Social Security COLA 2.8%

Dtail said:
Funny just thinking this morning, aren't we due for this number?
Thanks a bunch.
Is there any word on increases on the Medicare Part B yet?
Click to expand...

From a CNBC article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/med...ur-social-security-increase-survey-shows.html



Last July the Medicare trustees report forecast that 2019 Part B monthly premiums will remain at about $134. After that, they are expected to rise about 5 percent each year through 2026. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid typically announces the next year's premium amount in November.
 
VanWinkle said:
From a CNBC article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/med...ur-social-security-increase-survey-shows.html



Last July the Medicare trustees report forecast that 2019 Part B monthly premiums will remain at about $134. After that, they are expected to rise about 5 percent each year through 2026. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid typically announces the next year's premium amount in November.
Click to expand...

Ah okay. Close to the 5.5% that Fidelity uses for its medical inflation number for their calculator.
 
SO question...2018 was our first year of SS with DH. When I calculate the increase, it is $xxxx.93 Does SS round up or down to the nearest dollar?
 
Good news, we get an increase after all. So minimum increase for all my fixed income is at least 2.5% this coming year except my non-COLAd pension.
 
What goes up, must go... up

Not to mention that, for those of us still toiling in the vineyards, the wage base subject to FICA tax will be nudging upward to $132,900.

SSA says that the recipients will receive an increase of 2.8%. But the boost in the 2019 wage base is 3.5%, and the bend points also go up about that much. I'm not an accountant, but shouldn't all those numbers be a lot closer?

Or might this be a move by SS to narrow (every little bit helps) the funding gap? I know that these adjustments are governed by legislation, but I suspect the law allows some leeway for the SS administrators to do some tweaking.

BTW, if you score that kind of scratch, you're in the 94th percentile of earners:

https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-calculator/
 
Mdlerth said:
Not to mention that, for those of us still toiling in the vineyards, the wage base subject to FICA tax will be nudging upward to $132,900.

SSA says that the recipients will receive an increase of 2.8%. But the boost in the 2019 wage base is 3.5%, and the bend points also go up about that much. I'm not an accountant, but shouldn't all those numbers be a lot closer?

Or might this be a move by SS to narrow (every little bit helps) the funding gap? I know that these adjustments are governed by legislation, but I suspect the law allows some leeway for the SS administrators to do some tweaking.

BTW, if you score that kind of scratch, you're in the 94th percentile of earners:

https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-calculator/
Click to expand...

Interesting why the percentage is not the same.
 
Mdlerth said:
Not to mention that, for those of us still toiling in the vineyards, the wage base subject to FICA tax will be nudging upward to $132,900.

SSA says that the recipients will receive an increase of 2.8%. But the boost in the 2019 wage base is 3.5%, and the bend points also go up about that much. I'm not an accountant, but shouldn't all those numbers be a lot closer?

Or might this be a move by SS to narrow (every little bit helps) the funding gap? I know that these adjustments are governed by legislation, but I suspect the law allows some leeway for the SS administrators to do some tweaking.

BTW, if you score that kind of scratch, you're in the 94th percentile of earners:

https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-calculator/
Click to expand...


You must have read my mind.

I was thinking that for those under age 60 or so, the changes in the National Average Wage Index (AWI) will be much more of interest in that this will determine how much all of our prior earnings are bumped up to determine our base SS amount (PIA).

What you are seeing is quite common. Wages grow faster than prices much of the time. As such, Social Security is getting a tiny bit more generous (relative to prices) for each class that reaches the age when SS PIA is determined.

This of course assumes that CPI figures for prices accurately reflects that experienced by a typical SS recipient which is an entirely different discussion that I will leave to another thread.

-gauss
 
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2.8% sounds good to me. I haven’t started taking SS yet. I am waiting to start it due to Obamacare MAGI. If our options in 2019 work out subsidy wise, I may start in January 2019. If that’s not favorable I’ll wait until I’m 65 and starting Medicare. I’ve got 15 months until Medicare!
 
Fedup said:
Interesting why the percentage is not the same.
Click to expand...

More boomers are retiring and becoming eligible every day vs. the number the number of folks entering and remaining in the workforce and contributing.
 
I just realized that today, Oct 11, is the monthly inflation CPI release by the BLS ( I have signed up to receive their emails).

Is the fact that SSA announced the COLAS today not a coincidence? Asked differently - Does the annual SSA COLA announcement always occur on the October release day of the CPI numbers?

-gauss
 
Mdlerth said:
SSA says that the recipients will receive an increase of 2.8%. But the boost in the 2019 wage base is 3.5%, and the bend points also go up about that much. I'm not an accountant, but shouldn't all those numbers be a lot closer?
Click to expand...

Of the three, I believe only the 2.8% increase is tied to the CPI? The others aren't.
 
Last edited:
Mdlerth said:
Not to mention that, for those of us still toiling in the vineyards, the wage base subject to FICA tax will be nudging upward to $132,900.

SSA says that the recipients will receive an increase of 2.8%. But the boost in the 2019 wage base is 3.5%, and the bend points also go up about that much. I'm not an accountant, but shouldn't all those numbers be a lot closer?

Or might this be a move by SS to narrow (every little bit helps) the funding gap? I know that these adjustments are governed by legislation, but I suspect the law allows some leeway for the SS administrators to do some tweaking.

BTW, if you score that kind of scratch, you're in the 94th percentile of earners:

https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-calculator/
Click to expand...

Wage Base goes up by average earnings, cola goes up by price index.
 
gauss said:
I just realized that today, Oct 11, is the monthly inflation CPI release by the BLS ( I have signed up to receive their emails).

Is the fact that SSA announced the COLAS today not a coincidence? Asked differently - Does the annual SSA COLA announcement always occur on the October release day of the CPI numbers?
Click to expand...
Yes. The SS COLA is based on the third quarter CPI-W.

A COLA effective for December of the current year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the CPI-W from the average for the third quarter of the current year to the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective.
Click to expand...

They take the average index value for each of the three months in this year's third quarter, and compare that to the average index value for each of the three months in the prior year's third quarter.

See the table at the bottom of this page:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/latestCOLA.html
 
Last edited:
Bad news for me. I've got a non-COLA'd pension. This reminds me that it is shrinking. I was happier with those 1% increases.
 
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