S&P 500 has worst decade ever.

[Remediator]

I saw this article this morning and think the analysis is really interesting. Anybody have a spreadsheet that does this monthly calculation yet?

It looks to me like the return over the previous 10 years might get worse over the next 18 months, as between Feb 1999 and Aug 2000, the S&P 500 gained 25.8%. Unless the market can gain its footing again soon, we may be seeing back calculated 10 year returns continuing to set new records (in a bad way) for a while.

 

[ziggy29]

It looks to me like the return over the previous 10 years might get worse over the next 18 months, as between Feb 1999 and Aug 2000, the S&P 500 gained 25.8%. Unless the market can gain its footing again soon, we may be seeing back calculated 10 year returns continuing to set new records (in a bad way) for a while.

Yes, it stands to reason that unless the market rebounds quickly, the rolling 10-year return will keep getting worse until early 2010, which is 10 years after the tech bubble popped.

 

[Bimmerbill]

Maybe the next decade will be the best ever?

 

[ziggy29]

Maybe the next decade will be the best ever?

You never know. If you believe in "reversion to the mean" and the secular bear/secular bull cycles, then maybe the next decade could be pretty good. If you believe in "it's different this time," then maybe not.

 

[haha]

You never know. If you believe in "reversion to the mean" and the secular bear/secular bull cycles, then maybe the next decade could be pretty good. If you believe in "it's different this time," then maybe not.

Tell us ziggy, what do you believe?

Ha

 

[youbet]

You never know. If you believe in "reversion to the mean" and the secular bear/secular bull cycles, then maybe the next decade could be pretty good. If you believe in "it's different this time," then maybe not.

Like you Ziggy, I often look at the numbers and the graphs and the charts to try to vision what the future will bring. But then I remember that the "numbers" are really a function of the real world and not of their own historical values.

In the next decade, if we have negative issues with natural resources, war, industry, agriculture and all the other drivers of the "numbers," won't those factors be the true basis of our economic well being rather than "reversion to the mean" or any other mathematical/statistical description of past conditions?

Personally I see no reasons going forward (such as increased industrial output, technology that improves our utilization of natural resources, population control or other demographics, etc.) that would call for "good times" for the inhabitants of our fair planet. And this despite whatever anyone sees in the "numbers."

 

[ziggy29]

Tell us Iggy, what do you believe?

I believe that I don't know. Why are you being so testy with me today?

 

[haha]

But then I remember that the "numbers" are really a function of the real world and not of their own historical values.

No doubt that this is true, it has to be. When the world starts to come out of the current slump if we should find that the oil price shoots up to $150 again we will have a big piece of negative information.

Unless of course we have positioned ourselves to profit from this.

But our entire human experience is tucked into some unknown period before entropy knocks us out for good. Historically it has been impossible to predict when we are down for the count, vs. just down for a while.

IMO, it's best on a personal level to let 'er rip, make the best decisions we can, have the most pleasure we can so that if we get whacked we can at least think that life had it's good points.

Ha

 

[haha]

I believe that I don't know. Why are you being so testy with me today?

Hello? it's testy to inquire as to what your opinion on this is? Maybe I respect your opinion and would like to know what it is?

 

[ziggy29]

Personally I see no reasons going forward (such as increased industrial output, technology that improves our utilization of natural resources, population control or other demographics, etc.) that would call for "good times" for the inhabitants of our fair planet. And this despite whatever anyone sees in the "numbers."

Many times we see nothing before something major suddenly transforms society and the economy. I wouldn't bet against the human spirit in this regard, not in the very long term.

 

[ziggy29]

Hello? it's testy to inquire as to what your opinion on this is? Maybe I respect your opinion and would like to know what it is?

My apologies if I misinterpreted but it felt like I was being challenged. My crystal ball is as murky as anyone's, really. But maybe I could use it to break a vending machine and get free Doritos.

 

[youbet]

Many times we see nothing before something major suddenly transforms society and the economy. I wouldn't bet against the human spirit in this regard, not in the very long term.

It's sometimes difficult to get all that excited about "the very long term" when you're 61 and almost 3 yrs into retirement. I'm pulling for the next decade to allow DW and I to enjoy life as we planned.......

I believe in the timeframe I'm most concerned about, one's ability to increase the relative size of his/her slice of the pie will be more important than the size of the pie itself.

We have some difficult times ahead of us. It's truly difficult to vision the world's aggregate GDP/capita increasing in the near term.

 

[Gpond]

I listened to Jim Puplava's podcast this morning while I was exercising. He said money markets have beaten the S&P 500 since 1996 (13 years and counting).

 

[harley]

In the next decade, if we have negative issues with natural resources, war, industry, agriculture and all the other drivers of the "numbers," won't those factors be the true basis of our economic well being rather than "reversion to the mean" or any other mathematical/statistical description of past conditions?

Personally I see no reasons going forward (such as increased industrial output, technology that improves our utilization of natural resources, population control or other demographics, etc.) that would call for "good times" for the inhabitants of our fair planet. And this despite whatever anyone sees in the "numbers."

According to the many of the books I have read over the years, the various bull/bear cycles are directly related to the advent of new technology, followed by acceptance and widespread use of the technology, followed by over-purchasing of companies making use of the technology, followed by bubbles bursting and recession/depression periods. I don't think that right now I could make a prediction going forward on what might drive our future economy, but I am willing to predict that something will. Unless we're on the way out as a species, and even then I predict a number of dead human bounces.

 

[Remediator]

Maybe the next decade will be the best ever?

It may not be a shock that I don't know what the future will bring either, but regression to the mean does seem to have worked (in reverse) in the recent past:

The best 20 year period in history? 1980 - 1999
The worst 10 year period in history? 2000 - 2009 (probably).

 

[Darryl]

I believe I'll have a beer??

After carefully studying Maurice's graph I am ready to forecast.

1959 top to 1974 bottom - roughly 15 years

1974 - 1984 bouncing around in the gutter/stalled - about 8-10 years

1985 bottom to 2000 top - roughly 15 years

2000 top to 2015? bottom - would be 15 years

2015 to 2018 - stall

2018 I retire into a great bull market run of 15 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Of course this could just be wishful thinking.