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Old 10-11-2020, 11:13 AM   #41
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Initially, I was shocked by the number of “our location is hot” and “it’s a seller’s market” comments. How could that be in a pandemic with so many unemployed or struggling?

Then I remembered that I was an economics major all those years ago, and that price is a function of supply and demand. Demand may not have changed much, or may have even dropped since many do t want to move during a pandemic. But supply has also dropped for the same reason. I moved because I had to relocate for a job, but I think many people are putting off selling until we are in more stable times.

Anyway, selfishly, I’m hoping that the market in the areas I’m interested in drop off a cliff in 2022 when I’m ready to buy! I think they may, as we see people potentially have to sell their second home/vacation home, or possibly face foreclosure on a primary residence. I don’t want people to lose their primary homes, but I do t see how it can be avoided if the economy doesn’t go back to pre-COVID levels.
In our state, it's property taxes. California has a law; PROP13, where the property taxes are 1% of sale price and limited to a 2% increase max of that amount. I bought my home in 1985 for $96,500. It's market analysis (not an official appraisal) is somewhat north of $700,000. I pay $1,200 a year property tax. The buyer of my home will pay at least $7,000. If I were to sell and buy another home, property taxes on the new home would be beyond my budget. I'd like to downsize someday, but not at the expense of paying a premium to the state for the privilege. So I'll sit on it and probably sell only if I move out of state. This is a HUGE problem in California. There are some contingencies for selling and moving my property tax to a smaller (less expensive) home, but it's based on owner age and cooperative counties.
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Start of the Real Estate slump?
Old 10-11-2020, 11:16 AM   #42
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Start of the Real Estate slump?

I got a letter from a real estate company that said the want to buy my home now for $365k cash. 3 houses away from me sold for $402K w a much lower sq. Footage. A builder just advertised they will be constructing a new house for $450k with smaller sq.ft. In my section. Im in NC .. not selling below $450K
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Old 10-11-2020, 11:24 AM   #43
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Central VA is a sellers market. No 100% gains in 2 year kind of stuff, but 10%/yr over the last 2, easy.
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Old 10-11-2020, 11:34 AM   #44
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Funny, I just read this article right before coming here and seeing this thread at the top of the list: San Diego Community News Group - The fall real estate market remains strong

Quote:
In the 92115 zip-code, the median home price jumped to $649,000 with very little inventory of only 25 homes for sale. In the 92119, inventory of homes is even lower with only 16 homes for sale, less than one month’s supply and the median home price increased to an all-time high of $718,000! And finally in 92120, the median home price rose to a jaw dropping $812,500 with only 11 homes actively for sale.
These zip codes are inside the San Diego city limits, but inland, about 10 miles from the coast, and have mostly older single-family homes with yards.
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Old 10-11-2020, 11:49 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by Poopycat View Post
Anyway, selfishly, Iím hoping that the market in the areas Iím interested in drop off a cliff in 2022 when Iím ready to buy! I think they may, as we see people potentially have to sell their second home/vacation home, or possibly face foreclosure on a primary residence. I donít want people to lose their primary homes, but I do t see how it can be avoided if the economy doesnít go back to pre-COVID levels.

Like you, I am selfish in this regard hoping for a housing price reset around the beginning of 2023. Probably just wishful thinking.
I've been renting for the past couple of years socking money away so as to be prepared to move out of state once I retire in a couple of more years. It is depressing to see my purchasing power, as well as selection, rapidly diminishing.
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Old 10-11-2020, 03:00 PM   #46
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The residential real estate market has been really strong in Vermont.... lots of people moving in from out-of-state. End of our street sold recently in less than a month whereas 5 years ago when the previous owner sold it took 2 years. A friend recently moved back from California... he is tickled pink at the nice 1920s house he bought for $750k... says it would have cost $3.5m in California.

My bigger concern is commercial real estate... especially office and retail. I've heard numerous stories of companies not renewing office space leases because with so many employees working remotely they don't need as much office space. And retail is just dreadful.
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Old 10-11-2020, 04:39 PM   #47
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COVID means too many unknown people marching through your house, touching things, sneezing, etc. so owners may be sitting tight.

Then there are new building rules that require things like fire sprinkler systems that add costs. Itís to expensive to build starter homes. Starter homes are now older homes in less well located neighborhoods. What else is new?
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Old 10-11-2020, 06:18 PM   #48
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My goodness! This is "flyover country", not California or Manhattan!

I smiled at that remark. Somebody's cow wandered into our yard this morning and I had to make several calls to neighbors find out who she belonged to. I think I'm in flyover country too.

Oh and yeah, the real estate market is hot here too.
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Canít rely on Zillow
Old 10-11-2020, 10:50 PM   #49
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Canít rely on Zillow

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Originally Posted by jollystomper View Post
In the last couple of months we started receiving mailings from local outfits offering to buy our home for cash (HA!).

In the last 2 weeks we have gotten 3 calls from realtors checking if we were interested in selling our home and promising a fast, profitable sale due to the market.

The price on Zillow is up to IMHO a crazy amount

The last time all of these things happened in our area was 2007...
You canít rely on Zillow as it is all over the place. They say my place gained 5% these past 6 months. A similar sized property 400 yards up the street just sold at a increase of 60% from last year. If there arenít enough properties being sold Zillow has no data to use. Broker says I can get 25% more than what I paid 18 months ago. After improvements and closing costs for purchase and sale, moving etc it is not worth it. Even at 25% more I think I got a good deal. Due to pandemic mostly rented on AirBnB and my net return is about 14%, Not counting appreciation. so going to pass on all the requests.
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Old 10-12-2020, 02:29 AM   #50
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I smiled at that remark. Somebody's cow wandered into our yard this morning and I had to make several calls to neighbors find out who she belonged to. I think I'm in flyover country too.

Oh and yeah, the real estate market is hot here too.
We lived in a farm house back in the midwest for several years (didn't own the farm.) More times than I wish to recall, we had to chase a small heard of Charolais cattle back into their own "yard" and call the owner to fix the fence. More than once, on a dark night, we nearly hit black (angus?) on our narrow country road. THAT would ruin your day. Flyover country, indeed. Actually miss those days, the corn fields, the cattle and horses, etc. - once in a while.

DW keeps up on the markets back "home." They have been on a tear of late. Must be all them fancy rich folks movin' outta the Big City! YMMV
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Old 10-12-2020, 05:01 AM   #51
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You can’t rely on Zillow as it is all over the place. They say my place gained 5% these past 6 months. A similar sized property 400 yards up the street just sold at a increase of 60% from last year. If there aren’t enough properties being sold Zillow has no data to use. Broker says I can get 25% more than what I paid 18 months ago. After improvements and closing costs for purchase and sale, moving etc it is not worth it. Even at 25% more I think I got a good deal. Due to pandemic mostly rented on AirBnB and my net return is about 14%, Not counting appreciation. so going to pass on all the requests.
In my county, the best place to get a feel for the market is to look at the comparable sales they list. They use these to base the tax evaluation. The comps auto-update and you can follow them. You can also cruise other recent sales.

All of this is freely and easily available on most county sites depending on your state and county. Some make it easy (my county), others make it difficult.
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Old 10-12-2020, 06:01 AM   #52
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You canít rely on Zillow as it is all over the place. They say my place gained 5% these past 6 months. A similar sized property 400 yards up the street just sold at a increase of 60% from last year. If there arenít enough properties being sold Zillow has no data to use. Broker says I can get 25% more than what I paid 18 months ago. After improvements and closing costs for purchase and sale, moving etc it is not worth it. Even at 25% more I think I got a good deal. Due to pandemic mostly rented on AirBnB and my net return is about 14%, Not counting appreciation. so going to pass on all the requests.
+1
I have a room addition that is open to the main house by a 48 sq ft opening (archway from removing french doors in a remodel) and another glassed in sun room with a wall air conditioner that total 550 sq ft that are not included in the sq ft of the house for the estimate because they don't have ducts for heating. Those rooms would have increased my sq footage by 35%. Since the ducts for the house are in a concrete slab there is no easy way to tap into them although I individually heat and cool the rooms by other means. If I get the urge maybe I could install one of the European style wall mounted heaters for <$1k to meet the requirements but this is Florida and I am busy living the easy life.



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Old 10-12-2020, 06:08 AM   #53
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Speaking of zillow, my neighbor did something to his to make his value go up. He is a Realtor. I think he just sweetened the descriptions and marked stuff new and improved.

I should ask him and maybe do the same. I'm just not sure if Zillow charges you to "claim" your property. Also not sure I want an account with them.

It is actually to all our benefit if the zillow price goes up. Even if I'm not selling now, more accurate prices could lead to higher prices in the neighborhood in general. This is probably why RealtorNeighbor updated his.
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Old 10-12-2020, 07:10 AM   #54
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As we all know, RE is highly regional and there are many variables as to making a certain area (or even a single neighborhood) hot or not. My DW is in the RE leasing management side of the biz and currently oversees rentals in 7 (or 8 maybe, I can't recall) states and for the most part, the time on the market (rentals) is still very low. There has been a slight slow down in the number of investment firms buying up SFHs, but it is still happening.

In our neck of the woods, some home are going quickly while others are sitting. The ones with a little acreage seem to be selling faster. We purchased some acreage behind our home to keep any future development at a distance and we have had 3 unsolicited offers in the last couple of months.

Antidotally, there is also some consolidation of some of the largest RE firms going on, so that *could* be a sign of change...but of course we all know that nothing rarely stays the same, especially these days!
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Old 10-12-2020, 11:10 AM   #55
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I should ask him and maybe do the same. I'm just not sure if Zillow charges you to "claim" your property. Also not sure I want an account with them
I claimed my account on Zillow several years ago. IIRC at that time there were people claiming accounts (not the owner) and then offering to rent the house on Craigslist. Our home does not get the Google Maps car down hardly ever. The picture on Zillow was 15 years ago when it was being built. It was ugly. By claiming the house you can change the picture. Before it went on the market I changed the picture on most of the sites.
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Old 10-12-2020, 11:45 AM   #56
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San Diego is very much a sellers market. Stuff is selling quickly for much higher prices than I expect. Only one's sitting are those that are REALLY overpriced. (not updated in 20 years, on a busy street, problems with the house but priced like the fully updated version on a quiet street, that was flawless in location and finishes.)

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Big exodus from NYC, perhaps even bigger than after 9/11. [After 9/11, there were plenty of people buying quite far from NYC, but mostly along train corridors and also limited due to the fact that their jobs required them to be in the city. I know this because I lived upstate but was working in NYC. This time around, technology has improved enough to (perhaps) make this a more permanent thing.)

Side note: I started "working from home" in the mid 90's, now it is trendy.
An acquaintance from my beach walks is bi-coastal... He fled NYC at the beginning of covid and lived in his La Jolla home... then went back to NYC/Hamptons for the summer... He said many friends with kids stayed in the Hamptons while kids were attending virtual private school... He loved the empty city. But... with covid numbers creeping up in NYC, he fled back to La Jolla.

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In our state, it's property taxes. California has a law; PROP13, where the property taxes are 1% of sale price and limited to a 2% increase max of that amount. I bought my home in 1985 for $96,500. It's market analysis (not an official appraisal) is somewhat north of $700,000. I pay $1,200 a year property tax. The buyer of my home will pay at least $7,000. If I were to sell and buy another home, property taxes on the new home would be beyond my budget. I'd like to downsize someday, but not at the expense of paying a premium to the state for the privilege. So I'll sit on it and probably sell only if I move out of state. This is a HUGE problem in California. There are some contingencies for selling and moving my property tax to a smaller (less expensive) home, but it's based on owner age and cooperative counties.
In most counties you can transfer your prop-13 tax rate to a lesser priced house if you are over 55. Google prop 60 and prop 90 and prop 121. Those amended prop 13.

Also check your ballot. Prop 19 is a further amendment to prop 13 (if it passes.)

We are looking at a downsize in our future - but won't if we'd have to pay much much much higher property taxes. (Ours are low due to prop 13.)
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Old 10-12-2020, 01:37 PM   #57
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My bigger concern is commercial real estate... especially office and retail. I've heard numerous stories of companies not renewing office space leases because with so many employees working remotely they don't need as much office space. And retail is just dreadful.
+1
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Old 10-16-2020, 04:07 PM   #58
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North coast of California has gone up at least 30% over the last year. The Space Coast of Florida, where our other place is, has gone up about 12% over the last 4 months or so. With materials and labor going up, it is only going to get more expensive long term. There may be a crash sometime over the next two years or so, but long term...up up up.
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Old 10-16-2020, 05:08 PM   #59
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Seattle area is still on fire too.
If you list your house, you better have a place to move to in the works.
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Small Town TN
Old 10-16-2020, 05:13 PM   #60
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Small Town TN

Here in our small area of TN we live in a development of about 50 homes. People very seldom leave but this summer we had three homes go on the market. All three sold quickly and for their asking price. The market here, admittedly a low cost area to live, appears to be good.
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