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01-01-2017, 07:25 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 428
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Sobering Probabilities
From mortality tables for a 60 year old guy:
age (Male) 60
Death Probability @60 1.14%
Life Expectancy = 20.92
Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%
Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%
Prob of 30 years past 60= 18.4%
It is a bit depressing on two counts:
- the average 60 YO guy has <85% chance of living to 70 (too soon)
- ~20% of average guys will be around at 90 (outlive savings?)
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01-01-2017, 08:22 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Ex-Cali
Posts: 1,236
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Odds are better if eat healthy, work out, etc.... So do what you can to improve things for yourself! Hopefully you already are.
__________________
______________________
The plan was September 1, 2022 and I am 95% there. Still working a few hours a week at the real job.
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01-01-2017, 08:35 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 8,968
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I don't care about how long I live.
I care about having as much fun as I can -
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01-01-2017, 08:39 PM
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#4
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 33
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We're all above average
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01-01-2017, 09:04 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,877
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What were these stats just a few generations ago? Based on that I'm already playing with the house's money.
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01-01-2017, 09:05 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 2,232
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All I can say is that the rest of you guys are screwed.
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01-01-2017, 09:14 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tekward
From mortality tables for a 60 year old guy:
age (Male) 60
Death Probability @60 1.14%
Life Expectancy = 20.92
Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%
Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%
Prob of 30 years past 60= 18.4%
It is a bit depressing on two counts:
- the average 60 YO guy has <85% chance of living to 70 (too soon)
- ~20% of average guys will be around at 90 (outlive savings?)
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This bed is too soft! This bed is too hard! No matter what, we are definitely screwed.
Ha
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01-01-2017, 09:40 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 11,401
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Life is a sexually transmitted disease with 100% mortality.
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01-01-2017, 11:27 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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thanks for the stats. Let's enjoy every moment while we can!
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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01-01-2017, 11:31 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,205
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tekward
From mortality tables for a 60 year old guy:
age (Male) 60
Death Probability @60 1.14%
Life Expectancy = 20.92
Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%
Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%
Prob of 30 years past 60= 18.4%
It is a bit depressing on two counts:
- the average 60 YO guy has <85% chance of living to 70 (too soon)
- ~20% of average guys will be around at 90 (outlive savings?)
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I think you are reading this wrong... there is a GREATER than 84% chance you will be living at 70...... (you have the less than sign)...
If you think about what you wrote... 85 die within the first 10 years but 20% live past 90... that is 105%....
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01-02-2017, 03:26 AM
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#11
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: An island off the coast of Florida. (Ok - if you really need to know it's Vero Beach)
Posts: 633
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If you make it to 100 - you got it made ....... hardly anyone dies after that.
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01-02-2017, 04:55 AM
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#12
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 25,199
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Don't forget that the longer you live, the better your odds get.
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01-02-2017, 05:08 AM
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#13
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 296
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud
I think you are reading this wrong... there is a GREATER than 84% chance you will be living at 70...... (you have the less than sign)...
If you think about what you wrote... 85 die within the first 10 years but 20% live past 90... that is 105%....
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Texas is right. You are reading it backwards.
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01-02-2017, 05:58 AM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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As they say.....no one is getting out of here alive. Just a matter of when.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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01-02-2017, 06:18 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 8,368
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52
As they say.....no one is getting out of here alive. Just a matter of when.
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I'm accepting donations to demand a recount.
__________________
"Exit, pursued by a bear."
The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
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01-02-2017, 06:21 AM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,764
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All I can say is that I don't see anything in these stats that will cause me to increase my sobriety.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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01-02-2017, 06:41 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,328
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I think everyone reaches a point where they really, really get that life is finite. For most of our lives, we just kind of push it aside, the same way many younger people do about saving for retirement.
Better to acknowledge our mortality at a younger age and make the most of it rather than act surprised when we start to fade.
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01-02-2017, 06:43 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,202
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
This bed is too soft! This bed is too hard! No matter what, we are definitely screwed.
Ha
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Yeah, I really don't get this thread. I guess the OP considers ages 70-90 as the sweet spot. These stats say that about 2/3 of guys will fall in there. What's wrong with that? Pretty good odds, I'd say.
Want to improve those odds of making it to 70? Take charge of your health, and avoid unnecessary risks. There's no sense of worrying about the other things that may take you out then.
Want to not out live your savings after 90? Take control of your financial health. Save enough and track your spending so you know if you have to cut back. Defer SS to 70, or at least time starting it at a market low.
Or, just bask in the sorrow that you will die some day and it might not be at a convenient time for you, if that's what gets you off. Try not to bring others around you down with your cloudy attitude though.
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01-02-2017, 06:49 AM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,878
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Nobody gets out alive !
__________________
Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
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01-02-2017, 07:09 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: The Great Wide Open
Posts: 3,789
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I wrote this once before....
I want to know WHERE I going to die at and then I just won't go there.
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