Step up and call the bottom!

[Running_Man]

Running Man,

I WILL ask as your posts always seem so lucid. Personally, my fear for after Sept. - Dec. is inflation.

The following is my fears of what may occur, hopefully I am wrong on this.

At some point shortly the market will cease going down, as most of the weak hands have been shaken out.

As the promises to fix the problem by the present administration will overshadow concerns of the potential ineffectiveness. However by fall, the need to sell US treasury notes for the actual promises given will be showing up as a massive global strain while at the same time state governments will be reviewing their upcoming state budgets and those will be bleeding red ink, causing a crisis in municipal and government bonds.

At this point faith in the recovery will evaporate and with it the stock market prices as they collapse in the fourth quarter to a new bear market low. The ability of spending a few trillion dollars will come as a process that was able to defer but not prevent the implosion of 50 trillion plus in imploding debt assets. However, for a time I think we will be better...

 

[al_bundy]

there is a reason why we don't do anything about our trade imbalances. i bet later this year some people with a lot of cash will be getting calls to buy US Treasuries or else

 

[TromboneAl]

This isn't fun anymore.

 

[ls99]

Can't offer any helpful financial advice, most here are walking on the boulevard of broken dreams. So in that spirit perhaps the Diana Krall Trio can transport you to a more pleasant plane for a while...

Recommend earphones, laptops etc don't give the music justice.

YouTube - Diana Krall Trio - Boulevard of broken dreams (live)

 

[HFWR]

Small favors...

Wow, no Friday afternoon swoon. Bottom, so far, is 6531.

Wondering how Elvis Costello made such a catch as Diana Krall. Lucky bahstud...

 

[ziggy29]

Wondering how Elvis Costello made such a catch as Diana Krall. Lucky bahstud...

Fame and money couldn't have anything to do with it, could it? Nah.

You don't see women like her connecting with middle class nobodies like yours truly...

 

[RonBoyd]

You don't see women like her connecting with middle class nobodies like yours truly...

This has already been explained:

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/male-smarts-lets-hear-from-the-ladies-42845.html

 

[free4now]

Based simply on the fact that every time I think we've hit bottom it goes lower, my prediction is 5252.

 

[Hal3]

Let's punish the unfortunate!

I will also announce today that I am suspending all charitable donations and ask that others do the same.

I am increasing my donations.

If you deduct it it's not quite as much of a "donation" is it?

Don't forget the NRA.

https://membership.nrahq.org/forms/donate.asp?CampaignID=nranews

That has never been deductible anyway.

 

[NotReady4Purple]

Call the Bottom?

You hoo! Bottom? Where are you? Time to come home.

 

[Hal3]

No joking matter.

When does WWIII start? Surely the market will improve after we go 3-for-3, right?

This will be the first World War where the US isn't the only combatant with nuclear weapons.

Maybe the solution to global warming will be nuclear winter.

I do believe that "SOMETHING" has to give. There will be some sort of tide shift. I would rather see a global plague than a global nuclear conflict though.

Or maybe everyone will simultaneously come to their senses.

Bob Marley will descend from Heaven on a flaming chariot!

Stop all this fussin' and fightin'.

Don't worry. Be happy!

 

[HFWR]

Bob Marley will descend from Heaven on a flaming chariot!

And [-]some good Jamaican weed[/-] manna will fall from heaven...

 

[Orchidflower]

Wall St. Journal article today 3/9/09 has most pros saying the Dow to 5,000 and maybe 6,000 with the S&P to 500. Time for the Rolaids.

 

[Lusitan]

Wall St. Journal article today 3/9/09 has most pros saying the Dow to 5,000 and maybe 6,000 with the S&P to 500. Time for the Rolaids.

This one's on me, Dawg.

 

[ziggy29]

Wall St. Journal article today 3/9/09 has most pros saying the Dow to 5,000 and maybe 6,000 with the S&P to 500. Time for the Rolaids.

I'd actually sleep easy if I thought it would end there.

 

[Bikerdude]

Wall St. Journal article today 3/9/09 has most pros saying the Dow to 5,000 and maybe 6,000 with the S&P to 500. Time for the Rolaids.

I called 5500.

 

[Running_Man]

Results, since the bottom is now in until September except for one a small chance of a retest maybe falling 118 points lower than the low so far of 6470 here are the results ordered from low to high, some took 2 guesses. I am in favor of price is right rules!

GPOND06470
Harley
69 6401
Want to Retire
3700 2770
Red Rover
4126 2344
Mr Invest
4672 1798
Dawg54
5100 1370
Ziggy
5200 1270
ReWahoo
5200 1270
Free 4 now
5252 1218
shotgunner
5274 1196
Dreamer
5317 1153
Frugality of Apathy
5324 1146
jug
5400 1070
BikerDude
5500 970
Clifp
5500 970
Steve O
5666 804
Donzo
5678 792
ReWahoo
5700 770
Hankster
5750 720
Michael B
5750 720
Free to Canoe
5757 713
Koolau
5942 528
Double Down
5972 498
Gotadimple
5987 483
Laurence
6000 470
al bundy
6000 470
Orchid Flower
6000 470
Just Me UC
6000 470
Moemg
6100 370
Coach
6250 220
CC DaCe
6250 220
Snodog
6284 186
The Fed
6286 184
Running Man
6352 118
CC DaCe
6500 -30
al bundy
6500 -30
Fuego
6549 -79
HFWR
6570 -100
Tad Pole
6666 -196
Orchid Flower
6763 -293
Trombone Al
6763.29- 293.29

 

[Koolau]

The following is my fears of what may occur, hopefully I am wrong on this.

At some point shortly the market will cease going down, as most of the weak hands have been shaken out.

As the promises to fix the problem by the present administration will overshadow concerns of the potential ineffectiveness. However by fall, the need to sell US treasury notes for the actual promises given will be showing up as a massive global strain while at the same time state governments will be reviewing their upcoming state budgets and those will be bleeding red ink, causing a crisis in municipal and government bonds.

At this point faith in the recovery will evaporate and with it the stock market prices as they collapse in the fourth quarter to a new bear market low. The ability of spending a few trillion dollars will come as a process that was able to defer but not prevent the implosion of 50 trillion plus in imploding debt assets. However, for a time I think we will be better...

Running_Man, thanks for your views. As usual you have given logic to my natural pessimism. Any ideas on potential strategies in the "calm before the storm". Cash in the mattress, gold, treasuries, "diversify", food, guns 'n ammo?

 

[RonBoyd]

Cash in the mattress, gold, treasuries, "diversify", food, guns 'n ammo?

Margaritas

 

[Running_Man]

Running_Man, thanks for your views. As usual you have given logic to my natural pessimism. Any ideas on potential strategies in the "calm before the storm". Cash in the mattress, gold, treasuries, "diversify", food, guns 'n ammo?

Heck I'm buying stocks for now

 

[clifp]

Running man what is the second number after our predictions? For example I am listed at 5500 970?

FWIW, I really hope I am wrong in this poll, and right in the one I started a few months ago. Dow 12,200 at the end of the year.

I hope today puts some fear into the bears. If you try and time the market, and somehow we string two or three days like today in the week you could miss a 20% move.

 

[ziggy29]

It means your guess is currently 970 below the current "bottom".

 

[Running_Man]

Running man what is the second number after our predictions? For example I am listed at 5500 970?

Number of points off of being right from actual low

 

[laurence]

Nice work, RunningMan!

So with today's market surge, we made back, what, a week of losses? Anyone think an memo from the Citigroup boss was a flimsy excuse? Seems like there are a lot of people looking for a reason to buy. I'd really like it if it traded sideways for 18 to 24 more months so I can buy some more at these prices.

 

[REWahoo]

I'd really like it if it traded sideways for 18 to 24 more months so I can buy some more at these prices.

Careful what you wish for you young pun...er, whippersnapper!