|
|
S&P Cumulative Total Return Lags T-Bills From 1997!
11-04-2008, 11:17 AM
|
#1
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
|
S&P Cumulative Total Return Lags T-Bills From 1997!
This graph from John Hussman:
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Value Dinosaurs - November 3, 2008
It can look like things are going very well, then the market whacks you on the head and you're back where you started, or in this case, worse off than had you stuck to very boring low return bills.
Maybe it is in value territory now.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
11-04-2008, 12:40 PM
|
#2
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,281
|
Unless of course you dumped your S&P index for treasuries in Apr 07 as I did.
Not that I'm some kind of genius market timer or anything - I just fortuitously finally got nervous enough about all the doomsaying re: subprimes at the same time that I was becoming more concious of how close I was getting to my projected ER date (12/09)
__________________
Retired 2009!
|
|
|
11-04-2008, 12:42 PM
|
#3
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texarkandy
Unless of course you dumped your S&P index for treasuries in Apr 97 as I did.
|
It isn't clear to me how your actions would have affected the relative perfomance of these two classes.
But anyway, good work, you da man!!!
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
|
|
|
11-04-2008, 01:21 PM
|
#4
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Tucson
Posts: 118
|
Mr. Ha,
And you, sir, are quite clever. I always enjoy your posts.
Tom
|
|
|
11-04-2008, 01:24 PM
|
#5
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,281
|
Point taken.
In any case I'll probably be sticking to those "very boring low return bills" for a while yet.
__________________
Retired 2009!
|
|
|
S&P Cumulative Total Return Lags Money In Mattress From 1998!
11-04-2008, 02:50 PM
|
#6
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
|
S&P Cumulative Total Return Lags Money In Mattress From 1998!
Even better, yes?
Mattress.jpg
__________________
Al
|
|
|
11-04-2008, 04:20 PM
|
#7
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
It can look like things are going very well, then the market whacks you on the head and you're back where you started, or in this case, worse off than had you stuck to very boring low return bills.
|
The "nice" thing about a lost decade is that we're already 10 years in to lousy equity returns. Mean reversion was working heavy against you in the late 90's, seems like it will start pulling in our direction again before too long.
|
|
|
11-05-2008, 07:29 AM
|
#8
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 380
|
One can pick any decade to make any particular point one wants to make about investing. Ten years isn't enough given the life expectancy of the average person to make conclusions about the desirability of any investing strategy.
|
|
|
11-05-2008, 08:16 AM
|
#9
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveL
One can pick any decade to make any particular point one wants to make about investing. Ten years isn't enough given the life expectancy of the average person to make conclusions about the desirability of any investing strategy.
|
I don't think anyhone was doing that. At least not I, nor Dr. Hussman. And I doubt that AL was either.
Sometiems descriptive information can be useful, or if you won't grant that, interesting. Perhaps you are a very incurious person?
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
|
|
|
11-05-2008, 08:21 AM
|
#10
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
|
Right. It's definitely interesting and important to realize that there are times when just having money under the mattress or in treasuries would have given you a better return for some period. This happened to me for the first time after the crash of 1987, when, IIRC, I lost all of $500 on paper!
__________________
Al
|
|
|
11-05-2008, 08:21 AM
|
#11
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
|
Even given the bloodbaths of 2001-2003 and 2008, I'm up significantly from 1997, with a fairly diversified cadre of index funds representing equities, bonds/cash, and RE...
Knock on wood!
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
|
|
|
11-05-2008, 12:04 PM
|
#12
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 325
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR
Even given the bloodbaths of 2001-2003 and 2008, I'm up significantly from 1997, with a fairly diversified cadre of index funds representing equities, bonds/cash, and RE...
Knock on wood!
|
Probably for a few other reasons, too: dollar cost averaging, dividend reinvestment.
Why it pays to hang tough in a take-no-prisoners market - Oct. 28, 2008
Random excerpt, which reveals that 10year returns as of mid-October were -11% without dividends, +5% with dividends. That does not include dollar cost averaging (buying in both the peaks and valleys), which would have helped you do better than 5%. This just demonstrates that investors will have much higher returns than simply looking at P1 and P2.
|
|
|
11-05-2008, 04:29 PM
|
#13
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 380
|
I agree that it is interesting........just not sure if it is significant.
|
|
|
11-05-2008, 05:27 PM
|
#14
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
|
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
|
|
|
11-06-2008, 01:08 PM
|
#15
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 717
|
Quote:
and the one most people forget to mention - contributions
__________________
Random Reinforcement is Highly Addictive.
|
|
|
11-06-2008, 01:36 PM
|
#16
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveL
I agree that it is interesting........just not sure if it is significant.
|
The significance to me might be, don't put money you may need in 10 years into the stock market. Although I'll admit it is a rare case.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
|
|
|
11-06-2008, 01:38 PM
|
#17
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by riskadverse
and the one most people forget to mention - contributions
|
Which would be similar to DCA and dividend reinvestment.
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
|
|
|
11-07-2008, 04:11 PM
|
#18
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 757
|
I thought I could read a simple graph---maybe I am brain-dead from the stress of these past weeks (market and election), but I'm just not understanding the graph that Ha posted.
How were treasury bills giving a 50% return? Or even 20? :confused:
And doesn't the graph show that buy and hold may not be advantageous in intermediate periods of time, like ten years? If after ten years you are back to where you started (or below), how can that possibly be beating inflation or giving greater returns than fixed interest investing?
__________________
“It is not a sign of good health to be well adjusted to a sick society”.------Krishnamurti
|
|
|
11-07-2008, 04:19 PM
|
#19
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,433
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by tangomonster
How were treasury bills giving a 50% return? Or even 20? :confused:
|
That's 50% total (with interest reinvested) over 10 years, which is about 4% annually, before inflation.
|
|
|
11-07-2008, 04:21 PM
|
#20
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by tangomonster
I thought I could read a simple graph---maybe I am brain-dead from the stress of these past weeks (market and election), but I'm just not understanding the graph that Ha posted.
How were treasury bills giving a 50% return? Or even 20? :confused:
And doesn't the graph show that buy and hold may not be advantageous in intermediate periods of time, like ten years? If after ten years you are back to where you started (or below), how can that possibly be beating inflation or giving greater returns than fixed interest investing?
|
Tango, the returns shown both for the 3 month bills and the S&P are cumulative over the entire 11 year period.
And yes, that is what is shown. Hussman's intent was to demonstrate that returns over a complete cycle are contingent on entry valuations. It also shows what you say- if no entry valuation discipline is practiced, then even over a period longer than a decade, you can be better off in T-bills. This without any risk adjustment!
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|