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09-18-2008, 09:18 AM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 478
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Some perspective
I was cringing at the (unrealized) "losses" in the Bobot portfolio after the recent fall-and-go-boom, when I took a few steps back to see what it looks like in the bigger picture.
It happens that we're a tad ahead in nw than we were exactly 2 years ago, when I only had 4 months to go before ER. I felt pretty good about things then, & won't be needing to draw out anything other than existing cash for at least a few years, so I'm not in a panic to push the big red button.
Maybe I'm whistling past the graveyard, but it's a splendid early fall day & I think I'll go for a nice walk.
__________________
I still don't get it...
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09-18-2008, 09:42 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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Young accumulator reporting in. I've been out of college working now for about 4 years. Our portfolio is still about 2% higher than it was on June 30, 2007. That is mainly due to new contributions.
When I "zoom out" a bit and look at changes in our net worth, the portfolio performance is dampened out a lot. We are paying down a lot of debt (mortgage, credit cards, student loans) every month, and our house has generally managed to go upward (slowly) in value just about every quarter (yes, even in the last couple of years). So far we have had a net worth increase every quarter since I started tracking net worth quarterly back in 2004. Come 9/30/2008, I don't know if we'll be slightly up or slightly down versus last quarter, but I think I can say with substantial certainty that we will be way up year over year for our net worth. Recent market suckage has been a strong headwind in our efforts to increase net worth, but not an insurmountable wall. This will look a lot more like a blip on a graph in 5 or 10 years than a major dip. In fact, I think the market being significantly lower right now, and potentially for another year or more, will increase our net worth long term, as we'll be buying in at lower prices.
Keep your eye on the ball, keep things in perspective, etc. 
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09-18-2008, 09:47 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Houston
Posts: 1,448
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Slightly offtopic, but I think the two of you should team up and become the FUEGOBOT. If anything can get us out of this economic mess, it's a flaming robot.
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09-18-2008, 09:53 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by soupcxan
Slightly offtopic, but I think the two of you should team up and become the FUEGOBOT. If anything can get us out of this economic mess, it's a flaming robot.
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Sounds like a plan! Maybe manufacture flaming robots and sell em to the military for a couple billion each?
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09-18-2008, 10:01 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soupcxan
Slightly offtopic, but I think the two of you should team up and become the FUEGOBOT. If anything can get us out of this economic mess, it's a flaming robot.
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My kid would know, but I think there's a Pokemon named that......... 
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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09-18-2008, 10:10 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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If its any consolation, everyone around here was saying all the same stuff at the end of 2002 and early 2003. By 2004 everyone was pretty happy and crowing about having bought a bunch of stuff at the bottom.
Except for the people who sold and ran to cash at the wrong time and the people who were always in cash. For some reason they stopped the "I'm in cash and dont care about the market!" posts right around the middle of 2003.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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09-18-2008, 10:13 AM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Good news bacon and booze still for sale at the stores!
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09-18-2008, 10:14 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
Except for the people who sold and ran to cash at the wrong time and the people who were always in cash. For some reason they stopped the "I'm in cash and dont care about the market!" posts right around the middle of 2003.
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You don't understand. This time it's different.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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09-18-2008, 10:35 AM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
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more perspective: if i was working now, i wouldn't be giving this current economy a second thought.
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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09-18-2008, 10:43 AM
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#10
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 329
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Oh yeah - I am still DCAing into the 401k etc. As long as the job is there, no worries and if anyone has suggestions for a screaming buys please do post. The gambling port hasn't been traded in a while
-h
__________________
Hope springs eternal in the human breast:Man never is, but always to be blest.
The soul, uneasy and confined from home,Rests and expatiates in a life to come.
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09-18-2008, 11:12 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum
more perspective: if i was working now, i wouldn't be giving this current economy a second thought.
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You might if you thought the current economy jeopardized your continued employment.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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09-18-2008, 11:19 AM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,612
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So when the going gets tough, I say, the tough go hiking. Mt. St. Helens, southwest Washington state on 9/17/2008. Oh the little wisps? Steam. And the generally haziness? Forest fires further east.
__________________
Only got A dimple, would have preferred 2!
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09-18-2008, 11:59 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
You don't understand. This time it's different.
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You're so right.
We're nowhere near as far down as we were then, we havent been attacked by terrorists, and all we've got to show so far are a bunch of companies who screwed up on leverage and liquidity with no actual permanent damages to show for it.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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09-18-2008, 12:02 PM
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#14
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 897
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Pfffft. See? It's only PAPER losses. 
-CC
__________________
"There's those thinkin' more or less, less is more, but if less is more, how you keepin' score?
It means for every point you make, your level drops. Kinda like you're startin' from the top..." "Society" - Eddie Vedder
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09-18-2008, 12:13 PM
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#15
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 17,774
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
You're so right.
We're nowhere near as far down as we were then, we havent been attacked by terrorists, and all we've got to show so far are a bunch of companies who screwed up on leverage and liquidity with no actual permanent damages to show for it.
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Yeah but this time we have those rats from outer space to worry about....
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09-18-2008, 12:20 PM
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#16
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 174
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
You're so right.
We're nowhere near as far down as we were then, we havent been attacked by terrorists, and all we've got to show so far are a bunch of companies who screwed up on leverage and liquidity with no actual permanent damages to show for it.
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What about the ones losing their jobs? That's pretty permanent for them, IMHO.
__________________
Nihil obstat.....
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09-18-2008, 12:33 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MGYog
What about the ones losing their jobs? That's pretty permanent for them, IMHO.
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Well, most find new jobs eventually. Unemployment still isn't running but about 1% or so above the structural unemployment rate. So we are talking about ~1% of our labor force that is in trouble? And for the first 9 months they receive a substantial unemployment check.
Clearly unemployment is a big bump in the road for most (particularly those who are "undercapitalized"). But permanent??
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09-18-2008, 01:02 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum
more perspective: if i was working now, i wouldn't be giving this current economy a second thought.
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I think you are right.
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09-18-2008, 02:48 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Nope, these days if you lose your job you have to walk the plank.
Besides, unemployment in 2002 and 2003 was higher than it is today.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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09-19-2008, 03:18 PM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Cooksburg,PA
Posts: 1,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gotadimple
So when the going gets tough, I say, the tough go hiking....
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Gotadimple,
Good one!
Free to Canoe
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