View Poll Results: Are you staying the course so far (and in the foreseeable future)/
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I am maintaining or increasing my equity holdings
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90.48% |
I am slowly/rapidly decreasing my equity holdings moving to cash or other safer holdings
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9.52% |
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07-22-2008, 05:51 PM
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#61
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Retired/er layed off Jan 1993. Started investing 1966. Should be used to 'stay the course.'
But then I've been thru many a 4th quarter of Saint's football.
As for retirement - full auto - for the serious money. Lifestrategy moderate for over ten years and now Target 2015.
But hormones being what they - can't resist peeking, putzing with some side money, even though the main event Vanguard computers just rebalance away and don't get excited.
Bring on football season! I hear the Pats as usual have a good football team. As if my balanced index really cares.
If it gets too wooky - I'll start measuring my SEC yield of Target 2015 to the second deicmal place and mumble Pssst - Wellesley shoulda bought pssst - Wellesley!
Geaux Saint's again this season(hope springs eternal) - tough it thru on my 3.2X% SEC yield if I must, stay the course.
heh heh heh -
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07-23-2008, 12:31 AM
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#62
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: North of Montana
Posts: 2,769
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Uncle....... you forgot the "psstt...."
__________________
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
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07-23-2008, 07:33 AM
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#63
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toofrugalformycat
Staying the course at 60/40 equities/fixed, waiting until 5% out to do anything. Last bear market I procrastinated until about 6.5% out (white knuckles), may do that again because I'm a chicken at times.
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I had my triggers set at 10%, but with recent volatility, I bumped IGR, PCRIX, and VWO to 15%. Was trading to often...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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07-23-2008, 06:27 PM
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#64
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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Boy, nice day for the portfolio even though the dow was only up 30 points. EMC, STON, MO, GE, T, and CZN all had a nice day. EMC was up almost 14%. Too bad I'm still in the red with it.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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07-23-2008, 07:33 PM
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#65
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,472
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I am ecstatic at this upturn!! I have great hopes.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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07-23-2008, 09:40 PM
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#66
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
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We spent, what, a week in bear territory? This upturn seems too soon. I am reticent, music man.
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07-23-2008, 11:20 PM
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#67
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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I find it hard to guess the direction of the market. I will say though, that bear markets usually don't start when stocks have gone nowhere for 10 years- which is exactly what the S&P had done until this last little bounce.
But individual stocks are another matter. Whatever happens in the next few months, GE for example will be much higher a few years down the road than it is now, and an holder will have gotten healthy and growing dividends in the meantime.
I think their hook-up with Abu Dhabi Sovereign Fund points the way to their future. Immelt is a visionary, light bulbs and washer/dryers are a thing of GE's past. They are being spun off rather than sold because he doesn't want to spend any more management time messing with it, and I think they were not getting very good bids.
Abu Dhabi and GE Capital will each invest $4 billion and leverage it up to $40B to create new infrastructure investments in Abu Dhabi. I expect GE Capital's more consumer directed businesses will be sold, spun off or run off. Additionally, GE's share price will find support because Abu-Dhabi has vowed to be one of its 10 largest shareholders, buying in the market, not a private equity deal or capital injection.
It is likely that this train will not be sitting around for long.
It's my largest position.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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07-24-2008, 06:22 AM
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#68
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
I find it hard to guess the direction of the market. I will say though, that bear markets usually don't start when stocks have gone nowhere for 10 years- which is exactly what the S&P had done until this last little bounce.
But individual stocks are another matter. Whatever happens in the next few months, GE for example will be much higher a few years down the road than it is now, and an holder will have gotten healthy and growing dividends in the meantime.
I think their hook-up with Abu Dhabi Sovereign Fund points the way to their future. Immelt is a visionary, light bulbs and washer/dryers are a thing of GE's past. They are being spun off rather than sold because he doesn't want to spend any more management time messing with it, and I think they were not getting very good bids.
Abu Dhabi and GE Capital will each invest $4 billion and leverage it up to $40B to create new infrastructure investments in Abu Dhabi. I expect GE Capital's more consumer directed businesses will be sold, spun off or run off. Additionally, GE's share price will find support because Abu-Dhabi has vowed to be one of its 10 largest shareholders, buying in the market, not a private equity deal or capital injection.
It is likely that this train will not be sitting around for long.
It's my largest position.
Ha
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It's close to my largest individual stock position. You got me licking my lips to buy a little more.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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07-24-2008, 07:27 AM
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#69
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Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 11,447
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
I find it hard to guess the direction of the market. I will say though, that bear markets usually don't start when stocks have gone nowhere for 10 years- which is exactly what the S&P had done until this last little bounce.
But individual stocks are another matter. Whatever happens in the next few months, GE for example will be much higher a few years down the road than it is now, and an holder will have gotten healthy and growing dividends in the meantime.
I think their hook-up with Abu Dhabi Sovereign Fund points the way to their future. Immelt is a visionary, light bulbs and washer/dryers are a thing of GE's past. They are being spun off rather than sold because he doesn't want to spend any more management time messing with it, and I think they were not getting very good bids.
Abu Dhabi and GE Capital will each invest $4 billion and leverage it up to $40B to create new infrastructure investments in Abu Dhabi. I expect GE Capital's more consumer directed businesses will be sold, spun off or run off. Additionally, GE's share price will find support because Abu-Dhabi has vowed to be one of its 10 largest shareholders, buying in the market, not a private equity deal or capital injection.
It is likely that this train will not be sitting around for long.
It's my largest position.
Ha
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I have some money on the sidelines that I'll be spending today .
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07-24-2008, 08:07 AM
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#70
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
bear markets usually don't start when stocks have gone nowhere for 10 years- which is exactly what the S&P had done until this last little bounce.
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Yeah but do you really want to track from a level derived from overpriced non-companies and 80 PE's from irrational exuberance? If you take a chart of the last 15 years and forget about that 99/00 spike it looks like stocks are just about on the curve to where they should be. Maybe even a little bit overpriced still.
Bargains relative to stupid prices may not quite be the same as bargains relative to normal prices...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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07-24-2008, 09:40 AM
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#71
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moemg
I have some money on the sidelines that I'll be spending today .
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I wish I could always be this persuasive.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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07-24-2008, 09:45 AM
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#72
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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That line is pretty arbitrary, based on what you decide to ignore. I'd say that either of these lines could also be justified:
__________________
Al
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07-24-2008, 10:01 AM
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#73
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
That line is pretty arbitrary, based on what you decide to ignore. I'd say that either of these lines could also be justified:
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I think this would be a lot easier to analyze on a logarithmic scale.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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07-24-2008, 10:06 AM
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#74
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
That line is pretty arbitrary, based on what you decide to ignore. I'd say that either of these lines could also be justified:
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Of course.
You could argue that the real story is following the long term trend for valuations that existed prior to 1990, as in your first chart. BTW, that was the only actual piece of identifiable financial message in the Ho$ux/JWR dynamic duo's routine...that stocks were expensive compared to long historic valuations and therefore shouldnt be owned. That would have had you out of stocks from about 1994 on. Although they backtracked around 2006 to say that prices were kinda okay in 2002-2003.
Or that "something changed in the modern era" and that the trend established just prior to the bubble reflects modern valuations based on global operations, the internet, productivity improvements, and/or some other change.
I think theres some rationale to that latter, but since market inefficiencies rarely run year after year after year, and finding a relatively clean trend that existed for 8 years before the bubble and for 7 years after, split the highs and lows.
Answer me three questions: do you think stocks were grossly overvalued in 98-00? Do you think stocks were reasonably cheap in 02/03? Do you think they were a little overpriced in 07?
My answer to all three of those is 'yes', which is born out by the chart I put up.
But I guess the real question is "do we mark todays relative price and valuations against the top of a bubble market, particularly when it might be tough to get everyone to agree on what the right measure of valuations are?"
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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07-24-2008, 10:16 AM
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#75
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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I think in recent years there has been a tendency for sectors to go through their own little bull and bear markets. So overall market metrics may not be too helpful.
Even the 2000-2002 bear did not involve all sectors. Look at MO and UST for examples. And the recent and perhaps ongoing financial bear certainly missed the E&P and Oil service sectors, while clobbering the refiners.
Horses for courses- just because they all can't run under today's conditions doesn't mean that some won't.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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07-24-2008, 10:31 AM
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#76
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
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I wish you luck with your GE position.
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07-24-2008, 11:38 AM
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#77
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 2,006
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Once again, jinxed. I wouldn't consider it an upturn until we have a month in the plus column.
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07-24-2008, 12:34 PM
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#78
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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Quote:
Originally Posted by statsman
Once again, jinxed. I wouldn't consider it an upturn until we have a month in the plus column.
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Yup, easy come.....easy go.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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07-24-2008, 12:41 PM
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#79
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Hey, the days not over yet.
Nothing is over until WE decide it is!!!
Was is over when the germans bombed pearl harbor?!?
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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07-24-2008, 12:54 PM
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#80
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
Hey, the days not over yet.
Nothing is over until WE decide it is!!!
Was is over when the germans bombed pearl harbor?!?
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Step up to the plate and buy!
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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