Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: Dow's approximate bottom will be:
6800+ ( we are at it now, up from here!) 18 11.11%
6500 20 12.35%
6250 10 6.17%
6000 29 17.90%
Below 6000 (Honey, sell silver on ebay! You like Fancy Feast?) 85 52.47%
Voters: 162. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-02-2009, 12:23 PM   #21
Gone but not forgotten
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 11,447
I am going to say 6100 and please end this torture . I am about ready to give up & get out .
Moemg is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-02-2009, 12:28 PM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,323
Isn't Bob Brinker saying 500 for the S&P and 5,000 for the Dow is a real possibility? (sigh) Do I have the backbone to hang in there is the question now?
__________________
Please consider adopting a rescue animal. So very many need a furr-ever home and someone to love them! And if we all spay/neuter our pets there won't be an overpopulation to put to death.
Orchidflower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 12:29 PM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
This website: DJIA P/E RATIO, DJIA EARNINGS AND DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE FAIR VALUE opines $657 in Dow earnings in 2009. Assuming a P/E of 10, that gives us 6570.

SWAG, for sure...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 12:31 PM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 13,149
That was an interesting read HFWR, thanks!
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 12:32 PM   #25
Full time employment: Posting here.
hankster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 649
Bottom: Dow 5,760
__________________
"There is no dignity quite so impressive, and no independence quite so important, as living within your means." Calvin Coolidge
hankster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 12:36 PM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,293
Since I don't have to touch my equities for another 5 years, I'm stayin'. Right now I'm going all out and putting cheese on my burger. I know how to live baby!

In five years......I might have to eat my burger plain...
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 12:41 PM   #27
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orchidflower View Post
Isn't Bob Brinker saying 500 for the S&P and 5,000 for the Dow is a real possibility? (sigh) Do I have the backbone to hang in there is the question now?
Yeah, it's tough. The thing is, things suck and the market sees no rational reason to believe a resolution is coming any time soon. As a result, we have massive uncertainty. Now maybe most market participants don't think we're starting the 1930s all over again, but in the absence of anything that gives them a good sense of a "limit" to how bad things will get, uncertainty leads them to tend toward assuming the worst case (i.e. 1930s all over again, or maybe another Japan).

The markets don't seem convinced that governments can stem the tide any time soon. But again, if something is eventually announced that the market has some faith in -- hopefully sooner and not later -- that could trigger a massive rally fueled by short-covering among other things. And *maybe* then, and only then, will the true "bottom" be in place. And even that's no sure thing, because there would not no assurances that the measures would ultimately work.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 12:42 PM   #28
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Coach's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Colorado, USA
Posts: 1,127
I'll take 6250.

Coach
Coach is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 12:43 PM   #29
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,840
This poll is pretty much an indication the bottom is in for now! Can I change my timeframe?
__________________
But then what do I really know?

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 12:49 PM   #30
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
This poll is pretty much an indication the bottom is in for now! Can I change my timeframe?
This time is *is* different in some ways. Not in all ways, but in some.

Usually, diversification among equity classes works to reduce volatility. This time it's done almost bupkis as all equity classes have had positive correlations approaching unity since the market top.

Usually when there is overwhelming bearishness, a contrarian bullish reversal is just around the corner. Rampant bearishness hasn't turned anything.

None of the usual market axioms have held this time around. Plus, we have more negative uncertainty than most participants in this market have EVER seen during their investing years. All bets are off, IMO.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 01:04 PM   #31
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 162
Through careful prognostication of the DOW compnonents, most of which have been beaten almost to zero for their own individual behavior, I have relegated the furthur declaind of the bad and the raising of the three goods, I predict the bottom will occur on August 28, 2009 where it will hold -0 to +250 points until November 11 when election results will indicate the unfavorable consensus of failure for FED intervention. 5858 is the number.

I will also announce today that I am suspending all charitable donations and ask that others do the same. Many have enabled me to become wealthy and I was willing to share, but the rule changes declaring my deductions to be eliminated are untenable and clearly class warfare. If the governments intends to take care of everyone with some of my money, I cannot not stop them alone. But I can entrench in my own protectionism and stop supporting those I have helped in the past. I will not expand my business and I will give no more raises. Eventually, I will divest my business connections and become an isolationist. By positioning my assests in a protectionist fashion in non-taxable enitities I will voice my solitary view of silent non-support.
cashbalancetrouble is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 01:11 PM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
6549. Eternal optimist here.

And does "my daughter's college fund" count as a charity? As you may have guessed, the current value has been somewhat impaired by the recent softness in the market.
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 01:12 PM   #33
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
- With no 'psychological purge': 5,700 by 9/2 - and that won't be the bottom.
- With a major event leading to capitulation prior to 9/2: 5,200
No fair! One guess per person. If REWahoo wins, I'd only donate 1/2 the prize since he had two chances.
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 01:13 PM   #34
Moderator Emeritus
laurence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO View Post
6549. Eternal optimist here.

And does "my daughter's college fund" count as a charity? As you may have guessed, the current value has been somewhat impaired by the recent softness in the market.
Hmmm....maybe if it's a real fund and not your checking account!

I now see I should have included lower numbers. I guess a 15% drop from Friday over the next six months isn't much when we've dropped 3% in one day.
laurence is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 01:16 PM   #35
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Tadpole's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,427
666(6)
Tadpole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 01:21 PM   #36
Moderator Emeritus
laurence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
OMG, well that didn't take long, just blew past my first selection, 6780 now and dropping...what's the sound of flesh and bone hitting concrete at high speeds? I think I just heard a sickening thud.
laurence is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 01:26 PM   #37
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,293
Quote:
Originally Posted by laurence View Post
OMG, well that didn't take long, just blew past my first selection, 6780 now and dropping...what's the sound of flesh and bone hitting concrete at high speeds? I think I just heard a sickening thud.
...........
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 01:27 PM   #38
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Newport Beach
Posts: 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post

Usually when there is overwhelming bearishness, a contrarian bullish reversal is just around the corner. Rampant bearishness hasn't turned anything.

None of the usual market axioms have held this time around. Plus, we have more negative uncertainty than most participants in this market have EVER seen during their investing years. All bets are off, IMO.
This is the part that pains me the most. It has been so obvious to everyone that the markets would (and still will) continue to decline, but I stupidly thought all the concerns would already be reflected in share prices.
newporttony is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 01:29 PM   #39
Moderator Emeritus
CuppaJoe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,873
When these come back into fashion, we will be in deep doo-doo.

Vintage Bellbottom Pants, bell bottoms at RustyZipper.Com Vintage Clothing
CuppaJoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 01:31 PM   #40
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
Quote:
Originally Posted by laurence View Post
Hmmm....maybe if it's a real fund and not your checking account!
No it is a real fund, not just my checking account. The fund is called "Vanguard STAR Fund"!
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Step-Grandparenthood Sheryl Life after FIRE 16 01-02-2007 04:51 PM
Taking first step to RE 5yearstogo Hi, I am... 4 03-17-2006 06:12 PM
Tax Reform - a 'baby step'? ERD50 FIRE and Money 4 02-13-2006 03:25 PM
One step closer Jeremy Ison Young Dreamers 7 11-04-2004 02:54 AM
A small step, but... brewer12345 Young Dreamers 7 09-01-2004 06:08 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:36 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.