Should you believe the government’s inflation figures?

[arebelspy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2soon2tell You might want to go to shadowstats.com and look at the alternative CPI compiled by John Williams. It is now over 10%. 2soon2tell

Man, the guy makes amazing music AND interesting economic articles?!

[FreeAtLast]

Not sure. There are so many way to manipulate a price before it is rung up or actually paid for such as in store instant coupons, buy one get one, rewards cards, x% cash back rebates on credit cards. Annual rebates on total purchases in stores like Costco. Just to name a few.

[Surewhitey]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chinaco Core CPI vs CPI-X. I don't buy into the big brother tricking us theory. Economics is not precise... No measure on something that complex is going to be perfect. Plus, depending on your personal consumption, area of the country and several other factors... it could overstate or understate your situation. The trickery comes from certain corporations that sell products like food and try to trick consumers by being the first mover on resizing the amount in a package (shrinking the amount). It is a deceptive practice. No way will they convince me that they shaved 1 oz out of the product to make it affordable when the cost difference is $1 or less. They hope to exploit the short-term confusion where people are not looking closely... this enables them to profit for a while until their competitors catch on and inevitably resize to be competitive.

Wouldn't this make us less obese? I, too, cannot stand to see smaller packaging / wt. than the last time I bought something. I look to buy the competitors product when this happens just to get some personal satisfaction of working against "the man". Kind of like sending in pre-paid postage back to the credit card offers I get every other day.

If I move to Mexico, will the CC companies find me there?

[Surewhitey]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack I've never bought into it either, and I even see it here among people who should know better. As part of my job, I review CPI monthly in detail. Despite posting the actual documents at work several times, the most unforgiveable claim, and I hear it among people I work with all the time is (from the OP link):Anyone can see the detail anytime right here http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf. The detail including food, home energy (utilities) and transportation energy (gas) is clearly shown in the detail beginning on page 9. And quoting the linked document (clearly shown in the detail calculation):

I'm not an inflation naysayer, but I can tell you with certainty, my coffee from Costco went from $10 to 10.99 (some went to $13+ from $10) and my wife's yogurt went from $1.5 to almost $2. Just a couple very accurate, truthful examples of basic needs of ours. We do not see so much in the steaks / chicken / pork...but they aren't going down.

[steelyman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords After my initial "Woo-hoo!" at my first COLA, I realized that I really didn't want to live in an economy that requires COLAs.

Unfortunately, I think maybe that is not an option?

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 Better get those fillings out toot sweet: that is how the gubmint is doing its mind control on you. Seriously, what everyone seems to forget is that these figures are compiled and sorted out by economists who generally really care about data and rely on it as a matter of course.

An uncharacteristically lame reply for you. So what is the better metric since CPI is "gubmit...mind control?"

[FinanceDude]

What's the old adage?

There's lies, damn lies, and statistics..........

The govt can publish whatever inflation rate they want, all I care about is MY inflation rate.........

[FinanceDude]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Surewhitey I'm not an inflation naysayer, but I can tell you with certainty, my coffee from Costco went from $10 to 10.99 (some went to $13+ from $10) and my wife's yogurt went from $1.5 to almost $2. Just a couple very accurate, truthful examples of basic needs of ours. We do not see so much in the steaks / chicken / pork...but they aren't going down.

Walmart has had cups of Yoplait yogurt for 50 cents a cup for YEARS. I was in there the other day and they were 66 cents! That's a large increase!!!

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack An uncharacteristically lame reply for you. So what is the better metric since CPI is "gubmit...mind control?"

There isn't a better metric that I know of. I think the conspiracy theorists are nuts to chase this one. That said, the competition from the likes of MIT is great because it never hurts to try to find a better way to do things. Measuring general inflation is really challenging, so having bright minds without ulterior motives attack the problem is a plus.

[Gone4Good]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2soon2tell You might want to go to shadowstats.com and look at the alternative CPI compiled by John Williams. It is now over 10%. 2soon2tell

ShadowStats has now risen to the category of "Zombie Lie" . . . that is a lie that keeps rising from the dead after you think it's been killed off. Heck, we killed it on these forums just four days ago. And here it is shambling around again trying to eat unsuspecting brains.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GaryInCO Enter ShadowStats. According to the **government's own way of calculating CPI** as of 1980 -- before Greenspan started fudging the calculations to make them look better -- we're currently seeing an inflation rate of over 10%, instead of the ~2.5% claimed by the current CPI-U.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gone4Good Do me a favor. Go grab some actual prices from 1987 (here I'll help you out - Morris County, NJ historic prices published in their paper) inflate those prices to today using both the CPI index and ShadowStats. See which index gives you prices closer to what's available on store shelves. Report what you find. I eagerly await your results.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GaryInCO Looking at the prices from 1980 and from 2010, it does indeed look like the shadowstats numbers are off.

[Gone4Good]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack An uncharacteristically lame reply for you. So what is the better metric since CPI is "gubmit...mind control?"

If you re-read his response with his intended sarcasm it might make more sense to you.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gone4Good If you re-read his response with his intended sarcasm it might make more sense to you.

Yep, I missed it, hence my "uncharacteristically lame reply" remark - didn't sound like Brewer...sorry Brewer.

CPI is not perfect, and BLV goes to great lengths to explain how they calculate them and acknowledge their shortcomings all the time. So it gripes me when people bemoan them because they paid 20% more for milk one week or claim food & energy aren't included (maybe look before claiming same...).

[donheff]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gone4Good If you re-read his response with his intended sarcasm it might make more sense to you.

I was about to say the same thing and add - "an uncharacteristically shallow read by Midpack"

[REWahoo]

I was tempted to ask "Did you notice a 'whooshing' sound above you when you read it?"

[Midpack]

OK guys, I missed it...

[brewer12345]

Man, its like a pack of wild dogs in here!

[Dawg52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 Man, its like a pack of wild dogs in here!

I'll take that as a compliment.