Lsbcal
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I don't think a really really bad decline is eminent but I feel so good about my portfolio value right now that it worries me. So I remind myself that bad markets have crept up on us in the past. But just how bad? I wanted to see in dollar terms how bad it could look.
So I added a little table to my investment spreadsheet. It shows how my current portfolio value would look should we encounter one of those nasty bear markets of the past. It helps me to remember why I have my AA set where it is. Some key bad years were 1969, 1973, 1974, 2008.
The 1973-74 bear market started in mid 1973 (inflation, oil embargo, Watergate, Vietnam). It ended towards the end of 1974 so it looks particularly bad on an annual basis. It is kind of a poster child for how bad things could get.
Here is a table showing how some AA's would do if you had a $1,000,000 portfolio and were spending at 4% annually in 1973-74:
This was done using VPW. Bonds are Total Stock Market. Note one could cut spending in those 2 bad years but you'd still have a lot smaller portfolio. And yes, this was the low point basically but things didn't improve all that much until the early 1980's.
So I added a little table to my investment spreadsheet. It shows how my current portfolio value would look should we encounter one of those nasty bear markets of the past. It helps me to remember why I have my AA set where it is. Some key bad years were 1969, 1973, 1974, 2008.
The 1973-74 bear market started in mid 1973 (inflation, oil embargo, Watergate, Vietnam). It ended towards the end of 1974 so it looks particularly bad on an annual basis. It is kind of a poster child for how bad things could get.
Here is a table showing how some AA's would do if you had a $1,000,000 portfolio and were spending at 4% annually in 1973-74:
This was done using VPW. Bonds are Total Stock Market. Note one could cut spending in those 2 bad years but you'd still have a lot smaller portfolio. And yes, this was the low point basically but things didn't improve all that much until the early 1980's.