Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Social Security Benefits Could Get Their Biggest Boost in 40 Years.
Old 05-13-2022, 06:47 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 177
Social Security Benefits Could Get Their Biggest Boost in 40 Years.

Quote:
Now a report from The Senior Citizens League predicts another bump is coming in 2023 that could raise benefits by 8.6%, the biggest increase since 1981.

Impacting roughly 70 million Americans, this year's increase raised the average benefit for a retired worker to $1,658 per month, according to the Social Security Administration.

If the prediction by TSCL, which advocates for older Americans, is accurate, beneficiaries could see another increase of about $143 a month in 2023, bringing their check to approximately $1,800.
https://www.cnet.com/personal-financ...you-might-get/

Seems kind of early to be predicting this but I thought it might be of interest.
Graybeard is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 05-13-2022, 07:12 PM   #2
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 30
We're more than half way thru the calculation period (3rd Quarter of 2021 -- 3rd Quarter of 2022) and the inflation trend is not moderating much, if at all.
azxracer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2022, 07:20 PM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Reading, MA
Posts: 662
Ok, but will the increase be enough to fill up my F-150's 36 gallon tank at $6 per gallon for regular?
TheWizard is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2022, 07:26 PM   #4
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 97
It's probably trivial and easy enough to figure out, but I'm sleepy (and dopey) since it's almost bedtime.

Wondering if the inflation adjustment effects the payback period between taking early vs. waiting until 70. With high inflation, in one case I'm getting 8.5% of $4000 vs 8.5% of $2000 (for sake of easy discussion). Of course that interest then compounds, so does "the wait until 70" pull ahead over time compared to "take it early"?
__________________
Some say nothing is impossible, I do nothing every day.
HarryHawk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2022, 07:32 PM   #5
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Reading, MA
Posts: 662
Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryHawk View Post
It's probably trivial and easy enough to figure out, but I'm sleepy (and dopey) since it's almost bedtime.

Wondering if the inflation adjustment effects the payback period between taking early vs. waiting until 70. With high inflation, in one case I'm getting 8.5% of $4000 vs 8.5% of $2000 (for sake of easy discussion). Of course that interest then compounds, so does "the wait until 70" pull ahead over time compared to "take it early"?
The percentage increase due to inflation applies to your current benefit amount, no matter when it was taken...
TheWizard is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2022, 08:15 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 14,122
The percentage increase is compounded. So over 15-20 years it can really add up.
IMHO, if you can do it, taking SS at 70 is a great way to insure against portfolio failure and/or excess longevity.
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.

Self proclaimed President for Life of Outliers United.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2022, 08:20 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 1,960
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWizard View Post
Ok, but will the increase be enough to fill up my F-150's 36 gallon tank at $6 per gallon for regular?
I recently got a "truckette", a Ford Maverick Hybrid. I've been averaging 42 MPG so far.

As a result, my F150 isn't being used as much.
copyright1997reloaded is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2022, 09:19 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 8,444
Quote:
Originally Posted by Graybeard View Post
https://www.cnet.com/personal-financ...you-might-get/

Seems kind of early to be predicting this but I thought it might be of interest.

It is always fun looking forward to more money. I have my expense optimization lists made out now with ideas to try to lower our personal inflation rate this year. If we can get more from AA next year and have lower expenses, that works for me.
__________________
Even clouds seem bright and breezy, 'Cause the livin' is free and easy, See the rat race in a new way, Like you're wakin' up to a new day (Dr. Tarr and Professor Fether lyrics, Alan Parsons Project, based on an EA Poe story)
daylatedollarshort is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2022, 09:45 PM   #9
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 668
Will an increase like this mean that the SS haircut happens even sooner, and/or will be even larger?
__________________
FIREd at 59.5 on 2019-01-18
camfused is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2022, 10:40 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Katsmeow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: DFW Area (Tx)
Posts: 5,007
Quote:
Originally Posted by azxracer View Post
We're more than half way thru the calculation period (3rd Quarter of 2021 -- 3rd Quarter of 2022) and the inflation trend is not moderating much, if at all.
It will be based upon the third quarter of this year compared to the third quarter of last year. Potentially it could significantly decrease before then. I suspect it will decrease from what it is now but I imagine there will be a substantial increase for next year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by camfused View Post
Will an increase like this mean that the SS haircut happens even sooner, and/or will be even larger?
You are making an assumption that there will be one. Is it possible? Sure. Do I think it is very likely? Unknown. There are many, many other options that would obviate such an action.
Katsmeow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2022, 03:19 AM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
The percentage increase is compounded. So over 15-20 years it can really add up.
IMHO, if you can do it, taking SS at 70 is a great way to insure against portfolio failure and/or excess longevity.
That was my thought as well. Not sure if it would make a big difference, but there is detailed analysis on this topic and it never seems to include any inflation scenarios.
__________________
Some say nothing is impossible, I do nothing every day.
HarryHawk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2022, 04:36 AM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DrRoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 3,844
Quote:
IMHO, if you can do it, taking SS at 70 is a great way to insure against portfolio failure and/or excess longevity.
I am currently in the window, and thinking the same thing.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
DrRoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2022, 07:20 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
jollystomper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 4,520
The related question is, what will the Medicare Part B increase be, and how much will it impact the SS increase?

Remember, for 2022 SS went up 5.9%... but Medicare Part B went up 14.5%. Just remember, if on Medicare, to look at the net.
__________________
FIREd date: June 26, 2018 - "This Happy Feeling, Going Round and Round!" (GQ)
jollystomper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2022, 07:29 AM   #14
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 655
Do/can they reduce the payment amount if inflation goes down?
joesxm3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2022, 08:00 AM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Dash man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 4,257
Quote:
Originally Posted by jollystomper;
The related question is, what will the Medicare Part B increase be, and how much will it impact the SS increase?

Remember, for 2022 SS went up 5.9%... but Medicare Part B went up 14.5%. Just remember, if on Medicare, to look at the net.

Remember the large increase was because of the expectation that new Alzheimerís drug would be approved by Medicare. Since itís not fully approved, the next increase will hopefully not be as high. Call me an optimist.
Dash man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2022, 08:03 AM   #16
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Reading, MA
Posts: 662
Quote:
Originally Posted by joesxm3 View Post
Do/can they reduce the payment amount if inflation goes down?
No.
But they keep track of CPI-W across the ups and infrequent downs.
So the next increase will be offset by the CPI-W recovery, if that makes sense...
TheWizard is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2022, 08:07 AM   #17
Administrator
Gumby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 19,048
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katsmeow View Post
It will be based upon the third quarter of this year compared to the third quarter of last year. Potentially it could significantly decrease before then. I suspect it will decrease from what it is now but I imagine there will be a substantial increase for next year.....

If we had zero inflation between now and the end of September, the Social Security COLA increase for 2023 would be 6.0%.

CPI-W average 3Q 2021 = 268.421

CPI-W as of April 2022 = 284.575

SS increase for 2023 = CPI-W average 3Q 2022/CPI-W average 3Q 2021

Assuming zero increase from May through September 2022=> 284.575/268.421 = 1.06

Theoretically, we could see deflation between now and the end of September, but that seems unlikely, so I think it is safe to say the COLA increase will be at least 6%. If inflation averaged 5% (year over year) from now to the end of September, the COLA would be 7.8%


https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10526.pdf
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
Gumby is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2022, 09:39 AM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 14,122
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumby View Post
If we had zero inflation between now and the end of September, the Social Security COLA increase for 2023 would be 6.0%.
I would gladly give up any and all of a SS increase to see low or zero percent inflation.

One more point on when to take SS. If you start at 62, after a period of time you are locked in to that decision. If you delay taking SS, you can always turn it on later, at 63, or 65 and 4 months, or 67 and two months. It's not a binary choice. There are at least 95 more points in the future where you can change your mind and start taking SS.
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.

Self proclaimed President for Life of Outliers United.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2022, 09:47 AM   #19
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Posts: 341
If you're not yet 62, this has no impact on your expected benefit, right?
qwerty3656 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2022, 10:13 AM   #20
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Reading, MA
Posts: 662
Quote:
Originally Posted by qwerty3656 View Post
If you're not yet 62, this has no impact on your expected benefit, right?
Wrong.
Your expected benefits will increase by similar amounts...
TheWizard is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Inflation could prompt largest Social Security cost-of-living adjustment in decades. Graybeard FIRE and Money 116 10-15-2021 02:01 PM
Could you retire without social security? bizlady FIRE and Money 180 01-16-2011 09:50 PM
Maximizing Social Security Benefits eyenitnoy FIRE and Money 20 06-18-2006 08:29 PM
SS benefits, delay taking Social Security, Scott Burns article landover FIRE and Money 11 11-29-2005 06:58 PM
Social Security Benefits Cut For Early Retirees Michael Other topics 12 01-05-2005 01:45 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:16 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.