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Old 11-28-2021, 02:42 PM   #1
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Share Avg Return Percentage & Portfolio

Iím about to switch my investment/taxable account and IRAís from a wealth management company to a DIY plan.

Could you please share your asset allocation, portfolio, and avg return percentage for:
1) Past Month (October 2021)
2) Past 6 Months
3) Year To Date
4) Past 3 Years
5) Past All Years
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Old 11-28-2021, 03:03 PM   #2
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Warren Buffet:
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

"Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell. ... Lethargy bordering on sloth should remain the cornerstone of an investment style."
We really don't keep track of that stuff, except for paying a little attention to AA. We look at the portfolio once a year during the Xmas/New Year week. Some years we even make a trade.

Coming up to about 3 years before retirement we were approximately 100/0. Then we switched to a 60/40 strategy in order to have a bucket to cover cash needs in market downturns. Maybe 5 years ago we decided that we had too much money in the fixed bucket so we went to 70/30.

We take the market returns on our index funds without paying too much attention to the return numbers. They are what they are. Once in a year or three I fiddle around in Quicken's IRR investment reports but they are usually screwed up, not sure why.

I tell my Adult-Ed investment classes this: Investing is boring. If you're not bored you're doing it wrong.

With respect, @bubbabubba, I think you are making this too hard. Did you read Bill Schultheis yet?
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Old 11-28-2021, 03:12 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bubbabubba View Post
Could you please share your asset allocation, portfolio, and avg return percentage
WADR, any responses you get to such a question will be so widely varied that you won't be any better off than you are now.

Asset allocation is something you want to start with, and is individual to you.
You want to set it aggressive enough to be profitable, yet conservative enough to let you sleep well. The 60/40 AA is often used as a model, but you want to tweak that to fit your personal situation.

Once you set your AA, it's relatively simple to pick out some low cost index funds that fit.

Average return percentage doesn't really tell you anything about what will happen going forward.
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Old 11-28-2021, 04:44 PM   #4
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30% stocks
40% ST bonds/ST TIPS
30% cash
Shy of 7% YTD across savings, brokerage, tIRA, Roth, and 401k.

(Disclaimer: we had frequently itemized deductions, but DW just went in Medicare. Some years were > $100k of medical. Her fixed income now exceeds our regular expenses excluding medical. We have no heirs. I’ve only gotten up $800k since the last time I started over at near zero around 2010. Thank God for the ACA (even if I disagree with the extent to which other pay to maintain DW, it’s the law))
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Old 11-28-2021, 05:07 PM   #5
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OldShooter is right, set an asset allocation, then buy a broad low cost ETF or Mutual fund like Vanguard's VTI, plus whatever bonds you need to balance your risk tolerance and some Total International Stock if you like to broaden exposure further.

Then do nothing but check once in a while to see if you need to rebalance.

The fact that you are so concerned about recent returns hints that you haven't figured out yet that in the long run, the way to beat the performance chasing game is not to play.
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Old 11-28-2021, 05:16 PM   #6
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WADR, why would I do that much work for a random stranger online - when you absolutely shouldn’t use my AA? I’d never choose an AA based on what some random stranger online says.

You need to pick an AA that suits your goals and risk tolerance, there are many readily available sources to explore your options. Picking an AA is easy, understanding market behavior/history so you have the fortitude to stick with it when markets inevitably make crazy moves is the hard part.

This forum is a good place learn how to fish, not a place to ask someone to give you a fish…
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Old 11-28-2021, 11:02 PM   #7
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Wow I didnít expect those commentsÖ Iím not looking to copy your AA or portfolioÖ I just want to know what what your avg returns have been.

I had a 401k for over 10 years via an employer sponsored plan. My 401k portfolio over the past 10 year avg was 9.9% and it was an a target fund (2035 I believe) but Iím retiring next month.

If sharing your personal portfolio is such a taboo then please donít share share it and just comment on avg returns youíve had.
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Old 11-28-2021, 11:11 PM   #8
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Individual returns aren't what you're looking for as they're likely to be contaminated with individual forays into some trading, influxes of money (say inheritances) at good or bad times, unplanned needs to withdraw funds, etc., etc.

Instead go pick a TSM fund, a total bond market fund, some balanced funds at various ratios and look up their returns over the time periods you are interested in.
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Old 11-29-2021, 12:07 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bubbabubba View Post
I’m about to switch my investment/taxable account and IRA’s from a wealth management company to a DIY plan.

Could you please share your asset allocation, portfolio, and avg return percentage for:
1) Past Month (October 2021)
2) Past 6 Months
3) Year To Date
4) Past 3 Years
5) Past All Years


As others have said, I don't think you can get much out of other investors' info. If they are indexers, or someone who subscribes to a 2 or 3-fund portfolio, you can find out the info yourself using a tool such as Portfolio Visualizer, and selecting whatever asset allocation you like to see. A high stock AA will do well in a bull market, and stinks in a bear market. No mystery there.

On the other hand, there are active investors like myself, who has around 100 stock positions, and up to 30-40 option positions open at one time, and perhaps 10 MFs, plus I bond and Stable Value funds in 401k. And all these are spread out in more than a dozen accounts (his/her 401ks, IRAs, Roth IRAs, after-tax accounts, Treasury accounts, etc...)

All the above info needs a spreadsheet, and even if you have it, what can you do with it? I made many trades, and that's past info. I also practice Tactical AA, and vary my stock AA according to the market condition.

As for actual returns, I will share a chart I captured off of my brokerage screenshot. They computed the return of my and my wife's rollover IRAs, which I used for most of my trading. These 2 accounts are 74% of our investable assets. The stock AA of these 2 accounts is currently 64.4%.

These 2 accounts beat the S&P so far, but when blended in with the remaining accounts which are not actively traded, the overall return trails the S&P a bit. The overall stock AA of all investable assets is currently 62.6%.

I share this just to show that individual info may not help you much. I could do really well if I chose good stocks, or very poorly with lousy stocks. I could do well this year, but may crash the next.

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Old 11-29-2021, 05:38 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Exchme View Post

The fact that you are so concerned about recent returns hints that you haven't figured out yet that in the long run, the way to beat the performance chasing game is not to play.
+1000

OP - what do you hope to learn with this question?
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Old 11-29-2021, 07:20 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bubbabubba View Post
Wow I didn’t expect those comments… I’m not looking to copy your AA or portfolio… I just want to know what what your avg returns have been.

I had a 401k for over 10 years via an employer sponsored plan. My 401k portfolio over the past 10 year avg was 9.9% and it was an a target fund (2035 I believe) but I’m retiring next month.

If sharing your personal portfolio is such a taboo then please don’t share share it and just comment on avg returns you’ve had.
What I would suggest is that you go to https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/...nalysisResults

On the little gear icon next to Portfolio #1, #2 and #3 there are drop downs for various generic portfolios... or you can enter tickers and percentages yourself... including your target retirement fund. Then click on Analyze Portfolios and review the results.

Sharing personal portfolios isn't taboo, it is just that AA is very personal based on individual circumstnaces and risk appetite so it isn't very useful to you. For example, someone who has COLAed pensions that cover a lot of their annual spending and that have high risk appetite would likely have a high stock AA while someone with similar spending but no pension and negligible risk appetite would likely have a much lower stock AA.
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Old 11-29-2021, 09:51 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Exchme View Post
... The fact that you are so concerned about recent returns hints that you haven't figured out yet that in the long run, the way to beat the performance chasing game is not to play.
+1001 Very well said.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bubbabubba View Post
... If sharing your personal portfolio is such a taboo then please donít share share it and just comment on avg returns youíve had.
@bubbabubba, you are just not "getting it." Let me turn this around into two questions for you: DW and I are long term investors running very serious seven figures. Why would you expect us to care about any of the return numbers you are asking for? What possible use would we have for them?

Look at @NW-Bound's graph. For a couple of years he worked his trading scheme and got basically nothing except increased risk. Then, late last year, he got lucky. If you calculated return numbers for those two periods, what would you do with them?

@NW-Bound clearly enjoys this stuff and everyone should have a hobby but note carefully his own projection from his history: "I could do really well if I chose good stocks, or very poorly with lousy stocks. I could do well this year, but may crash the next."

@bubbabubba, do this: (1) Pick your AA, (2) Buy VTI or VTSMX, seasoned to taste with VTIAX or VXUS, (3) Buy a vanilla bond fund, (5) make a note in your calendar to check the portfolio in a year or two, (4) then, as Bill Schultheis advises, get on with your life.
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Old 11-29-2021, 02:09 PM   #13
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.... @bubbabubba, do this: (1) Pick your AA, (2) Buy VTI or VTSMX, seasoned to taste with VTIAX or VXUS, (3) Buy a vanilla bond fund, (5) make a note in your calendar to check the portfolio in a year or two, (4) then, as Bill Schultheis advises, get on with your life.
Good advice for most people IMO... or better yet if you want really simple you could just buy a single good balanced fund like Wellington, Wellesley or STAR, whichever fits your rsik appetite.
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Old 11-29-2021, 03:11 PM   #14
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Look at @NW-Bound's graph. For a couple of years he worked his trading scheme and got basically nothing except increased risk. Then, late last year, he got lucky. If you calculated return numbers for those two periods, what would you do with them?

Eh, early in that 3-year period, I was up about the same as the S&P, while not being 100% invested.

I thought that counted for something.
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Old 11-29-2021, 04:29 PM   #15
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Eh, early in that 3-year period, I was up about the same as the S&P, while not being 100% invested.

I thought that counted for something.
Not to insult. I read the chart to say that the portfolio you graphed delivered, over those two years, about the same as the S&P total return. Right? If so, sorry to say I donít think it counts for much. Anyone buying an S&P fund could have done as well with better diversification = less risk. Am I not reading it right?
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Old 11-29-2021, 04:33 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by bubbabubba View Post
Wow I didnít expect those commentsÖ Iím not looking to copy your AA or portfolioÖ I just want to know what what your avg returns have been.

I had a 401k for over 10 years via an employer sponsored plan. My 401k portfolio over the past 10 year avg was 9.9% and it was an a target fund (2035 I believe) but Iím retiring next month.

If sharing your personal portfolio is such a taboo then please donít share share it and just comment on avg returns youíve had.
Average returns past 8 years are hovering around 28-29%.

I keep my fee's low with an expense ratio of .06%. My EPS is around $44.5 and my average share price is now at $243.50. I am in 50% LargeCaps (VUG), 25% Mid Cap (VOT) and 25% small cap (VBK) with one caveat that 20% of my portfolio is made up of AAPL.

That is my strategy and I am sticking to it. Feel free to copy me as it would greatly benefit me since I got in on the bottom floor in relative terms to your plan.

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Old 11-29-2021, 05:42 PM   #17
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Not to insult. I read the chart to say that the portfolio you graphed delivered, over those two years, about the same as the S&P total return. Right? If so, sorry to say I don’t think it counts for much. Anyone buying an S&P fund could have done as well with better diversification = less risk. Am I not reading it right?

I beg to differ. Here's how I see it.

Portfolio 1 - 100% stock in S&P

Portfolio 2 - 70% selected stocks, 30% cash


Both portfolios have the same return. You say Portfolio 1 has better diversification and lower risk, but I prefer my Portfolio 2.

Because of the heavy cash, I think Portfolio 2 has better diversification. And while it is true that I only have about 100 stocks instead of 500 of the S&P, my portfolio does not have any of the high P/E stocks in the S&P. I have a subset of the S&P 500, plus quite a bit of mid-cap stocks. No IPO, no crypto, no ARK funds.

I like to think that in case of a real crash like 2000 and 2008, I will do a heck of a lot better than a guy who is 100% in S&P, which is loaded with high P/E stocks. Is that not why most people do not go all in on stocks, but buy balanced MFs? I have my own balanced MF!
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:07 AM   #18
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... Portfolio 2 - 70% selected stocks, 30% cash ...
Sorry, I missed the point that you were not 100% in equities for the one plot.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:51 AM   #19
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Good advice for most people IMO... or better yet if you want really simple you could just buy a single good balanced fund like Wellington, Wellesley or STAR, whichever fits your rsik appetite.
While the young wife and I currently have a smorgasbord of funds in various scattered IRA, 401k, 403b and 457 accounts, my goal for 2022 is to roll them all into IRAs at Vanguard, put everything into Wellington and forget about it (we already have VWENX in our Roth accounts at Vanguard and in any other accounts where it is one of the choices.)
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:15 AM   #20
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While the young wife and I currently have a smorgasbord of funds in various scattered IRA, 401k, 403b and 457 accounts, my goal for 2022 is to roll them all into IRAs at Vanguard, put everything into Wellington and forget about it (we already have VWENX in our Roth accounts at Vanguard and in any other accounts where it is one of the choices.)
Yes, youíll find the result to be very satisfying. We finally finished cleaning our Augean stables a year or two ago; weíre now at Schwab with an irreducible minimum number of accounts, and basically down to a single VG equity fund and a single TIPS issue.
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