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01-16-2016, 07:21 AM
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#61
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,359
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy
He might have lost his appetite if he knew it was going to be his last meal. Not sure what I'd do if I knew I only had hours to live, but eating probably wouldn't be high on my list.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ls99
I highly doubt that as one's lights are going out any consideration of the last meal's quality is considered.
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Dad's point was that you should live as well as you can each day.
As the 80's band Shooting Star once wrote: "Today could be your last chance to be good to yourself..."
Uncle was a miser who could've afforded a great meal every day...his last meal on earth was a crappy Chop Suey sandwich and a can of Coke. What a sad way to leave.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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01-16-2016, 07:26 AM
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#62
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 7,586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M Paquette
So, will RBS make a "Buy everything!" announcement? At a price lower than the ones when they said "Sell everything!" Somehow I have my doubts.
Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
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When I see this type of volatility, it makes me suspect institutional traders are playing a role in driving the market down to get the weak hands to sell, so they can buy back at lower levels. At least the US economy does not yet smack of recession, so I am not ready to panic from this correction. It would only take OPEC cutting output or another form of disruption in the oil supply chain to make things take off again, although that sounds almost counter-intuitive.
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01-16-2016, 07:58 AM
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#63
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DFW_M5
When I see this type of volatility, it makes me suspect institutional traders are playing a role in driving the market down to get the weak hands to sell, so they can buy back at lower levels. At least the US economy does not yet smack of recession, so I am not ready to panic from this correction. It would only take OPEC cutting output or another form of disruption in the oil supply chain to make things take off again, although that sounds almost counter-intuitive.
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Actually, I think the institutional traders drove the markets way up with the "Fed put" of QE and low rates. Now that the party is over, some of the hot air is coming out of the balloon. Oil price crash helped spur this on, as has China representing slowing global growth. To me the current action just says the US equity markets got way ahead of themselves.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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01-16-2016, 10:03 AM
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#64
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 7,586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Actually, I think the institutional traders drove the markets way up with the "Fed put" of QE and low rates. Now that the party is over, some of the hot air is coming out of the balloon. Oil price crash helped spur this on, as has China representing slowing global growth. To me the current action just says the US equity markets got way ahead of themselves.
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Yes, but they work it both up and down, which can lead the average joe investor to make bad decisions and certainly the Fed is culpable as well.
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01-16-2016, 11:43 AM
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#65
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Austin
Posts: 661
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DFW_M5
When I see this type of volatility, it makes me suspect institutional traders are playing a role in driving the market down to get the weak hands to sell, so they can buy back at lower levels....
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I've often wondered the same thing. Nobody makes money in a stagnant market and the heavyweights are certainly in a position where they can influence a rise or fall. I'm just hoping the fund managers for the Vanguard funds I have are players on the field rather than observers in the stadium and are snatching up the good deals right now.
__________________
ER'd 6/1/2014 @ age 53. Wow, is it already 2022?
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01-16-2016, 12:07 PM
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#66
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: northern Michigan
Posts: 2,213
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Actually, I think the institutional traders drove the markets way up with the "Fed put" of QE and low rates. Now that the party is over, some of the hot air is coming out of the balloon. Oil price crash helped spur this on, as has China representing slowing global growth. To me the current action just says the US equity markets got way ahead of themselves.
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+1. Totally agree with you, Audrey. Everyone is talking about China and oil as the cause for this, but in my view they merely acted as catalysts.......the real driving force behind this drop is that the markets got way ahead of themselves because of the actions of the FED these last 7-8 years.
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01-16-2016, 12:19 PM
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#67
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,001
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Institutional traders are just as likely to be caught leaning the wrong way. When they get out of their bad positions, it often causes a lot of market turmoil.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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01-16-2016, 12:56 PM
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#68
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
... To me the current action just says the US equity markets got way ahead of themselves.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RAE
+1. Totally agree with you, Audrey. Everyone is talking about China and oil as the cause for this, but in my view they merely acted as catalysts.......the real driving force behind this drop is that the markets got way ahead of themselves because of the actions of the FED these last 7-8 years.
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So, are we now agreeing with Shiller when he said the US market was (is still?) overvalued?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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01-16-2016, 01:02 PM
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#69
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
So, are we now agreeing with Shiller when he said the US market was (is still?) overvalued?
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He probably thinks it's way more overvalued than I do. He probably thinks early 2009 levels were fairly valued, but all of the recovery was overvalued, just like the entire period from 1990.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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01-16-2016, 01:05 PM
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#70
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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But early 2009 was at the bottom of the market. Besides, Shiller was either selling stocks or buying put options as he hinted in an interview I shared a month or two ago. So, he must have held stock or bought since 2009 to have something to sell.
PS. It is true that the market is always overvalued at the top of the market, and undervalued at the bottom of the market. The problem is if one tries to talk about it, the ardent followers of the EMH will cry out "dirty market timing". They sneer at anyone who even expresses an opinion on market valuation. It's a religion, and the act of talking about P/E is considered blasphemy. And recently, when even Bogle said that the future market return will be subdued (which has nothing to do with market timing), they even revolted and called him names.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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01-16-2016, 01:45 PM
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#71
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,580
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
So, are we now agreeing with Shiller when he said the US market was (is still?) overvalued?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
He probably thinks it's way more overvalued than I do. He probably thinks early 2009 levels were fairly valued, but all of the recovery was overvalued, just like the entire period from 1990.
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GMO uses Shiller PE in it's valuation methodology, their projections show US markets still richly valued but international developed with some potential for real growth and EM with lots of upside - if you can stomach the volatility.
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01-16-2016, 01:50 PM
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#72
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 7,586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Institutional traders are just as likely to be caught leaning the wrong way. When they get out of their bad positions, it often causes a lot of market turmoil.
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Alls I am saying is that despite the oil glut and China, Institutional Investors are contributing to the volatility and wild swings and are taking advantage at everyone elses expense, but certainly are not the main cause for the balloon getting filled and deflated.
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01-16-2016, 01:51 PM
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#73
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DFW_M5
Alls I am saying is that despite the oil glut and China, Institutional Investors are contributing to the volatility and wild swings and are taking advantage at everyone elses expense, but certainly are not the main cause for the balloon getting filled and deflated.
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I think they are the main cause for the balloon getting filled and deflated.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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01-16-2016, 01:55 PM
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#74
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
GMO uses Shiller PE in it's valuation methodology, their projections show US markets still richly valued but international developed with some potential for real growth and EM with lots of upside - if you can stomach the volatility.
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I had plenty of international and EM stocks. That was one of the contributors to my portfolio underperforming the S&P in 2014 and 2015. I lightened up quite a bit a few months ago, and they still dropped worse than the S&P. I am watching to rebuy the same at a lower price.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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01-16-2016, 02:19 PM
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#75
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,580
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I had plenty of international and EM stocks. That was one of the contributors to my portfolio underperforming the S&P in 2014 and 2015. I lightened up quite a bit a few months ago, and they still dropped worse than the S&P. I am watching to rebuy the same at a lower price.
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Same here. I'm beefing up nonetheless, thought that will probably lead to more underperformance in 2016.
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Royal Bank of Scotland Says "Sell Everything"
01-16-2016, 02:26 PM
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#76
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 1,577
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Royal Bank of Scotland Says "Sell Everything"
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
He probably thinks it's way more overvalued than I do. He probably thinks early 2009 levels were fairly valued, but all of the recovery was overvalued, just like the entire period from 1990.
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Last time I read him he thought it should be somewhere in the 1300s I think.
Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
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01-16-2016, 02:42 PM
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#77
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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I watched Willie Nelson get his Gershwin award last night on local PBS here before Charlie Rose opened with a segment on the stock market with three 'experts'.
I like Willie.
And the part where my Target Retirement 'computers' automatically re-balance on the way down and up without my watching, making any decisions, or saying anything.
heh heh heh - 1966-2006 before full auto - hindsight says I should have spent more time listening to Willie instead of all that stock stuff.
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01-16-2016, 06:11 PM
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#78
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
Same here. I'm beefing up nonetheless, thought that will probably lead to more underperformance in 2016.
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Underperforming the S&P in a bullish year means making less than the market.
The above is nowhere as bad as underperforming in a bad year, and losing even more money than the S&P. That would hurt like the Dickens.
PS. By the way, Vanguard's EM ETF, VWO, has a P/E of 12 and a yield of 3.24%. In contrast, the S&P has a P/E of 17 and a yield of 2.06%.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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01-16-2016, 07:08 PM
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#79
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,967
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I just saw another doomsday prediction "Dow is going to fall by 80%". All these big institutions are probably paying writers/analyst to come out with predictions that everyone should get out, or suffer. These big guys have to make some money, and they probably got out early and wants to buy. Apple has low institutional holdings and I see tons of negative publicity about Apple. These guys want to buy at a cheap price and shaking up the weak hands.
__________________
No to consumerism, Living a simple life, enjoying the experience - not the material stuff
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01-16-2016, 07:18 PM
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#80
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,967
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sansha
If you don't time it at it's lowest, if you think the market is going to rebound, you'll stiill be that much ahead when it does.
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Are you saying you can time the market at the lowest level ? Good luck with that.
__________________
No to consumerism, Living a simple life, enjoying the experience - not the material stuff
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