Should we eat dessert first

The advice to increase spending now under the assumption that it will magically, and easily, fall away in the future doesn't seem that sound to me.

+1

I don't want to be forced to downgrade [-]my wife's [/-] my lifestyle because I've spent too much up front. My elective spending probably will decline at some point - I just can't predict when.

Likewise, I don't want to worry about getting to an age where I need assistance, extra medical care etc and finding that I can't afford it.
 
if I save my dessert for last, I may only be able to eat jelly and there's no fun in that. Everything in moderation and finding the right balance - hard to do but doable. The bucket systems currently works ok for me.
 
Great article. Health and age definitely have to be factored into your decision making.

I'm reminded of the story of my elderly neighbor who always dreamed of owning a top of the line volvo. But she was also very frugal so she was only going to pay cash for it. So she saved and saved. It took her 6 years from when I met her to when she was able to purchase the car. But soon after that her health began failing so she was only able to drive the car for a few years. Then she passed away.

She should have had her dessert first.
 
Great article. Health and age definitely have to be factored into your decision making.

I'm reminded of the story of my elderly neighbor who always dreamed of owning a top of the line volvo. But she was also very frugal so she was only going to pay cash for it. So she saved and saved. It took her 6 years from when I met her to when she was able to purchase the car. But soon after that her health began failing so she was only able to drive the car for a few years. Then she passed away.

She should have had her dessert first.

I liked the article because it took a broad view of the issue and showed a responsible way of reducing long term spending by a small amount to allow for a relatively large increase for the near future. The article did not advocate throwing caution to the wind or sacrificing your future for the present.

Imho, it is always good to know all the options before coming to a decision.
 
Funny how the board is pretty split on this. The first four posts of the thread like it, call it a gem, etc.

Some posts say it's okay, take in moderation. Others say it's terrible, author is out of his mind, etc.

Quite the range of opinions on it.
 
Great article. Health and age definitely have to be factored into your decision making.

I'm reminded of the story of my elderly neighbor who always dreamed of owning a top of the line volvo. But she was also very frugal so she was only going to pay cash for it. So she saved and saved. It took her 6 years from when I met her to when she was able to purchase the car. But soon after that her health began failing so she was only able to drive the car for a few years. Then she passed away.

She should have had her dessert first.

One of my uncles died suddenly of a massive heart attack in his mid-forties. He lived large and loved to throw money around. Everyone thought he was loaded. It turned out his estate owned nothing but debts. He sure lived right, in retrospect. Had he lived to 100 everything would have looked different. So I'm not sure how much these stories apply to those of us who don't know when, were, or under what circumstances the end will arrive.

If I thought I was suffering under my current budget, and really felt the need to increase my spending to get the most out of life, I never would have quit my job. The answer, for me anyway, isn't to try to finagle spending as high as possible with fancy withdrawal strategies or assumptions that may not be realistic but to make sure I have enough to meet my needs, and my wants, at the get go.
 
Quite the range of opinions on it.
Normal.

Everybody (including DW/me) will look at it vs. their own "life". It's a subject with a lot of opinions, and every one of those opinions are valid based on your personal situation, IMHO...
 
All but a very small part of what is written or said about retirement investing and retirement funding is really non-testable opinion and actually worthless.

Pundits who advocate oversaving are the least dangerous. The worst they can do is cause you to have more money than you turn out to need.

Occasionally something turns up, like "did you know about this or that discount available to people in your situation".

But 99% of everything else in the money sphere is just bs-including "it works for me", "I feel comfortable with that" etc.

As if one's comfort had anything at all to do with how things turn out. Remember how comfortable we all felt with assuming 15%/year minimum equity returns in the late lamented '90s?

Also, those of us who have had auto crashes generally felt quite comfortable until micro-moments before we got clobbered. :)

I would say that it might be especially important to be prudent when the societal rules are being challenged in far reaching ways, and when it looks like the only solvent governments may be very young industrial economies that do things quite differently from the US and Europe.

Then there is the explosion in commodity prices- at least one person with a long history of being right, Jeremy Grantham, thinks that commodities will fluctuate as always, but toward higher and higher levels overall.

Ha
 
So we save and save... Just in case we live to be 90 or 100.

and we only spend 4% (or less and for some of us a lot less) of our nestegg each year just in case the economy stops working.

yet the probability of us living to what age we plan to isn't so high. The probability of us depleting our nestegg is really low.

Clearly, from an outsiders point of view, what we are doing is not so optimal. Maybe we should have taken that trip to Panama or have bought that house by the lake.
 
Funny how the board is pretty split on this. The first four posts of the thread like it, call it a gem, etc.

Some posts say it's okay, take in moderation. Others say it's terrible, author is out of his mind, etc.

Quite the range of opinions on it.


I think this comes from different peoples experiences and how they veiw things....

My mom and dad started to travel after most all the kids were out of the house... good thing because my dad died when he was 63...

My mom traveled a LOT for a few years, going to over 50 countries etc... but as he got older her travels became less and less... now at 91 she only drives within 3 miles of her home... if it is farther it is one of her kids who drives (mostly me and one of my sisters who lives close to us).... her spending has gone WAY down from where it was 20 years ago...


If she had not done all that traveling when she could.... she would have more money today, but would have missed out as she can not travel... she really enjoys looking at the books she put together of her trips... a book made for every big trip...


So just in my immediate family I have seen both sides... and both sides tend to show me that it is better to, as the article says, eat some dessert now while you can or else there might not be any dessert at all...

All of this as others have said in moderation....
 
...the probability of us living to what age we plan to isn't so high. The probability of us depleting our nestegg is really low....

This is what I take away from the article when applied to DH and myself, and I don't think an article reminding people about that is a bad idea, especially since the author is presenting the flip side of a previous article's thesis.

And by eating dessert early in our case we're talking about an oatmeal raisin cookie, not a Godiva cheesecake. (Of course our Taubes followers are never going to eat dessert anyway!:greetings10:)

And never forget, stressed spelled backwards is.....
 
Clearly, from an outsiders point of view, what we are doing is not so optimal.
No doubt about that. But this is not a problem that lends itself to optimization.


You choose which set of rocks you really want to avoid, and steer closer to the others.

The reason that this generates such great careers in pundit/blogosphere is that the topic is important and somewhat anxiety arousing, but there really is no answer. Thus whatever you say or advocate, it is difficult to be proven dead wrong. If you can allay the readers anxiety, and give him or her some seemingly intelligent things to say to their spouses you will always have an audience.

Ha
 
It actually makes a lot of sense. Instead of worrying about if you will have enough money to get a good room next to the oxygen cylinder storage and buffet line on that cruise when you are 90, perhaps enjoying a bit more in your 60s and 70s might be in order.

Besides, with the increasing rate of Alzheimer's in the very elderly, you won't even remember you don't like cat food each time you sit down for din din. :facepalm:
 
Thus whatever you say or advocate, it is difficult to be proven dead wrong.

Except in the case of having far too little money. Too much? Who's going to say that Warren Buffet should have lived his life differently? Someone scraping by at the end of their days, relying on public assistance and charity, when that end was completely avoidable is a whole other story.
 
I'm eating a modest but tasty desert first. The way I see it is that I like desert more than salad and, if I am not going to have room left over, I would rather skip the salad.
 
DH is planning on taking early retirement (at age 55) next year. I know that we will be relatively young for retirees, but I still have been giving A LOT of thought to this. Travel is expensive, but I think it will be better to do it sooner rather than later.
 
Why wait till retirement to travel?

Yes, we have already done some - cruises to the Caribbean, Mexico, and the Mediterranean, but there's a lot more on the list. DH is in one of those predicaments where taking vacation ends up being a double-edged sword because of all the work that piles up while he's gone. As a result, we've only done shorter type trips during the last couple of years and decided we would wait with the loner trips until after retirement - like driving across country.
 
My perspective on this subject strays a bit from the strictly financial. I am considering the take it now approach not regarding a jump in spending but rather a quality of life issue. Would My wife and I be better off by retiring now and improving our health and wellbeing? Our normal activities are virtually free, long walks, tennis, small boating etc. What we lack is the time to do these things on a regular basis. We love to travel but our destinations are strictly the lower 48. The article struck a cord with me and has me thinking.
 
I'm surprised by the lackluster protest from the 4% or lower SWR group. Come on people, don't let Scott get away with this.
 
I think there is a great deal of merit to spending more earlier in retirement for most people. The fact is that most people do not have the energy after 75 or 80 that they had at 65. Also, economic studies show that if we look at life expectancy based on "quality of life" markers, the life expectancy in the U.S. is only around 70. This means that the average American can expect to live his/her life after 70 in some distress. Some of us will be lucky; some of us won't.

Taking a look at the social security acturarial table, one can see that out of 100,000 males, ONLY 47,000 ARE ALIVE AT AGE 80! Looking at those who make it to 65, around 41% (or around 32,000) can expect to be dead by age 80.
 
Well, why wait to retirement to spend a little more? Oh, maybe there won't be a retirement if I do that. This is simply another installment on the how much is enough question. Longevity risk is significant no doubt about that. Still bettr safe than sorry in my view. I suspect that running out of money is worse than leaving some behind?
 
I think it is more than "how much is enough." I think that if there is a high probability that my expenses will be less on an inflation-adjusted basis when and if I reach it to my 80s than I might, not only retire earlier, but spend more in the first decade of retirement. Yes, there is always a balance we must strike, but the consequences of planning for an inflation adjustment of 3% or more in the decade from 80 to 90 means a signficant sacrifice earlier for many. There are risks to everything (e.g., hyperinflation) but to say that running out of money is worse than leaving some behind misses the point in my view. The question should be " can I survive my 80s with not taking as much inflation adjusted money from my portfolio as the so-called financial experts say I should?" I don't think anyone wants to run out of money before they run out of life.
 
The question should be " can I survive my 80s with not taking as much inflation adjusted money from my portfolio as the so-called financial experts say I should?" I don't think anyone wants to run out of money before they run out of life.
Ty Bernicke thinks discretionary spending drops with age because he noted that the personal wealth of that demographic was still rising. Even though medical expenses may rise, personal wealth was rising faster.

OTOH his data doesn't account for the last real estate bubble, or whether the rich retirees' wealth was rising much faster than the poor retirees' wealth was dropping. His research isn't based on a lot of data and it hasn't been subject to decades of peer review.

It's just intuitively very attractive, especially when coupled with the "dessert" metaphor.

I'd sure hate to be wrong because some journalist came up with an intuitively attractive metaphor based on sketchy presumptions, scant research, and inadequate data...
 
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