Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-16-2020, 01:27 PM   #21
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
Yes, I remember that miniseries. As shown in one episode, a real samurai would not hesitate to lop off the head of a peasant who does not show respect.

And nowadays, a real samurai does not worry about any stinkin' SWR. He's always on top of the food chain.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-16-2020, 01:29 PM   #22
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Baltimore
Posts: 77
Ha ha ha ha. That is amusing. Yes. I will take the advice of someone who failed spectacularly.
AreWeThereYet0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2020, 01:44 PM   #23
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
nash031's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Bonita (San Diego)
Posts: 1,795
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
~6.5%WR has been the historical safe withdrawal %, except for the worst 5 or 6 starting periods in history and thus the 4% guidance.
If you retired in 1982, it would be over 10%, but you didn't know it at that time of course.
And therein lies the problem! My wife and I are fortunate enough that we have things in our professional lives we want to accomplish and those will carry us well beyond 4% (we're there) and probably even 3.5%... but if I were planning to stop working the instant we could do so financially, I'd aim for 4% at the worst. I can imagine nothing worse than being forced to go back to finding work when I thought I was dunzo.
__________________
"So we beat to our own drummer in the sun;
We ask for nobody's permission to run.
I just wanna live in a world like that;
Now I'm gonna live in a world like that!" - World Like That, O.A.R.
nash031 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2020, 01:53 PM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,865
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
~6.5%WR has been the historical safe withdrawal %, except for the worst 5 or 6 starting periods in history and thus the 4% guidance.
Uh, not if you think FIREcalc is accurate (which I do).

The 4% rule succeeds in all but the worst 6 starting periods in history.

I believe a 6.5% WR is approximately the average safe withdrawal rate, so if you use a 6.5% WR you're about as likely to succeed as you are to fail.

If you go to FIREcalc and put in a 6.5% withdrawal rate on the first page (using $65,000 as the spending level and $1M as the portfolio level) and leave the rest default, FIREcalc will tell you that you have a 45% success rate:

"Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-4,044,946 to $3,415,537, with an average at the end of $-169,561. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 66 cycles failed, for a success rate of 45.0%."

(emphasis added)
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2020, 02:19 PM   #25
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
njhowie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,931
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
Uh, not if you think FIREcalc is accurate (which I do).
No matter what happens, FIREcalc will be "accurate" because everything it does is about probabilities based on history. Even if it gives 100% success, again, that is based on historical events and returns - which does not guarantee what may happen in the future and that your retirement funds may not last through the remainder of your life.

I personally do not put much "faith" in FIREcalc. It's just a bunch of formulas and calculations based on a set of assumptions. Many investment firms do exactly the same - they have their own models and systems which are similar in nature to FIREcalc. When they crash and burn, they are quick to say "Well, we just experienced a once in a 100 (or 1000) year event and we weren't prepared for that" - and neither is FIREcalc.
njhowie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2020, 02:48 PM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,230
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
Uh, not if you think FIREcalc is accurate (which I do).

The 4% rule succeeds in all but the worst 6 starting periods in history.

I believe a 6.5% WR is approximately the average safe withdrawal rate, so if you use a 6.5% WR you're about as likely to succeed as you are to fail.

If you go to FIREcalc and put in a 6.5% withdrawal rate on the first page (using $65,000 as the spending level and $1M as the portfolio level) and leave the rest default, FIREcalc will tell you that you have a 45% success rate:

"Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-4,044,946 to $3,415,537, with an average at the end of $-169,561. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 66 cycles failed, for a success rate of 45.0%."

(emphasis added)
Ah ha, okay the average safe withdrawal rate.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2020, 04:23 PM   #27
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,865
Quote:
Originally Posted by njhowie View Post
No matter what happens, FIREcalc will be "accurate" because everything it does is about probabilities based on history. Even if it gives 100% success, again, that is based on historical events and returns - which does not guarantee what may happen in the future and that your retirement funds may not last through the remainder of your life.

I personally do not put much "faith" in FIREcalc. It's just a bunch of formulas and calculations based on a set of assumptions. Many investment firms do exactly the same - they have their own models and systems which are similar in nature to FIREcalc. When they crash and burn, they are quick to say "Well, we just experienced a once in a 100 (or 1000) year event and we weren't prepared for that" - and neither is FIREcalc.
I understand your point that FIREcalc is historical and giving answers based on the past and not predictions about the future.

My commentary was alluding to a different point. I was in software and firmware development and testing for about 20 years, and have seen plenty of bugs in code and formulas. It would be possible, indeed probable that a historical SWR calculator would have bugs in their calculations that would produce inaccurate historical answers. In the early days, FIREcalc had some of those, although it has always been pretty good. I think that FIREcalc today is written mostly correctly and gives accurate historical answers.
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2020, 05:27 PM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 9,358
If one has a portfolio that just keeps up with inflation, the 40 year safe withdrawal rate would be 2.5%. not .5% (100 / 40 years = 2.5%). Current interest rates are low, but then so is inflation, and most retirees who go this route are going to use ladders, so they would get a rolling average of returns in their portfolios and not just the super low returns we're seeing today on fixed income investments. At our ages now we could go to over 3.33%, as we don't have as long a retirement to plan for (100 / 30 years = 3.33%) and because of our past investments we should be able to plan on a blended real return better than a 0% real return.
__________________
Even clouds seem bright and breezy, 'Cause the livin' is free and easy, See the rat race in a new way, Like you're wakin' up to a new day (Dr. Tarr and Professor Fether lyrics, Alan Parsons Project, based on an EA Poe story)
daylatedollarshort is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2020, 10:18 PM   #29
Recycles dryer sheets
Boose's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: New Hampshire
Posts: 214
I told my Google News feed a while back to ignore Financial Samurai.
__________________
Done 1/5/21, age 49
Boose is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2020, 05:32 AM   #30
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,007
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boose View Post
I told my Google News feed a while back to ignore Financial Samurai.
Smart move!
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2020, 03:03 PM   #31
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,794
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post

Yep, 0.5% WR would be a real problem for youngsters who want to ER, but I have grown old enough to be past that phase. See my signature line below.
Yes, old(er) age has some advantages. I stopped planning for 30 years (more) retirement at age 70! I now think in terms of 100 minus my age. Haven't refigured what my "new" SWR is. Honestly, I can't spend my RMDs now. Fortunately, there are enough charities in my heart to absorb the excess. YMMV
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2020, 03:06 PM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ExFlyBoy5's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
Posts: 6,649
Quote:
Originally Posted by njhowie View Post
Exactly.

Since he did an about-face a couple years ago (a few years into FIRE), he now relies on shock journalism, panning FIRE, getting the articles picked up by CNBC, Marketwatch, Yahoo, and any other outlet that will pay him...I call it "Whore Journalism".

Always, always remember - here's "an expert" who makes excuses and justifies why he is unable to get by on $265,000 a year in passive income. Does anyone not start laughing uncontrollably? Who really listens to such a person for advice?

In contrast, it's my belief that the SWR is actually higher than 4% - probably more like 6% for those who have FIREd appropriately.
I was thinking of what I could clearly articulate about this clown without running afoul of the forum rules and was having a difficult time...until I read your post. I wholeheartedly agree 110% with all you have said about him.
__________________
FIRE'd in 2014 @ 40 Years Old
Professional Retiree
ExFlyBoy5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2020, 03:52 PM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
njhowie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,931
Quote:
Originally Posted by njhowie View Post
Since he did an about-face a couple years ago (a few years into FIRE), he now relies on shock journalism, panning FIRE, getting the articles picked up by CNBC, Marketwatch, Yahoo, and any other outlet that will pay him...I call it "Whore Journalism".
And just a day later, there you have it...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ion-2020-08-17
njhowie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2020, 04:08 PM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ExFlyBoy5's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
Posts: 6,649
Quote:
Originally Posted by njhowie View Post
And just a day later, there you have it...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ion-2020-08-17
Oye. I really think he should change his name to Financial Idiot.
__________________
FIRE'd in 2014 @ 40 Years Old
Professional Retiree
ExFlyBoy5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2020, 04:13 PM   #35
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: St. Charles
Posts: 3,903
Quote:
Originally Posted by njhowie View Post
And just a day later, there you have it...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ion-2020-08-17
Read the comments

My favorite so far:

Quote:
If I was a self-proclaimed "Financial Samurai" and I was unable to live an AMAZING lifestyle, even in San Francisco, on less than $8 million I would commit hari-kari and be done with it.
__________________
If your not living on the edge, you're taking up too much space.
Never slow down, never grow old!
CardsFan is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2020, 05:19 PM   #36
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,305
that article is so stupid


and this whole fixation on the "perfect SWR" needs to go away already...
FREE866 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2020, 05:38 PM   #37
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 1,004
Quote:
Originally Posted by FREE866 View Post
... and this whole fixation on the "perfect SWR" needs to go away already...
Everyone does have a perfect SWR. Unfortunately, we can't know exactly what it is until we die. So we have to just pick a WR we are comfortable with and stand by to adjust as necessary.
Lewis Clark is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2020, 06:27 PM   #38
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 8,968
Just another con man like all the other bloggers on the web.
RobbieB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2020, 06:42 PM   #39
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
HI Bill's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 2,534
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobbieB View Post
Just another con man like all the other bloggers on the web.
I think that's a bit extreme. I like the White Coat Investor.
__________________
Balance in everything.
HI Bill is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2020, 07:22 PM   #40
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: High Plains Non-Drifter
Posts: 314
Quote:
Originally Posted by CardsFan View Post
Read the comments

My favorite so far:
The comments over there are in fact priceless. It is as if the entire MW audience has grabbed their pitch forks.

Fame and notoriety are opposite sides of the same coin.

Here is my fav exchange from over there so far:

“Maryland Royal
6h ago
I only need a modest corn field and a dozen chickens for some eggs every morning. Do I still need 8 mil?

“Douglas Schofield
6h ago
6 and a half million should work in that case, MR.
WyomingLife is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Financial Samurai Can't Afford FIRE Anymore ExFlyBoy5 FIRE and Money 140 01-02-2020 07:48 PM
The Samurai Appliance Repair Man Nords Other topics 3 07-04-2011 06:30 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:57 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.