Start of the Real Estate slump?

[Retch The Grate]

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Originally Posted by skipro33 This is in California. So many dotcom businesses are fleeing the SF area for the more rural and suburban areas that it's like a land rush. Huge home equities from Bay Area homes coming in to buy relatively cheaper places that are much larger and can accommodate home offices as well as enough room to make sheltering in place more like a remote resort than the tiny zero setback prison cells Bay Area homes are known for.

Meanwhile we are looking to buy in SF proper, will see what numbers end up looking like but I'm hoping for 2100+sq ft for between 1.4-1.8m. I hope as many people keep decamping for the boonies as possible. We've spent the pandemic watching the available real estate for sale flare up all across the city, heaviest in the neighborhoods that the techies live in. (we are techies too, but are hoping to find a place out in the parts of the city we live in around Mt Davidson).

[Kroeran]

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Originally Posted by street Why the boom in home sales Low interest, cheap money must be a part of the reason?

Low interest
24/7 life at home including older kids, need for space
Liberation from commute
Bank accounts fat from no spending on travel, eating out, concerts and the arts
Gardening hobby
Fear of high rise elevators
Fear of retirement institutions and nursing homes leading to more care at home
Gyms/yoga studios closed hence need for gym and virtual yoga space at home

Some of the small villages in Eastern Ontario are approaching 50% and even doubling of house prices year over year

Key is to look over the horizon at what the world will look like once most of the vulnerable population is vaccinated in 6 months

[Kroeran]

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Originally Posted by freedomatlast Homes around here are selling quickly. Prices are definitely up substantially from a year ago. Great time to sell without a realtor and pocket the savings. Ours sold with a posting on Zillow in a day and a half.

We saw a for sale by owner sign in a neighbourhood we watch as a future downsizing option and chatted with the seller. We concluded 10 years too soon for us.

In the past my view was that trying to save on realtor fees was not worth what you gave up on market liquidity plus the fact that persons on the buy side would only be sophisticated buyers who would bargain hard, too hard.

I am totally out of the loop now on the pros and cons of all the different listing and buying options available and how the legal side works without a realtor.

[Rambler]

Here in the East valley of the Phoenix region, homes are selling faster than hot cakes. Every one of the 6-7 homes in our development (124 homes) that have gone up for sale this year sold in a couple of days, except for one that had been significantly over priced...that one still sold in about 4 weeks. We had one go on the market for $1.1M, sold in an hour, cash offer, with the stipulation that it had to close in 15 days. We’ve been looking around Cedar City Utah for a smaller summer getaway home...found the perfect place, only a year old, a bit over half acre, RV parking with full hookups...it had four offers in 6 hours, two of which were above asking price. The owner countered higher than the highest, and got it.

I think a lot of it has to do with where you or the property are. Here in AZ, we are having a massive influx from California, as is Utah and Nevada. There isn’t much inventory, and builders can’t get materials fast enough to keep up with the demand.

[Chuckanut]

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Originally Posted by Rambler I think a lot of it has to do with where you or the property are. Here in AZ, we are having a massive influx from California, as is Utah and Nevada. There isn’t much inventory, and builders can’t get materials fast enough to keep up with the demand.

So, with all of these Californians leaving for greener pastures, why aren't home prices in California going down? I realize interest rates are historically low, but still....

I have to think the great exodus from California is a fig newton of somebody's imagination.

[Rambler]

Well, we left. We overbuilt and took a loss...my bad. Three former neighbors have also left and one more is on their way out, but they all bought after the 2009 crash and made out like a charm. Roughly half of our new neighbors in this 124 home development are California transplants. We are trying to get into a new development about 3 miles away...similar story there. From what I’ve heard, COVID has taught a lot of companies that working from home isn’t all that bad (for some professions), and thus a lot of folks who have worked in the Bay Area are selling while the prices are still outrageous and getting a lot more house for their money, often mortgage free.

[Koolau]

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Originally Posted by Chuckanut So, with all of these Californians leaving for greener pastures, why aren't home prices in California going down? I realize interest rates are historically low, but still.... I have to think the great exodus from California is a fig newton of somebody's imagination.

I suppose by definition, a larger number of homes for sale (Cali or anywhere) will drive down prices. You may just not notice the "effect" because Cali homes are STILL in short supply - just not as short. Prices still climb, but maybe not as fast - "lost in the noise" comes to mind but YMMV.

I can't vouch for this website:

https://strangesounds.org/2019/11/ca...er-states.html

I just googled it so don't know what political bent (or lack thereof) might be involved. They suggest numbers like 200,000 per year net loss. In a state big as Cali, that would not be noticeable to most folks. But, that kind of change has to affect prices - even if you can't tease out the effect. Once again, YMMV.

[bolt]

Everyone has their own personal experiences, biases, and particulars.
Some utilize R.E for an income stream, others, a lifestyle.

Some pay retail/or what the market will bear* & others refuse to on principle alone & because they can, ..concerning R.E.
Amassing capital/leverage is paramount to some people.

RE is its own beast. I know one individual exiting S/CA considering their future taxes alone in the move. Leverage is paramount.
Good luck & Best wishes.....

[troutnut1]

Real estate is red hot in Montana with Californian’s and Washingtonians fleeing and trying to find a new state to ruin...

[TrvlBug]

People have been leaving California since forever and housing prices keep going up, up, up. Interesting tidbit in today's news that Silicon Valley companies are/are thinking of reducing pay of those working from home and leaving the area. Go for it. My former company did the same. They were unable to compete with pay and hired as well as encouraged California based employees to up and relocate to their other locations. Even with the reduced pay at the non-California locations, moving to the other location still provided a much better quality of life.

It seems that unless you've got mucho $$$ or have lived here forever like DH and I have, you can't afford it. DH and I joke that we could never afford our house if we had to buy it today.

[jkern]

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Originally Posted by TrvlBug People have been leaving California since forever and housing prices keep going up, up, up. Interesting tidbit in today's news that Silicon Valley companies are/are thinking of reducing pay of those working from home and leaving the area. Go for it. My former company did the same. They were unable to compete with pay and hired as well as encouraged California based employees to up and relocate to their other locations. Even with the reduced pay at the non-California locations, moving to the other location still provided a much better quality of life. It seems that unless you've got mucho $$$ or have lived here forever like DH and I have, you can't afford it. DH and I joke that we could never afford our house if we had to buy it today.

I know it appears that the prices are astronomically high (SF Bay Area), but I believe there are more affordably today than they were 30 to 35 years ago. Interest rates being 3% vs 12% makes a huge huge difference. I don't believe it's impossible for the younger generation either. To purchase a $1M house with 20% down only requires an income of about $160K. That's $80K each for a working couple. Relatively low income for the Bay Area.

[KB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut So, with all of these Californians leaving for greener pastures, why aren't home prices in California going down? I realize interest rates are historically low, but still.... I have to think the great exodus from California is a fig newton of somebody's imagination.

Houses in my town in CA are selling at more than the asking price, currently. And selling quickly. The inventory is low right now because houses sell fast. I keep track in my neighborhood, and two house of the same floor plan that I have sold recently at about 2 or 3% over asking price. While that isn't a large percentage on a 550K house, it is a new trend.

With people able to work from home more readily now, they are able to move to areas where they couldn't live before, due to their jobs.