I hate IBM with a passion from my professional life, but they make a lot of money simply because large companies have huge switching costs. They still make money from Lotus Notes and Mainframes
At current prices, Microsoft doesn't need to innovate to be a really good investment. They just need to keep milking the Windows and Office cows.
If they manage to stumble into a winner like X-box/Kinnect, so much the better.
I hate IBM with a passion from my professional life, but they make a lot of money simply because large companies have huge switching costs. They still make money from Lotus Notes and Mainframes
At current prices, Microsoft doesn't need to innovate to be a really good investment. They just need to keep milking the Windows and Office cows.
If they manage to stumble into a winner like X-box/Kinnect, so much the better.
