Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-10-2021, 03:16 PM   #101
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,794
One of the reasons I keep a relatively low equity position is so that I worry less about the ups and downs of the markets. Yes, that has cost me growth - but it was growth I don't need to make my plan work. What I worry about is big changes as we are seeing now, what with the uncertainty caused by COVID19 - and other stuff. As always, YMMV.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

So much bullish sentiment
Old 01-10-2021, 05:03 PM   #102
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,927
So much bullish sentiment

Quote:
Originally Posted by G8tr View Post
Indeed it has. But that's in regard to the domestic economy. What we don't know is whether the incoming administration will bleed off some of the recently created wealth based on that anticipation.


Or create more wealth. Let’s not slip in politics, please. Too toxic.
Markola is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2021, 05:12 PM   #103
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,544
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
As I pointed out in a couple of other threads, the price of industrial metals, i.e. copper, tin, zinc, iron ore, has been rising. Same with rock phosphate and urea for fertilizer. These are still far from their all-time high, but are higher than 1 year ago, even pre-Covid.

The world economy is still recovering, so I don't think the rise of commodity prices is due to higher demand, but rather due to lack of supply. Will supply improve soon?

Just yesterday, I read of Toyota not being able to produce pickup trucks due to lack of some semiconductor chips.

When will higher commodity prices get reflected in the PPI? How high will the Fed let it go until it raises interest rates?

I don't know the answer to any of that, so can only keep an eye on new developments. No need to sell anything at this point.
Higher commodity prices are a good sign for stocks. "Inflation" does not denote higher prices here and there, it denotes widespread price growth overall. In particular wages.

I agree this does bear watching and it is the thing I am most concerned about.
Montecfo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2021, 07:02 PM   #104
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 682
The chart below tells me inflation is not a current reality.

Capacity "lost" due to the events of early 2020 is easily replaced, because the only thing missing is labor. Hire the labor and the capacity returns. The fixed assets (property, plant and equipment) were in place on December 31, 2019, producing at all time high levels of output in many (most?) industries. I'm not concerned about supply in the medium term.

An argument can be made that there is more capacity available than ever before, for work that can be done from home. This removes from concern the intellectual part of the economy. It has never been easier to do certain tasks such as hold meetings, make decisions, analyze data and trade stocks.

Short term supply increase for goods producing companies needs workers to be re-employed, and if any price blips or supply outages occur, they will be short lived in my view. I see it as friction related to getting the economy fully back into gear.

Supply in the long term is a normal part of economic and capacity planning for any company as things ebb and flow.

chassis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 05:34 AM   #105
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
JoeWras's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 11,701
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
OFF TOPIC: Amazon has TT Delux for $40 now. Being a gun slinging trader I bought it.

https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/...D3J0WMC8&psc=1
Right. The Dec 26 deal threw in a $10 gift card kick back. $40 still ain't bad.
__________________
Retired Class of 2018


JoeWras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 08:32 AM   #106
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,007
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeWras View Post
Except on Amazon only on Dec 26.
Wasn’t that $30 for Deluxe, not Premier?

Premier is usually quite a bit more expensive.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 08:37 AM   #107
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,808
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Wasn’t that $30 for Deluxe, not Premier?

Premier is usually quite a bit more expensive.
See my link above to the Amazon $40 offer of Delux Fed + State with separate e-file fee for State. Last year it was $15 to e-file the State forms.
Premier is $54.90.
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 08:43 AM   #108
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ExFlyBoy5's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
Posts: 6,649
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Pelosi getting pregnant at her age of 80? That would be a true miracle.
Ah, more flashbacks to pointless teachings of law school: "The Fertile Octogenarian"
__________________
FIRE'd in 2014 @ 40 Years Old
Professional Retiree
ExFlyBoy5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 08:43 AM   #109
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,007
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
See my link above to the Amazon $40 offer of Delux Fed + State with separate e-file fee for State. Last year it was $15 to e-file the State forms.
Premier is $54.90.
Joe Wras was making fun of ERs scrambling for “free” TurboTax which he valued at $30 on Dec 26. I simply pointed out that the “free” TurboTax being offered is actually TurboTax Premier (not Deluxe) which is more expensive – usually at least ~$55.

I see that TT Deluxe is still $30 for the no state versions both at Amazon and Costco, $40 with state.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 08:48 AM   #110
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
JoeWras's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 11,701
Oh, I thought the Fidelity free deal was Deluxe. I stand corrected and will step aside and not agitate anymore. Sincerely. My apologies.
__________________
Retired Class of 2018


JoeWras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 08:58 AM   #111
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,808
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeWras View Post
Oh, I thought the Fidelity free deal was Deluxe. I stand corrected and will step aside and not agitate anymore. Sincerely. My apologies.
I fear your reputation as a TurboTax pricing expert has been severely and permanently damaged. But we will accept your apology.
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 02:01 PM   #112
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,794
Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
The chart below tells me inflation is not a current reality.


I know we've had this discussion before, but I tend not to trust the numbers. I've seen way too many items I usually purchase going up in price over the past 5 years. It may be true that many are offset by lower prices of things I don't buy. Still, for me, inflation is real. It's manageable, but real.

I guess my fear is that at some point, all the liquidity dumped into the system (now absorbed by paper markets) will suddenly start chasing rarer and even more rare goods. I obviously have no special expertise nor insight into inflation. But low inflation at this point of QE and stimulus, etc., etc., seems to fly in the face of the rule of supply and demand. I guess we'll see since YMMV.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 03:26 PM   #113
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,007
It’s pretty interesting that we had record low employment numbers, yet wage inflation – which often results in standard inflation, did not increase. We have much lower demand now, both domestic and globally. It’s going to take a while again, for demand to build and unemployment to drop. I just just don’t see inflationary pressures for at least 2 years.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 05:52 PM   #114
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,544
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
It’s pretty interesting that we had record low employment numbers, yet wage inflation – which often results in standard inflation, did not increase. We have much lower demand now, both domestic and globally. It’s going to take a while again, for demand to build and unemployment to drop. I just just don’t see inflationary pressures for at least 2 years.
You make an excellent point. Globalism has kept price inflation at bay, I expect this will continue.

Re-shoring of supply chains figures to cause some upward pressure on pricing and that is a new input. It'll be interesting to see if that becomes a measurable impact.
Montecfo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 07:21 PM   #115
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
I hope the Western world, meaning the US and Europe, will recover soon from Covid in order to resume normal economic production. China has long been back to normal, and they are cranking.

Saw somewhere earlier that China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2028, five years earlier than previously forecast, as estimated by the UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). All this is the effect of Covid.

If somebody else is doing the heavy lifting in manufacturing, while we are busy distributing Covid-aid money to help idle workers, how it it going to help keep prices down?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2021, 07:45 PM   #116
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
USGrant1962's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,479
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
It’s pretty interesting that we had record low employment numbers, yet wage inflation – which often results in standard inflation, did not increase. We have much lower demand now, both domestic and globally. It’s going to take a while again, for demand to build and unemployment to drop. I just just don’t see inflationary pressures for at least 2 years.
Real wages have been trending up since 2013-2014, and took off starting in 2017. That is >12% "real" - above inflation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged

"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
USGrant1962 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2021, 04:41 AM   #117
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,007
What I meant to type was “did not increase standard inflation”. So somehow there are other pressures keeping CPI down, or wage increases have simply not yet had much of an impact. And given the higher unemployment now, probably won’t for a while.

The last part of that graph is a bit weird - indicates the full time lower wage people lost their jobs and mostly higher wage (work at home) folks kept theirs?
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2021, 07:02 AM   #118
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
USGrant1962's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,479
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
What I meant to type was “did not increase standard inflation”. So somehow there are other pressures keeping CPI down, or wage increases have simply not yet had much of an impact. And given the higher unemployment now, probably won’t for a while.

The last part of that graph is a bit weird - indicates the full time lower wage people lost their jobs and mostly higher wage (work at home) folks kept theirs?
I think that is right - retail and restaurant layoffs. Though for a good chunk of last year many were collecting more in unemployment compensation than working wages. I don't believe that chart includes unemployment - only full time wages/salaries.

Economic data on FRED is going to have a ton of distortions for 2020/2021.
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged

"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
USGrant1962 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2021, 07:51 AM   #119
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,585
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
The last part of that graph is a bit weird - indicates the full time lower wage people lost their jobs and mostly higher wage (work at home) folks kept theirs?
This is called the composition effect and is responsible for the appearance of an increase in real wages. From the San Francisco Fed a few months ago https://www.frbsf.org/economic-resea...f-wage-growth/


Quote:
Despite a sharp spike in unemployment since March 2020, aggregate wage growth has accelerated. This acceleration has been almost entirely attributable to job losses among low-wage workers. Wage growth for those who remain employed has been flat. This pattern is not unique to COVID-19 but is more profound now than in previous recessions. This means that, in the wake of the virus, evaluations of the labor market must rely on a dashboard of indicators, rather than any single measure, to paint a complete picture of the losses and the recovery.
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2021, 09:00 AM   #120
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,171
Quote:
Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post
Real wages have been trending up since 2013-2014, and took off starting in 2017. That is >12% "real" - above inflation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Alas, CV did a real job on wages, especially at the lower levels.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy

The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
funny investor sentiment graph ladelfina FIRE and Money 23 08-09-2009 09:01 AM
CNBC Commentators increasingly negative. Is that bullish? lightwaves FIRE and Money 46 03-05-2009 11:05 AM
ERF Market Sentiment Poll: 2007 Q4 twaddle FIRE and Money 1 11-07-2007 08:25 PM
Bullish or Bearish? dmpi FIRE and Money 16 07-31-2006 06:31 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:47 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.