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Soc Sec Projections vs Actual
Old 09-06-2017, 01:50 PM   #1
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Soc Sec Projections vs Actual

DH will start claiming SS next year. For those who recently claimed, did you find that your actual amount was close to the projected amount from SS online? He has been retired for 6 years, so no new earned income to consider.
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Old 09-06-2017, 01:56 PM   #2
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For me the online estimator was either dead on or within single digits, I forget exactly now, it's been a while. And like your DH I hadn't worked for a couple of years before applying for SS.
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Old 09-06-2017, 02:10 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by bizlady View Post
did you find that your actual amount was close to the projected amount from SS online?
It should be close as you near retirement, yes.

More generally ....

The number their website provides adjusts for inflation and maybe future earnings. So if inflation or earnings are incorrectly estimated, the number they provide might be inaccurate.

Personally, I keep a tab on my retirement spreadsheet that does the math in 'today's' dollars. It is basically, Sum of (max 35 yearly (Taxed SS * Factor)) / 420. This number is then tiered into 90%, 32%, and 15% (tiers also change over time) to get monthly benefit amount at FRA. The number is then further adjusted for early (prior to FRA) or late collection.

I do this math in new years day. This past Jan. 1, there was a 25% difference for me in the number the web site calculated compared to my version of their actual math. I expect these number to converge as I approach FRA. The difference is probably the Actuaries estimate of inflation between now and FRA for me.
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Old 09-06-2017, 02:23 PM   #4
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I just received a letter from SS telling me my future benefit. It's within a few dollars of what I computed using anypia.exe that I downloaded. And that program must be downloaded new each year in order to get the latest inflation data.

And I believe the dollar amounts are always in today's dollars. In other words, they do not project with inflation into the future.

Hence, the numbers that I originally computed in 2012 and just now in 2017 reflected the inflation during this period: 8%.
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Old 09-06-2017, 02:36 PM   #5
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DW just claimed SS. The amount was exactly equal to the simple on-estimator.

Actually, we met with the local SS office about six months ago to confirm the estimate. It was dead-on with the detailed estimate they had at that time, as well.
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Old 09-06-2017, 03:19 PM   #6
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DW just claimed SS. The amount was exactly equal to the simple on-estimator.

Actually, we met with the local SS office about six months ago to confirm the estimate. It was dead-on with the detailed estimate they had at that time, as well.
Did you have several years of zero's before you filed?
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Old 09-07-2017, 06:55 AM   #7
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Did you have several years of zero's before you filed?
My question as well.
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Old 09-07-2017, 07:49 AM   #8
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Yes, she quit working in 2010.
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Old 09-07-2017, 08:38 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GalaxyBoy View Post
DW just claimed SS. The amount was exactly equal to the simple on-estimator.

Actually, we met with the local SS office about six months ago to confirm the estimate. It was dead-on with the detailed estimate they had at that time, as well.
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Yes, she quit working in 2010.
Did she contribute to SS for 35 years, then have 7 years of zeros when filed?

I will have about 8 years of zeros straight when in reach 66.5, but I contributed 35 years because I worked in high school and in college. And have a few zeros in-between moving from state.
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Old 09-07-2017, 07:48 PM   #10
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Did she contribute to SS for 35 years, then have 7 years of zeros when filed?
Correct.
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Old 09-07-2017, 07:54 PM   #11
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good to know- thanks all. Nice to know what we can plan on later next year.
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Old 09-08-2017, 06:14 AM   #12
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For me the online estimator was either dead on or within single digits, I forget exactly now, it's been a while. And like your DH I hadn't worked for a couple of years before applying for SS.
Same for my brother.
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