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Old 08-17-2020, 07:42 PM   #41
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Yes, I remember that miniseries. As shown in one episode, a real samurai would not hesitate to lop off the head of a peasant who does not show respect.

And nowadays, a real samurai does not worry about any stinkin' SWR. He's always on top of the food chain.

True. But they also commit ritual suicide if they fail those who depend on them.
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Old 08-17-2020, 07:50 PM   #42
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I finally looked at this nonsense. Interestingly, Bill Bengen posted in the comments. He was very polite, suggesting that 0.5% would be "wonderful for heirs".
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Old 08-17-2020, 07:53 PM   #43
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I finally looked at this nonsense. Interestingly, Bill Bengen posted in the comments. He was very polite, suggesting that 0.5% would be "wonderful for heirs".
Well that was certainly my thought!
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Old 08-18-2020, 05:27 AM   #44
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Reminds me of Suze Orman's $5-$10M number from a while back...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/su...nse-2019-01-15
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Old 08-18-2020, 06:15 AM   #45
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Reminds me of Suze Orman's $5-$10M number from a while back...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/su...nse-2019-01-15
Wasn't that range about retiring in your 30s? A seriously different situation than retiring in your 50s.
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Old 08-18-2020, 06:17 AM   #46
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He's a moron... may have a future in politics.
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Old 08-18-2020, 06:44 AM   #47
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Wasn't that range about retiring in your 30s? A seriously different situation than retiring in your 50s.
Sure - my point was more about the overall size of the pile that these two so-called financial experts say is required regardless of when you retire.
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Old 08-18-2020, 06:53 AM   #48
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Oye. I really think he should change his name to Financial Idiot.
Financial Spamurai?
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Old 08-18-2020, 08:04 AM   #49
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I finally looked at this nonsense. Interestingly, Bill Bengen posted in the comments. He was very polite, suggesting that 0.5% would be "wonderful for heirs".
As some of the comments on his blog note, the 0.5% rate assumes that the entire principal is untouched at the FIRE'd person death. His answer to that is:

"Believe it or not, a lot of people want to leave money for their children and charitable organizations to help society. It makes people feel happy that their legacy will live on. And it also feels good in general to help other people."

While I'm far from knocking charitable giving and helping others, the whole concept of FIRE is about helping ourselves to live happier lives through managing investments and spending. It's a fairly self-centered goal but that is the main priority of the FIRE crowd. The 0.5% withdrawal rate seems to shift that priority to a somewhat less prominent spot. So the question is: is he still writing his blog for the FIRE crowd or financial legacy junkies?
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Old 08-18-2020, 08:07 AM   #50
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As some of the comments on his blog note, the 0.5% rate assumes that the entire principal is untouched at the FIRE'd person death. His answer to that is:

"Believe it or not, a lot of people want to leave money for their children and charitable organizations to help society. It makes people feel happy that their legacy will live on. And it also feels good in general to help other people."

While I'm far from knocking charitable giving and helping others, the whole concept of FIRE is about helping ourselves to live happier lives through managing investments and spending. It's a fairly self-centered goal but that is the main priority of the FIRE crowd. The 0.5% withdrawal rate seems to shift that priority to a somewhat less prominent spot. So the question is: is he still writing his blog for the FIRE crowd or financial legacy junkies?
I think he's writing for remuneration.
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Old 08-18-2020, 09:27 AM   #51
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Reminds me of Suze Orman's $5-$10M number from a while back...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/su...nse-2019-01-15
I a reminded of the Saturday WSJ which often has articles on clothing, gadgets, etc. The items they feature are astronomically priced - $650 for tennis shoes, $175 toasters, $220 suspenders, $1500 for earrings, and so on.

If I spent like that I would not be able to afford my WSJ subscription. I am probably dragging down their advertising rates.
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Old 08-18-2020, 10:26 AM   #52
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Yes, old(er) age has some advantages. I stopped planning for 30 years (more) retirement at age 70! I now think in terms of 100 minus my age. Haven't refigured what my "new" SWR is. Honestly, I can't spend my RMDs now. Fortunately, there are enough charities in my heart to absorb the excess. YMMV
I used to ponder a lot about SWR and retirement planning. I ran FIRECalc every which way, tweaking this and that.

And now, into the 8th year of retirement, with the help of the bull market and the ability to tap SS whenever I feel like it, plus our desire for "stuff" which was never that strong has diminished to nothing, I no longer worry about SWR, or even what the future market return is.

I still watch my stash, and remain an active investor. I still want to see my stash grow, or not shrink too much. I am doing it as a pastime, and a challenge. This mercurial market is just one of the many unpredictable and temporarily insane things in life. But it is one in which I can act upon unilaterally for mitigation as I see fit, compared to other things in life where other people do not share my thinking.
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Old 08-18-2020, 02:30 PM   #53
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I think he's writing for remuneration.
He is, but this post pretty much killed his goose. For 99.9% of the US, a 0.5% WR would mean the end of the ER concept, as well as FI. I've been saying for a while that interest rates will never return to what they were, and therefore, the 'safety' provided by bonds in the portfolio are being overstated. But running FIRECALC, I just upped the equities portion to overcome the lower future anticipated bond yields...and up to around 95% equities, the overall success rate increased.
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Old 08-18-2020, 02:40 PM   #54
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He is, but this post pretty much killed his goose. For 99.9% of the US, a 0.5% WR would mean the end of the ER concept, as well as FI. I've been saying for a while that interest rates will never return to what they were, and therefore, the 'safety' provided by bonds in the portfolio are being overstated. But running FIRECALC, I just upped the equities portion to overcome the lower future anticipated bond yields...and up to around 95% equities, the overall success rate increased.
And, in 1981 we were told that mortgage rates would NEVER be below 10% again. Never say never
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Old 08-18-2020, 03:03 PM   #55
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I think he's writing for remuneration.
There you go. It is that simple.
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Old 08-18-2020, 03:18 PM   #56
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Whether he is an idiot or a moron he wins if you click on his drivel. Genius.
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Old 08-18-2020, 03:20 PM   #57
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And, in 1981 we were told that mortgage rates would NEVER be below 10% again. Never say never
You're right...we could pay off the national debt and stop deficit spending, then interest rates could return to normal, and savers would be rewarded. I'd be all for that! Then, we can move to a 5 or 7% rule and live happily ever after!
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Old 08-18-2020, 03:25 PM   #58
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You're right...we could pay off the national debt and stop deficit spending, then interest rates could return to normal, and savers would be rewarded. I'd be all for that! Then, we can move to a 5 or 7% rule and live happily ever after!
or the Dave Ramsey 12% growth in stock funds! I'd be withdrawing 7% and saving 5%. I love this New World order
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Old 08-18-2020, 05:55 PM   #59
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You're right...we could pay off the national debt and stop deficit spending, then interest rates could return to normal, and savers would be rewarded. I'd be all for that! Then, we can move to a 5 or 7% rule and live happily ever after!
Maybe you have a better crystal balls than me.

I am guessing you were too young to be a homeowner in 1981, when mortgage rates were 17% and CD's paid 10-12%. At that time, just about every financial prognosticator declared were were in a new era, and we will never go back to low rates again.

I am not saying your guess can't be right, I'm just saying, it IS a guess.
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Old 08-18-2020, 06:06 PM   #60
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Maybe you have a better crystal balls than me.

I am guessing you were too young to be a homeowner in 1981, when mortgage rates were 17% and CD's paid 10-12%. At that time, just about every financial prognosticator declared were were in a new era, and we will never go back to low rates again.

I am not saying your guess can't be right, I'm just saying, it IS a guess.
Yes, you're right (I was still in HS). In 1981, the national debt was only ~35% of the GDP. Today, it's closer to 107%. So, imagine if interest rates bumped back up to 17%, and we could no longer service the national debt. The US would default on the debt, or a portion of it, and the US currency value would plummet (inflation would skyrocket). Just can't see that happening just to allow interest rates to be raised significantly. Also can't see us paying off the debt. We've backed ourselves into a shrinking corner.
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