Start of the Real Estate slump?

[Scrapr]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chassis Please define "real estate". Vacant land in the boonies on an unpaved road without water/sewer/electric, 2+ hours from a regional airport? Not much going on. Retail space in traditional strip mall/big box areas? Tough times. Multi-story office space in suburban or urban areas? Tough times. Multi-million dollar residential property with unusual features? Not too much happening. Industrial/warehouse projects? Doing pretty well. Most other residential? Doing pretty well. Strictly in response to the title of the thread: no.

I define it in the form that most readers here have....a SFH in a middle class neighborhood. The 2 housing markets I'm in are on fire. I bought then sold. The home I bought was pending in about 36 hours. The home I'm selling in Bend had 3 offers to buy before anyone saw it (just pretty pictures)

But that is not the point of the post. Covid has put a lot of jobs on the bench. There has been talk of renters not being able to pay rent after the stimulus money runs out. And if your job is furloughed & no money comes in then maybe you sell your home.

I just have not seen a "short sale" on a listing in years & years. For someone to be underwater on a home after 4 years is shocking to me. Maybe this next stimulus money pushes the can down the road a bit & home owners can stay in their home. If jobs don't come back then the housing market will suffer

[street]

Why the boom in home sales Low interest, cheap money must be a part of the reason?

[Koolau]

HI population has been decreasing slightly for a few years now. Even in light of that and with Covid rearing its ugly 2020 rear, prices seem to have stabilized. Inventory is moving more slowly however which often portends retreating prices. I guess we'll see. It doesn't really affect us much. Property taxes just might stabilize or maybe even drop some day - Naaaaahhhh! But they are already quite low, considering. No desire to sell, so we'll just live our lives and wait it out. YMMV

[RenoJay]

I think locational context would be valuable from these posts. From what I read, real estate is once again local. Big cities seem to be losing residents (downward price pressure) while certain suburbs and lower tax states are gaining those same folks, especially now that many have discovered working from home. So it doesn’t shock me that one person is seeing short sales while another is seeing homes fly off the shelf.

[copyright1997reloaded]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Souschef With more people working from home, there is no incentive to stay in the Big Apple

Big exodus from NYC, perhaps even bigger than after 9/11. [After 9/11, there were plenty of people buying quite far from NYC, but mostly along train corridors and also limited due to the fact that their jobs required them to be in the city. I know this because I lived upstate but was working in NYC. This time around, technology has improved enough to (perhaps) make this a more permanent thing.)

Side note: I started "working from home" in the mid 90's, now it is trendy.

[freedomatlast]

Homes around here are selling quickly. Prices are definitely up substantially from a year ago. Great time to sell without a realtor and pocket the savings. Ours sold with a posting on Zillow in a day and a half.

[ShokWaveRider]

No slump in NE. FLA.

[JRon]

In South Dakota the news just reported that there are about 1/2 the homes on the market compared to a year ago, but more sales than a year ago so home selling has been hot, but should slow now due to low inventory.

[jkern]

Hot RE market here in the East Bay (SF).

[LRDave]

I agree with a couple of the sentiments in this thread regarding all the "We Buy Houses" signs and solicitations everywhere, in that it feels a little 2007ish.

[Markola]

One couple we know are a realtor and an appraiser in the Twin Cities of MN and they said they’ve never been so busy. Also, any plot of land within a quarter mile of the Mississippi River has a luxury rental apartment building going up, as does every light rail and express bus stop. All this during record low interest rates, enormous unemployment for many and working-and-schooling -from-home for many others. I wouldn’t want to try to predict anything or bet my dollars in that market.

[Spanky]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliKid The market is still on fire in inland NorCal. I assume not so much down in 'Frisco though.

So are the houses.

[JoeWras]

Still hot in NC. Our neighborhood median has gone from 250K to 350K in 5 years.

Slight cracks are showing, however. Seeing more listings make it a day or two. For a while, listings were sucked up before they even hit market, or they were bid out in hours.

We are seeing a lot of layoffs in the area lately. Seems like a lot of the big companies held on for a while, and now are letting go. Let's see if this has an effect.

[Spanky]

The housing market is still hot because of the low mortgage rates.

[skipro33]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scrapr I'm still getting alerts from Redfin on potential home after I had it turned on for my purchase/sell recently. One popped up on my purchase street with a note I have not seen for a very long time. Short Sale. Looks like they have been in 4.5 years. Listing plus Realtor fee about equals what they bought for. They will pull a little equity out but it won't be much. Depending I guess on the repair addendum edit: Since it's a short sale they will be pulling zero equity out.

A short sale in real estate is when a financially distressed homeowner sells their property for less than the amount due on the mortgage. The buyer of the property is a third party (not the bank), and all proceeds from the sale go to the lender. The lender either forgives the difference or gets a deficiency judgment against the borrower requiring them to pay the lender all or part of the difference between the sale price and the original value of the mortgage. In some states, this difference must legally be forgiven in a short sale.

[Scrapr]

Quote:

Originally Posted by skipro33 A short sale in real estate is when a financially distressed homeowner sells their property for less than the amount due on the mortgage. The buyer of the property is a third party (not the bank), and all proceeds from the sale go to the lender. The lender either forgives the difference or gets a deficiency judgment against the borrower requiring them to pay the lender all or part of the difference between the sale price and the original value of the mortgage. In some states, this difference must legally be forgiven in a short sale.

Yeah, i clarified in a later post. Buyer won't be pulling out any cash. So must have been a 100% loan (or close) roll the closing costs into the loan, miss some payments. Tadaa...short sale


This article shows 30 & 90 day late payments. Since there are foreclosure restrictions in place not many are happening. Year over year 90 day lates are up 1.9 million

https://www.blackknightinc.com/black...mortgage-data/

I talked with a developer/builder on Friday & he was thinking about not buying any more property. He's a small guy so no economy of scale. His company broke even in 2019. And I think he had 7 million in land loans out. Developers frequently use aggressive accounting so I take that comment with a grain of salt. He was thinking the risk reward was out of balance. Then I see the short sale

I'm not spooked yet....but

[Poopycat]

Initially, I was shocked by the number of “our location is hot” and “it’s a seller’s market” comments. How could that be in a pandemic with so many unemployed or struggling?

Then I remembered that I was an economics major all those years ago, and that price is a function of supply and demand. Demand may not have changed much, or may have even dropped since many do t want to move during a pandemic. But supply has also dropped for the same reason. I moved because I had to relocate for a job, but I think many people are putting off selling until we are in more stable times.

Anyway, selfishly, I’m hoping that the market in the areas I’m interested in drop off a cliff in 2022 when I’m ready to buy! I think they may, as we see people potentially have to sell their second home/vacation home, or possibly face foreclosure on a primary residence. I don’t want people to lose their primary homes, but I do t see how it can be avoided if the economy doesn’t go back to pre-COVID levels.

[Teacher Terry]

Northern Nevada is definitely not in a slump either.

[JoeWras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poopycat Then I remembered that I was an economics major all those years ago, and that price is a function of supply and demand. Demand may not have changed much, or may have even dropped since many do t want to move during a pandemic. But supply has also dropped for the same reason.

Yep, and on top of that, there's the liquidity element which is necessary for large purchases. Consider loan money to be a necessary third party. That third party has plenty of supply at low prices.

[skipro33]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scrapr Yeah, i clarified in a later post. Buyer won't be pulling out any cash. So must have been a 100% loan (or close) roll the closing costs into the loan, miss some payments. Tadaa...short sale I'm not spooked yet....but

A home across the road from mine (we are on 5 acre minimum and his backs up to open wild land of 100's of acres) was on a short sale. The realtor told me it could take years to sell. It sold in less than 6 months. The owners made zero payments and severely damaged the place as well as did zero upkeep. The pool was allowed to drain and it lifted and cracked for example. It had been sold to those owners for around $600,000 and the short sale sold for $425,000. I was darn near tempted myself to buy it, fix it up and flip it. I'm quite good with construction, have all the tools and skill. (I'm just not fast. Ha!) I'm glad I didn't. Talking to other contractors lately, no one can get materials. Another neighbor is getting a new concrete patio and cover added along with all sorts of grading, a small shop built, etc. The project is stalled on the concrete; no one can deliver concrete sooner than 3 weeks out. Until the pour, the job is on hold. Contractors are all busy as well. I tried to hire a plumber to relocate a propane gas line for a fire pit out back in order to overhaul some landscaping. Simply can not find anyone who will do this small job. I trenched the old line, trenched the new line. All I need is someone to swing the old line to the new line or cut-n-splice the old line to a new line.
This is in California. So many dotcom businesses are fleeing the SF area for the more rural and suburban areas that it's like a land rush. Huge home equities from Bay Area homes coming in to buy relatively cheaper places that are much larger and can accommodate home offices as well as enough room to make sheltering in place more like a remote resort than the tiny zero setback prison cells Bay Area homes are known for.