Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
our family waterfront area in palm beach county, florida
jan 40 houses for sale: avg $5,780,799 medium $4,800,000
feb 34 houses for sale: avg $6,118,352 medium $6,950,000
mar 34 houses for sale: avg $5,722,617 medium $4,240,000
may 32 houses for sale: avg $5,583,375 medium $4,495,000
july 31 houses for sale: avg $5,600,000 medium $4,170,000
my area of broward county, florida
jan 33 houses for sale: avg $727,151 medium $680,000
feb 39 houses for sale: avg $712,902 medium $627,000
may 59 houses for sale: avg $743,330 medium $650,000
july 51 houses for sale: avg $714,509 medium $645,000
just a few blocks from me you can pick up this dump for only $1,500,000 yikes (not sure, think it might be zoned residential/office type commercial,) even still.....
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
"just a few blocks from me you can pick up this dump for only $1,500,000 yikes (not sure, think it might be zoned residential/office type commercial,) even still...."
nice address. point intracoastal lot in harbor beach. the views are amazing. it is also just across state road a1a from the beach. taxes about $350,000/year. i'm surprised the house is going so cheap.
i dated a guy in there for a while. he was only worth a few hundred million and had a house (then) worth about $4 mil, on the same canal i think.
Shortage of Waterfront - Our most valuable homesites are waterfront. We are fortunate in our area to have a beautiful Atlantic Ocean coastline, as well as three beautiful wide water rivers, The Indian River, The St. Lucie River and the Ockeechobee Waterway. But there are a limited number of homes and condos available, and far more demand from buyers. Prices for waterfront homes and condos are running ahead of the general market.
and
Quote:
Baby Boomers Control - There is no other way to say it. This year Baby Boomers turn 60, and they are starting to retire and plan for retirement. They are not retiring to Canada or Chicago or even New York. They retiring to Las Vegas, Phonenix and Florida, with more than 60% of them estimated to be headed to Florida. That's millions and millions of new buyers that want to spend the rest of their lives relaxing in their waterfront home in Florida.
the realtor of a thousand faces.
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
We hung out with our Doctor friends this weekend, they are actually in the market to buy a house right now (They live in a townhouse that they bought right out of residency 3 years ago). They are looking at homes in the 1.3 to 1.5 million range, saw a home they really liked but thought 2 million was "a stretch".
I'm tempted to tell them to wait, since the loss of equity in their townhome over the next year will be a drop in the bucket compared to the likely drop in price on the home they will buy. But I think they are pretty revved up at this point, and the extras new home builders are throwing in at this point are really piling up.
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,717
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
I agree, RE Agents can be a little two faced as it suits them. But they are sales people after all, so to sellers and buyers they do have to put on a rosy face.
As a contrarian, I also happen to agree with the article, whoever it was written by. There are 2 or 3 things going on here.
1) The general RE cyle of events, similar to historical data, I remember 1989-1995 in SoCAL.
2) The majority of Americans historically are over spenders and poor savers, the more money they have the more they spend. The US Economy relies on it. The more equity they accumulate in their homes, the more they re-finance to tap into it, and yes spend more. (Interest rates low, tax cuts, more cash more spending better economy) They live for the moment. As a Brit, I never dreamed of not saving for consumer goods before I bought them. TVs, Cars etc. (Homes are the exception) I still do to this day unless there is 0% financing (and it is a good deal) or I can write the item off. I take free money any time.
3) I am a great believer that if you talk about something for long enough it WILL happen. Or you will "WILL" it to happen. Just look at the length of this thread! AND Every day on TV, or in the street, you hear talks of the proposed bubble, no such thing as a bubble, buyer's market, massive inventory, the RE world is ending as we know it.... Whatever.
Personally I hope it does crash and hard, but I am a renter, what do I know or care?. I sold my SoCAL home at about 90% off the 2005 October peak. I will be a buyer at the rates 20% - 30% perhaps 50% who knows, lower than today. If not I will continue to rent. Maybe I will become one of those "Flippers" maybe not.
Folks like those on this board, I really do not think will be affected at all, at least not in real terms. They will simply re-adjust their time horizons and move on. Or they will trade up or down when it suits them.
JPatrick has the right idea, taking his vette, selling his home in TX and moving to what I can see a VERY economical Ozarks, beautiful to boot. House Taxes are so reasonable there 19% of the Assessed value divided by 100 x 3.9973. Compare that to Florida. I will use generic numbers for the same quality of home as I see it, after some personal non qualified research on Realtor.com.
Nice average home in NE florida with a view of something other than your neighbors.
$500,000 Taxes = on average 18% per thousand = $9000 per year.
Similar home in the Ozarks (MO)
$250,000 Taxes = 250,000 x 19% /100 x 3.9973 = $1898.71
$500,000 (McMansion) Home = $3797.43
Speaks for itself. Regardless of a state income tax.
SWR
__________________ "Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
Heh, a blog called "globaleconomicanalysis"? And he writes "We hire nurses from all over the world and we even have an association called Visiting Nurse Association"? (FYI, VNA has been around since 1888 and is about visit[ing] the sick in their homes).*
People stretch themselves too far, don't understand what they are getting into, and when they get burned they beat up their agents and vandalize other peoples homes? *Nobody is ever at fault for their own mess. *Barf. *It's only going to get uglier.
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
People stretch themselves too far, don't understand what they are getting into, and when they get burned they beat up their agents and vandalize other peoples homes? *Nobody is ever at fault for their own mess. *Barf. *It's only going to get uglier.
Actually, I think such (mis)behavior will be short lived. In another 6 months or less, I think people will be resigned to a weak market. That's when banks will be getting a lot of sets of keys in the mail...
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
This reminds of the real-estate market in Hong Kong and Shang Hai, China not too distant ago. A lots of people became rich and those who came into the game lost their shirt. When will we ever learn?
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
This reminds of the real-estate market in Hong Kong and Shang Hai, China not too distant ago. A lots of people became rich and those who came into the game lost their shirt. When will we ever learn?
Never and I hope it stays that way. Way to hard to make money if you dont have any suckers.
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 13,183
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Actually, I think such (mis)behavior will be short lived.* In another 6 months or less, I think people will be resigned to a weak market.* That's when banks will be getting a lot of sets of keys in the mail...
I know you mean this figuratively, but so no one gets confused.........* Folks, underwater in their homes, who drop by the bank and toss the keys to the mortgage loan officer still wind up being foreclosed on, taking the credit ding and all that bad stuff........* Turning over the keys to the bank doesn't get you out of the obligation to pay off the mortgage loan, even if the current selling price is less than you owe. Sad stuff.......
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by youbet
I know you mean this figuratively, but so no one gets confused.........* Folks, underwater in their homes, who drop by the bank and toss the keys to the mortgage loan officer still wind up being foreclosed on, taking the credit ding and all that bad stuff........* Turning over the keys to the bank doesn't get you out of the obligation to pay off the mortgage loan, even if the current selling price is less than you owe.* Sad stuff.......
Yup. And the recent changes to the BK law make it more likely that the lender will go after the defaulted borrower for the difference between the proceeds from the sale of the house and the amount owed.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
HUD is trying to make it harder for banks to foreclose on FHA loans. I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar for FNMA loans as well. At least I hope the government will try to reduce taxpayer liability when Fanny Mae starts bleeding.
New home sales in Honolulu were down 26 percent from year-before levels in the first half of 2006, despite strong luxury condo sales.
"High-rise condominiums have enjoyed strong demand -- the largest two project sales performances year-to-date 2006 are at Keola Lai (210 contracts) and Watermark in Waikiki (128 contracts)," Cassiday said.
Sales of new single-family homes are slowing, Cassiday said, because there is no inventory at the lower end of the price spectrum and many prospective home buyers are priced out of the market at the other end.
The above is from the Pacific Business News.* 7/31/2006
Strong luxury condo sales and the only reason SFR sales are down is because of no inventory.*
That's why I skeptable of them figgers and graphs.*
Quote:
? What
Linear Mode
