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Old 02-10-2020, 05:47 PM   #61
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Just wondering, you run Firecalc, and you get 100% say over 40 years.
What minimum balance are you comfortable with ? $300K left, $500K left ? $1 Million left ?

$0 left as long as it's about 100% successful.

However, over half of my spending is for discretionary spending, so I can cut back if needed.
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Old 02-10-2020, 07:17 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888 View Post
Just wondering, you run Firecalc, and you get 100% say over 40 years.
What minimum balance are you comfortable with ? $300K left, $500K left ? $1 Million left ?
If you get 100% with FIRECalc then there will only be a few scenarios anywhere close to zero.... most will be at a lot more than zero.... so zero would be fine with me... I fact, I wouldn't necessarily need 100%... IMO 98% or 95% is probably fine.
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Old 02-10-2020, 07:35 PM   #63
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I don't see a lot of orange in your future:

https://engaging-data.com/will-money...5x=1&flexpct=0

that site is so awful
so much clickbait
i'll stick with firecalc
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Old 02-10-2020, 09:28 PM   #64
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that site is so awful
so much clickbait
i'll stick with firecalc
I'm not following you? I don't see any "clickbait". Just another retirement calculator (JATC), with a really interesting spin.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:15 PM   #65
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I work up all my numbers with a remaining portfolio of one dollar. I'm single with no kids so leaving a legacy is not a concern but on the other hand a remaining portfolio of one dollar has me spending two and a half times my yearly expenses which is more than I would want to spend on "crap"
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:55 PM   #66
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Thanks guys ... I guess we all want to have some buffer .. like what if some of us live like Kirk Douglas to 103 years old instead of 80, 90 or 95.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:12 AM   #67
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I don’t see us ever spending each year all of the amount FIRECALC says at even 95% success rate. But for belt & suspender purposes I usually put in $200k. And if I see our balances taking one of the stratospheric paths, I can always invest in Porsches....
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Old Yesterday, 09:49 AM   #68
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$0 left as long as it's about 100% successful.

However, over half of my spending is for discretionary spending, so I can cut back if needed.
I suppose this makes me feel better about having $200,000 left after 40 years I probably will be in another dimension by then.
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Old Yesterday, 11:03 AM   #69
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I don't see a lot of orange in your future:

https://engaging-data.com/will-money...5x=1&flexpct=0
It says I'll be dead before I'm broke so I got that going for me.
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Old Yesterday, 11:13 AM   #70
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FireCalc gives me 100% success on our spending rate with a cushion of an extra $40K per year, not including Social Security. When I include Social Security, my lowest balance is right now. Maybe I should read the Blow That Dough! thread.
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Old Yesterday, 11:41 AM   #71
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FireCalc gives me 100% success on our spending rate with a cushion of an extra $40K per year, not including Social Security. When I include Social Security, my lowest balance is right now. Maybe I should read the Blow That Dough! thread.
I hope you are retired!
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Old Yesterday, 02:49 PM   #72
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FireCalc gives me 100% success on our spending rate with a cushion of an extra $40K per year, not including Social Security. When I include Social Security, my lowest balance is right now. Maybe I should read the Blow That Dough! thread.
Actually your lowest balance is probably even higher, as Firecalc will never show the lowest balance to be higher than your current balance.
Just a quirk.
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Old Yesterday, 10:40 PM   #73
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I usually tell FIRECalc to never let my balance drop below $400K.
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Old Today, 05:23 AM   #74
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Just wondering, you run Firecalc, and you get 100% say over 40 years.
What minimum balance are you comfortable with ? $300K left, $500K left ? $1 Million left ?
I would consider the 100% number to be a starting point. You're not getting THE answer from Firecalc, just a reasonable guess. If your life is in a bad state and you need to make a change, you can. If you can trudge and do the one-more-year march of the ER penguins, you may choose to do so.

To invoke another movie reference: "Choose Wisely".
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Old Today, 07:37 AM   #75
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While it is easy to say because we are at 100%, I would be a-ok with 95%. If you look at the graph of lines at 95%, there are less than a handful of failures and the failures are all in the last few years of the projection period... one after 23, 24, 25 and 29 years, respectively..... and once you factor in the liklihood of living to the point of failure the likelihood of failure is infintesimal.

So if you retire at 60 with 95% success/5% failure with the first failure is at 23 years and the probability of a 60 year old living to 83 is 50%, then the real failure rate is more like 2.5% rather than 5%. Presumably if one was headed towards failure there are actions that they could take to avoid it... the smallest failure is negligible, then three that are $150-300k.
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Old Today, 09:31 AM   #76
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While it is easy to say because we are at 100%, I would be a-ok with 95%. If you look at the graph of lines at 95%, there are less than a handful of failures and the failures are all in the last few years of the projection period... one after 23, 24, 25 and 29 years, respectively..... and once you factor in the liklihood of living to the point of failure the likelihood of failure is infintesimal.

So if you retire at 60 with 95% success/5% failure with the first failure is at 23 years and the probability of a 60 year old living to 83 is 50%, then the real failure rate is more like 2.5% rather than 5%. Presumably if one was headed towards failure there are actions that they could take to avoid it... the smallest failure is negligible, then three that are $150-300k.
I agree in general.
What do you think of the following concept intertwined within your statement? (95% vs. 100%)
Since a 95% success rate translates to roughly 6 failures, wouldn't one want to feel like they can survive those worst 6 cases which would logically include the Great Depression, 1966, 1965, 1937, 1906 (from memory)?
Or would your above mentioned statement effectively strongly diminish this thought process?
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Old Today, 09:36 AM   #77
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The caveat to the above is that if you’re married you have to assume two people dying, not one.

We were ok with 94%, mainly because we had a fair amount of flex in the budget. I don’t think one of the failed cycles was the depression—pretty sure they were almost all stagflation related, but now I want to go back and check!
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Old Today, 09:53 AM   #78
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The caveat to the above is that if you’re married you have to assume two people dying, not one.
Totally agree! That is why we look to 100% with a minimum of at least $300,000 cushion. Hopefully, if that is worst case, (no guarantee there, we understand), then most likely we will leave a significant reserve to our kids. Better to minimize any worry than to exhaust the stash.
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Old Today, 10:04 AM   #79
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The caveat to the above is that if you’re married you have to assume two people dying, not one.
+1

I have no expectation of living into my 90s and, after watching my own parents' slow disintegration, no interest in doing so.

But even absent some medical improvements that may happen in the coming decades to avoid dementia, current life expectancy for a couple suggests one of us - either I or DW - might very well last till 93. So I figure there needs to be at least 500k at all times.

As others point out, if that's the minimum in a worst-case scenario, the most probable outcome will be more than that.
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Old Today, 10:19 AM   #80
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I agree in general.
What do you think of the following concept intertwined within your statement? (95% vs. 100%)
Since a 95% success rate translates to roughly 6 failures, wouldn't one want to feel like they can survive those worst 6 cases which would logically include the Great Depression, 1966, 1965, 1937, 1906 (from memory)?
Or would your above mentioned statement effectively strongly diminish this thought process?
Like I said, we're well over 100%.

However, if I were face with a choice of early retirement at 95% or working say, 3 more years to get to 100%, I "think" that I would be willing to accept a small risk of being around for financial ruin in exchange for 3 more years of retirement at an earlier age.... in part, because the 95% assumes that spending increases at inflation and either it doesn't really in which case I would be fine if I end up spending less in old age as seems to be frequently reported or there would the factors that I could play as financial ruin is appearing to prevent it.

Or put another way, I would chose 3 years of freedom at an earlier age with a very slight risk of ending up on Medicaid in a nursing home.

I agree with other posters that for a couple it would be more prudent to consider joint mortality.
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