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Sobering Probabilities
Old 01-01-2017, 08:25 PM   #1
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Sobering Probabilities

From mortality tables for a 60 year old guy:

age (Male) 60
Death Probability @60 1.14%
Life Expectancy = 20.92
Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%
Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%
Prob of 30 years past 60= 18.4%


It is a bit depressing on two counts:
- the average 60 YO guy has <85% chance of living to 70 (too soon)
- ~20% of average guys will be around at 90 (outlive savings?)
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Old 01-01-2017, 09:22 PM   #2
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Odds are better if eat healthy, work out, etc.... So do what you can to improve things for yourself! Hopefully you already are.
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Old 01-01-2017, 09:35 PM   #3
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I don't care about how long I live.

I care about having as much fun as I can -
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Old 01-01-2017, 09:39 PM   #4
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We're all above average
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Old 01-01-2017, 10:04 PM   #5
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What were these stats just a few generations ago? Based on that I'm already playing with the house's money.
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Old 01-01-2017, 10:05 PM   #6
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All I can say is that the rest of you guys are screwed.
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Old 01-01-2017, 10:14 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tekward View Post
From mortality tables for a 60 year old guy:

age (Male) 60
Death Probability @60 1.14%
Life Expectancy = 20.92
Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%
Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%
Prob of 30 years past 60= 18.4%


It is a bit depressing on two counts:
- the average 60 YO guy has <85% chance of living to 70 (too soon)
- ~20% of average guys will be around at 90 (outlive savings?)
This bed is too soft! This bed is too hard! No matter what, we are definitely screwed.

Ha
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Old 01-01-2017, 10:40 PM   #8
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Old 01-02-2017, 12:27 AM   #9
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thanks for the stats. Let's enjoy every moment while we can!
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Old 01-02-2017, 12:31 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tekward View Post
From mortality tables for a 60 year old guy:

age (Male) 60
Death Probability @60 1.14%
Life Expectancy = 20.92
Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%
Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%
Prob of 30 years past 60= 18.4%


It is a bit depressing on two counts:
- the average 60 YO guy has <85% chance of living to 70 (too soon)
- ~20% of average guys will be around at 90 (outlive savings?)

I think you are reading this wrong... there is a GREATER than 84% chance you will be living at 70...... (you have the less than sign)...

If you think about what you wrote... 85 die within the first 10 years but 20% live past 90... that is 105%....
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Old 01-02-2017, 04:26 AM   #11
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If you make it to 100 - you got it made ....... hardly anyone dies after that.
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Old 01-02-2017, 05:55 AM   #12
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Don't forget that the longer you live, the better your odds get.
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Old 01-02-2017, 06:08 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
I think you are reading this wrong... there is a GREATER than 84% chance you will be living at 70...... (you have the less than sign)...

If you think about what you wrote... 85 die within the first 10 years but 20% live past 90... that is 105%....

Texas is right. You are reading it backwards.
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Old 01-02-2017, 06:58 AM   #14
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As they say.....no one is getting out of here alive. Just a matter of when.
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Old 01-02-2017, 07:18 AM   #15
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As they say.....no one is getting out of here alive. Just a matter of when.
I'm accepting donations to demand a recount.
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Old 01-02-2017, 07:21 AM   #16
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All I can say is that I don't see anything in these stats that will cause me to increase my sobriety.
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Old 01-02-2017, 07:41 AM   #17
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I think everyone reaches a point where they really, really get that life is finite. For most of our lives, we just kind of push it aside, the same way many younger people do about saving for retirement.

Better to acknowledge our mortality at a younger age and make the most of it rather than act surprised when we start to fade.
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Old 01-02-2017, 07:43 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
This bed is too soft! This bed is too hard! No matter what, we are definitely screwed.

Ha
Yeah, I really don't get this thread. I guess the OP considers ages 70-90 as the sweet spot. These stats say that about 2/3 of guys will fall in there. What's wrong with that? Pretty good odds, I'd say.

Want to improve those odds of making it to 70? Take charge of your health, and avoid unnecessary risks. There's no sense of worrying about the other things that may take you out then.

Want to not out live your savings after 90? Take control of your financial health. Save enough and track your spending so you know if you have to cut back. Defer SS to 70, or at least time starting it at a market low.

Or, just bask in the sorrow that you will die some day and it might not be at a convenient time for you, if that's what gets you off. Try not to bring others around you down with your cloudy attitude though.
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Old 01-02-2017, 07:49 AM   #19
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Nobody gets out alive !
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Old 01-02-2017, 08:09 AM   #20
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I wrote this once before....

I want to know WHERE I going to die at and then I just won't go there.
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