Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: Dow's approximate bottom will be:
6800+ ( we are at it now, up from here!) 18 11.11%
6500 20 12.35%
6250 10 6.17%
6000 29 17.90%
Below 6000 (Honey, sell silver on ebay! You like Fancy Feast?) 85 52.47%
Voters: 162. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-02-2009, 04:30 PM   #61
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Gotadimple's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,599
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
It's actually 30, but your point is still valid.
Oops . . . thanks.
__________________
Only got A dimple, would have preferred 2!
Gotadimple is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-02-2009, 04:59 PM   #62
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ls99's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve O View Post
What happens when the terrorists decide to test the new administration
They will talk them to death of course.
__________________
There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.
ls99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 05:19 PM   #63
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Free To Canoe's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Cooksburg,PA
Posts: 1,873
Please make it stop!

5757.

Free
Free To Canoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 05:21 PM   #64
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
It's actually 30, but your point is still valid.
Twenty of them went broke...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 05:50 PM   #65
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,148
Quote:
Originally Posted by cashbalancetrouble View Post
I will also announce today that I am suspending all charitable donations and ask that others do the same. Many have enabled me to become wealthy and I was willing to share, but the rule changes declaring my deductions to be eliminated are untenable and clearly class warfare. If the governments intends to take care of everyone with some of my money, I cannot not stop them alone. But I can entrench in my own protectionism and stop supporting those I have helped in the past. I will not expand my business and I will give no more raises. Eventually, I will divest my business connections and become an isolationist. By positioning my assests in a protectionist fashion in non-taxable enitities I will voice my solitary view of silent non-support.
I would agree that it's terribly misguided, but I thought it was only a proposal, what is the current status or timeline?
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 06:11 PM   #66
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,764
69, dudes!
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 07:06 PM   #67
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
Over the next 6 months, I say around 5,000. But I won't be surprised to see 3,500 before all said and done.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 07:22 PM   #68
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
73ss454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,693
With all the smart folks on this forum I think of all the millions spent on education. Then I think that when it comes to the markets nobody knows nuttin!
73ss454 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 07:26 PM   #69
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ls99's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by 73ss454 View Post
With all the smart folks on this forum I think of all the millions spent on education. Then I think that when it comes to the markets nobody knows nuttin!
Yeah but it does give the illusion of control while having the ability to analyze the market as it crashes.

I like uncle' method. heh heh.
__________________
There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.
ls99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2009, 09:36 PM   #70
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,525
My number is 5317 - no reason why. Every day I think that it can't go lower and then it does. Most of the time, I am just numb to it, but every once in a while, I start to feel panicky, and wonder if I have ruined our retirement. I feel that it is too late to do anything now and I just need to let it ride. I just hope that it comes back within the next year or two and then I will become much more conservative. My DH is fast approaching retirement!
Dreamer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2009, 05:17 AM   #71
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,323
Trombone Al must have read the same article I did: 6763 is my new guess (and I stole it from the supposed financial experts).
__________________
Please consider adopting a rescue animal. So very many need a furr-ever home and someone to love them! And if we all spay/neuter our pets there won't be an overpopulation to put to death.
Orchidflower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2009, 05:48 AM   #72
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 717
I don't care what the number is, but rather when. - April 23, 2009. Unfortunately, it will then go sideways for months if not years. Fortunately, that will give everyone the opportunity to get in. Unfortunately, most of the money is already in.
__________________
Random Reinforcement is Highly Addictive.
riskadverse is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2009, 07:26 AM   #73
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bikerdude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
Quote:
Originally Posted by riskadverse View Post
Fortunately, that will give everyone the opportunity to get in. Unfortunately, most of the money is already in.
With more than 3 trillion sitting in MM accounts....I don't think so.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/bu...d/11money.html
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
Bikerdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2009, 07:28 AM   #74
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
Quote:
Originally Posted by riskadverse View Post
I don't care what the number is, but rather when. - April 23, 2009. Unfortunately, it will then go sideways for months if not years. Fortunately, that will give everyone the opportunity to get in. Unfortunately, most of the money is already in.
There's a hell of a lot of money sitting it out waiting for governments and central banks to finally figure out what they're doing and how they're going to contain the damage. And there are also a LOT of people short in this market.

When said governments and central banks come up with something the market has some faith in, IMO, we'll see a violent rally -- but not before.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2009, 07:47 AM   #75
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Leonidas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
...we'll see a violent rally...
There a boatload of money on the sidelines. No, make that a navy full of boatloads of money. I've heard $2 Trillion and more thrown around as the number, although I'm not sure how one determines what money is on the sideline and what money is just outside the market.

I keep going back to the technicians way of looking at things - why not, nothing else makes sense and I don't know anything about reading the entrails of chickens - to try and get some tiny bit of clarity here. My latest voodoo technical interest is Fibonacci retracement.

Note that I'm not espousing the theory, just tossing it out for discussion.

Anyway, current discussions and prognostications I follow elsewhere have discussed the potential for a Fibonacci retracement upward from 700-ish on the S&P, or, if it breaks that level going down, then from around 650. We're talking a quick, violent, and pretty massive upside - not back to where we were but close - 30% being the minimum. But it's generally seen as something that won't stick around for long.

And that last little bit is the one that has me wondering if this thing we're in right now might not have a bigger downside. Something like 1929 - 32 in which the market goes down about 50% (sound familiar?), then has a rally in which significant retracement takes place, followed by several years of a continual slide that goes past the previous low. Far enough past the previous low to make one fondly recall the days when we were down by only 50%.

I can deal with where we're at now. Don't like it - but I can deal. And I can handle a lengthy "L" shape on the recovery with an eventual, if very gradual, clawback upward. Like everyone else I've lost ground, years worth of it, but I'm still okay here and even a little lower. But the prospect of something like 1930-1936-ish is disturbing. '29 was bad, but the stuff that came later was worse.
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
Leonidas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2009, 08:47 AM   #76
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,467
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
When said governments and central banks come up with something the market has some faith in, IMO, we'll see a violent rally -- but not before.
Love to hear your optimism! I really hope you are right about that violent rally.

I have no idea of what to expect, but naturally my fears are that the market will not see 10,000 again for years.

At least I won't be disappointed.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.

Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2009, 08:51 AM   #77
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
Love to hear your optimism! I really hope you are right.

I have no idea of what to expect, but naturally my fears are that the market will not see 10,000 again for years.

At least I won't be disappointed.
I'm pretty sure that if the market hears a plan it thinks will eliminate the uncertainty about the banking and housing messes, a big rally is inevitable. of course, from these levels a big rally still leaves us way underwater. Even a 30-40% pop from here on the resolution of some uncertainty leaves us at around 9000 on the Dow and maybe 900 on the S&P. That might be the time I permanently reduce my allocation to stocks. In retrospect, I should have done it in early January when we were back into the 9000s.

As for Dow 10,000 -- I suspect your right. Maybe it's not relevant, but each time the Dow poked through and gained an extra digit -- whether hitting 100, 1000 or 10,000 -- it didn't hold for long and a massive bear market came and the Dow didn't recover that level for many years.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2009, 09:33 AM   #78
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,518
Quote:
I have no idea of what to expect, but naturally my fears are that the market will not see 10,000 again for years.
Quote:
As for Dow 10,000 -- I suspect your right. Maybe it's not relevant, but each time the Dow poked through and gained an extra digit -- whether hitting 100, 1000 or 10,000 -- it didn't hold for long and a massive bear market came and the Dow didn't recover that level for many years.
Lets see. If the markets overshoot on the downside as they did on the upside, and the folks at GMO are reasonably close with their valuations, then DOW “fair value” today is around 8200. (actually, the project total US large cap at that meager rate)

If it reaches fair value plus inflation of 3%, then it hits 10k in 7 years. Around 6 ˝% CGR

If it reaches fair value plus inflation plus real growth of 2%, then in 7 years it is at 11.5k. That’s about 8% CGR from today.

The GMO projections for “high quality” which has a large DOW component is much more optimistic.

W2R and ziggy, I find your posts thoughtful and well reasoned - both enjoyable and very helpful. Nonetheless, I'm siding with growth and opportunity - and that a few large, well run US blue chip businesses are going to continue to get hits and score runs when everyone else is striking out.
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2009, 11:30 AM   #79
Full time employment: Posting here.
Frugality_of_Apathy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 622
Well we're down to 6767 so the 6800+ guys are going to have to turn in their crystal balls.

I'm going to toss in 5324 as my guess. I stopped contributing when they announced the second "stimulus bill" as it's more akin to stabbing someone to motivate them to run because it worked so well when you gave them a pinprick earlier.
Frugality_of_Apathy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2009, 11:40 AM   #80
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 717
[quote=Bikerdude;790807]With more than 3 trillion sitting in MM accounts....I don't think so.


sideline money:
Capital Vandalism: Money on the sidelines?
__________________
Random Reinforcement is Highly Addictive.
riskadverse is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Step-Grandparenthood Sheryl Life after FIRE 16 01-02-2007 04:51 PM
Taking first step to RE 5yearstogo Hi, I am... 4 03-17-2006 06:12 PM
Tax Reform - a 'baby step'? ERD50 FIRE and Money 4 02-13-2006 03:25 PM
One step closer Jeremy Ison Young Dreamers 7 11-04-2004 02:54 AM
A small step, but... brewer12345 Young Dreamers 7 09-01-2004 06:08 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:24 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.