S&P 500 Prediction 2023?

[F.I.R.E User]

6000 by end of year.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markola I’m happily wrong about post #94 but right about #96, not that it was very debatable.

Post #96 was excellent!

[finnski1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jollystomper For the 2nd quarter, the S&P 500 advanced to the Beautiful Day division at 4450.38. finnski1 (4444) currently has the closest prediction. It's a beautiful day, we hope it doesn't slip away...

Hey. I forgot all about this poll. What did I win?
I mean after all you win in Superbowl picks for the half time score.

[Markola]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Post #96 was excellent!

[emoji5] We’ve all had lots of practice, unfortunately.

[kcowan]

My guess was 4560 so I need a pause/downturn to make it to December! Prefer a minor correction. but a deep dive will eliminate my interest in any contest.

[sengsational]

Up 17% and we're half way through.



I hereby predict, based on 2 * 17 that Gumby will win.

[W2R]

I have no idea what the S&P 500 will be, oh well! My guess is that it will go down, and up, and down, and up... like always. The stock market roller coaster.

Luckily I tend to live happily on mostly just my SS, mini-pension and RMDs, so the S&P 500 really doesn't make a huge difference to me personally. It's great entertainment, I must admit. And really, these days life is all about getting the maximum fun out of the years I have left.

[Gremlin]

Quote:

Originally Posted by sengsational Up 17% and we're half way through. I hereby predict, based on 2 * 17 that Gumby will win.

As good a metric as any I’ve seen so far!

[jollystomper]

Despite stumbling a bit rounding third base, the S&P 500 remained within the Beautiful Day division at 4288.05, so we have not yet let it get away.

Currently Foghorn Leghorn(4275) has the closest prediction to the index.

Homestretch time! Will the market move in mysterious ways to make us happy, or will we be stuck in a moment we can't get out of? Time will tell...

[ducky911]

With 5 weeks to go Beautiful Day group looks strong for the win!

Quote:

Originally Posted by jollystomper To pass the time during commercials and halftime of the Seahawks-49ers game, I summarized all of the guesses in this thread. Rather than put out one huge table, I have segmented the guesses into Divisions. Each division is named after a U2 single whose title I feel best describes the sentiment of the guesses in that division. If there is a mistake in your screen name or guess, let me know, this was typed while watching football. If you object to a division name, hey, this is just mindless fun - feel free to repost with your own segmentation/division names based on whatever you want. Sunday Bloody Sunday Division (9 guesses) Name guess percent change ShokWaveRider 2000 -47.9% bmurphy 2100 -45.3% pb4uski 3000 -21.9% FLSUnFIRE 3072 -20.0% freedom2022 3200 -16.7% DFW_M5 3305 -13.9% 11522914 3338 -13.1% Hank 3369 -12.3% Freedom56 3420 -10.9% Numb Division (11 guesses) Name guess percent change mmurphy 3500 -8.8% Beststash 3506 -8.7% Mr. Tightwad 3516 -8.4% Pointby2 3525 -8.2% 24601NoMore 3600 -6.2% gooddog 3600 -6.2% GenXguy 3620 -5.7% Born2Fish 3650.22 -4.9% almost there 3721 -3.1% Rowej 3780 -1.5% Rocky mtn high 3800 -1.0% Desire Division (14 guesses) Name guess percent change 38Chevy454 3975 3.5% Lakedog 3993 4.0% yhoomajor 4001.28 4.2% N02L84ER 4005 4.3% rrs26ja 4015 4.6% GravitySucks 4032 5.0% aaronc879 4033 5.0% PatrickA5 4034 5.1% Taco 4042 5.3% NW_Bound 4100 6.8% dmpi 4110 7.0% Reese 4122 7.4% Al18 4133 7.6% Markola 4143 7.9% Beautiful Day Division (22 guesses) Name guess percent change jollystomper 4223 10.0% SecondCor521 4223.45 10.0% audreyh1 4250 10.7% Dreamer 4269 11.2% MichealKnight 4270 11.2% Foghorn Leghorn 4275 11.3% Toast 4315 12.4% Sjhawkins 4321 12.5% latexman 4327.55 12.7% Go-NoGo 4376 14.0% tulak 4400 14.6% SloHan 4415 15.0% ducky911 4419 15.1% Dash man 4430 15.4% finnski1 4444 15.7% Car-Guy 4500 17.2% mebden 4500 17.2% Out-to-Lunch 4512 17.5% teejayevans 4545 18.4% Closet_Gamer 4550 18.5% Rickt 4550 18.5% braumeister 4560 18.8% Even Better Than The Real Thing Division (6 guesses) Name guess percent change kgtest 4750 23.7% Jerry1 4796 24.9% Ronbusa3 4799 25.0% Gumby 5123 33.4% retire2020 5325 38.7% sengsational 6001 56.3%

[jollystomper]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ducky911 With 5 weeks to go Beautiful Day group looks strong for the win!

Yes indeed - almost a 5% rise is needed to make it to Even Better Than the Real Thing, and more than a 7% drop is needed to place it into Desire territory .

[Jerry1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jollystomper Yes indeed - almost a 5% rise is needed to make it to Even Better Than the Real Thing, and more than a 7% drop is needed to place it into Desire territory .

Looking for that Santa rally.

[SecondCor521]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ducky911 With 5 weeks to go Beautiful Day group looks strong for the win!

I'd like to submit a request to management to consider my second guess (+20%). I hedged my bets just like the folks on CNBC.

[Gumby]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jerry1 Looking for that Santa rally.

I say 12% between now and 12/31/23 is not too much to ask.

[latexman]

Personally, I’m 🙏 for sengsational’s prediction!

[Chuckanut]

If we can get back to the previous S&P high, continue with approximately 5% CDs, and keep inflation at 3% max, I will declare victory and go home.

[teejayevans]

Off by less than 15, I need to go on CNBC. :-)

[erkevin]

It will go up, down , or remain the same.

[jollystomper]

With a month to go, the S&P 500, at 4,567.80, finds itself just above the Beautiful Day division, and below the Even Better Than the Real Thing division.

braumeister's 4,560 prediction is currently the closest, just 7.8 points (0.17%) below the November close.

From a growth standpoint, if the S&P closes higher at the end of December, braumeister will remain the closest if the gain is less than 1.9%. With a gain above 1.9%, kgtest, Jerry1, and Ronbusa3 are the likely prediction contenders.

Of course, if the index goes goes down, there are more prediction contenders, as six others (Car-Guy, mebden, Out-to-Lunch, teejayevans, Closet_Gamer, Rickt) are within a 2% drop from the current level... but (assuming we all have not gone 100% Treasuries, Bonds, Money Markets, and CDs at this point in the year) we would not want that, would we?

[Out-to-Lunch]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jollystomper Of course, if the index goes goes down, there are more prediction contenders, as six others (Car-Guy, mebden, Out-to-Lunch, teejayevans, Closet_Gamer, Rickt) are within a 2% drop from the current level... but (assuming we all have not gone 100% Treasuries, Bonds, Money Markets, and CDs at this point in the year) we would not want that, would we?

No, we don't. I will happily forgo my chance at fame, and instead defer to those who guessed above me!