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View Poll Results: Dow's approximate bottom will be:
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6800+ ( we are at it now, up from here!)
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18 |
11.11% |
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6500
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20 |
12.35% |
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6250
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10 |
6.17% |
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6000
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29 |
17.90% |
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Below 6000 (Honey, sell silver on ebay! You like Fancy Feast?)
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85 |
52.47% |
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03-06-2009, 01:03 PM
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#101
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,844
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau
Running Man,
I WILL ask as your posts always seem so lucid. Personally, my fear for after Sept. - Dec. is inflation.
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The following is my fears of what may occur, hopefully I am wrong on this.
At some point shortly the market will cease going down, as most of the weak hands have been shaken out.
As the promises to fix the problem by the present administration will overshadow concerns of the potential ineffectiveness. However by fall, the need to sell US treasury notes for the actual promises given will be showing up as a massive global strain while at the same time state governments will be reviewing their upcoming state budgets and those will be bleeding red ink, causing a crisis in municipal and government bonds.
At this point faith in the recovery will evaporate and with it the stock market prices as they collapse in the fourth quarter to a new bear market low. The ability of spending a few trillion dollars will come as a process that was able to defer but not prevent the implosion of 50 trillion plus in imploding debt assets. However, for a time I think we will be better...
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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03-06-2009, 01:10 PM
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#102
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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there is a reason why we don't do anything about our trade imbalances. i bet later this year some people with a lot of cash will be getting calls to buy US Treasuries or else
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03-06-2009, 01:43 PM
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#103
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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This isn't fun anymore.
__________________
Al
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03-06-2009, 02:40 PM
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#104
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,506
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Can't offer any helpful financial advice, most here are walking on the boulevard of broken dreams. So in that spirit perhaps the Diana Krall Trio can transport you to a more pleasant plane for a while... 
Recommend earphones, laptops etc don't give the music justice.
__________________
There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.
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03-06-2009, 03:02 PM
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#105
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Small favors...
Wow, no Friday afternoon swoon. Bottom, so far, is 6531.
Wondering how Elvis Costello made such a catch as Diana Krall. Lucky bahstud...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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03-06-2009, 03:49 PM
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#106
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR
Wondering how Elvis Costello made such a catch as Diana Krall. Lucky bahstud...
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Fame and money couldn't have anything to do with it, could it? Nah.
You don't see women like her connecting with middle class nobodies like yours truly...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-06-2009, 06:23 PM
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#107
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,258
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
You don't see women like her connecting with middle class nobodies like yours truly...
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This has already been explained:
http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ies-42845.html
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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03-06-2009, 07:00 PM
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#108
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 1,228
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Based simply on the fact that every time I think we've hit bottom it goes lower, my prediction is 5252.
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Let's punish the unfortunate!
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03-07-2009, 02:32 AM
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#109
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 184
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Let's punish the unfortunate!
Quote:
Originally Posted by cashbalancetrouble
I will also announce today that I am suspending all charitable donations and ask that others do the same.
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I am increasing my donations.
If you deduct it it's not quite as much of a "donation" is it?
Don't forget the NRA.
https://membership.nrahq.org/forms/d...aignID=nranews
That has never been deductible anyway.
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03-07-2009, 09:01 AM
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#110
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Colorado
Posts: 131
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Call the Bottom?
You hoo! Bottom? Where are you? Time to come home.
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03-08-2009, 12:04 PM
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#111
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 184
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No joking matter.
This will be the first World War where the US isn't the only combatant with nuclear weapons.
Maybe the solution to global warming will be nuclear winter.
I do believe that "SOMETHING" has to give. There will be some sort of tide shift. I would rather see a global plague than a global nuclear conflict though.
Or maybe everyone will simultaneously come to their senses.
Bob Marley will descend from Heaven on a flaming chariot!
Stop all this fussin' and fightin'.
Don't worry. Be happy!
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03-08-2009, 03:19 PM
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#112
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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And some good Jamaican weed manna will fall from heaven...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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03-09-2009, 11:36 AM
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#113
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,323
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Wall St. Journal article today 3/9/09 has most pros saying the Dow to 5,000 and maybe 6,000 with the S&P to 500. Time for the Rolaids.
__________________
Please consider adopting a rescue animal. So very many need a furr-ever home and someone to love them! And if we all spay/neuter our pets there won't be an overpopulation to put to death.
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03-09-2009, 01:34 PM
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#114
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Boston
Posts: 620
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03-09-2009, 01:35 PM
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#115
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orchidflower
Wall St. Journal article today 3/9/09 has most pros saying the Dow to 5,000 and maybe 6,000 with the S&P to 500. Time for the Rolaids.
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I'd actually sleep easy if I thought it would end there.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-09-2009, 06:23 PM
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#116
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orchidflower
Wall St. Journal article today 3/9/09 has most pros saying the Dow to 5,000 and maybe 6,000 with the S&P to 500. Time for the Rolaids.
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I called 5500. 
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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03-10-2009, 12:56 PM
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#117
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,844
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Results, since the bottom is now in until September except for one a small chance of a retest maybe falling 118 points lower than the low so far of 6470 here are the results ordered from low to high, some took 2 guesses. I am in favor of price is right rules!
GPOND06470
Harley
69 6401
Want to Retire
3700 2770
Red Rover
4126 2344
Mr Invest
4672 1798
Dawg54
5100 1370
Ziggy
5200 1270
ReWahoo
5200 1270
Free 4 now
5252 1218
shotgunner
5274 1196
Dreamer
5317 1153
Frugality of Apathy
5324 1146
jug
5400 1070
BikerDude
5500 970
Clifp
5500 970
Steve O
5666 804
Donzo
5678 792
ReWahoo
5700 770
Hankster
5750 720
Michael B
5750 720
Free to Canoe
5757 713
Koolau
5942 528
Double Down
5972 498
Gotadimple
5987 483
Laurence
6000 470
al bundy
6000 470
Orchid Flower
6000 470
Just Me UC
6000 470
Moemg
6100 370
Coach
6250 220
CC DaCe
6250 220
Snodog
6284 186
The Fed
6286 184
Running Man
6352 118
CC DaCe
6500 -30
al bundy
6500 -30
Fuego
6549 -79
HFWR
6570 -100
Tad Pole
6666 -196
Orchid Flower
6763 -293
Trombone Al
6763.29- 293.29
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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03-10-2009, 02:34 PM
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#118
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,914
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man
The following is my fears of what may occur, hopefully I am wrong on this.
At some point shortly the market will cease going down, as most of the weak hands have been shaken out.
As the promises to fix the problem by the present administration will overshadow concerns of the potential ineffectiveness. However by fall, the need to sell US treasury notes for the actual promises given will be showing up as a massive global strain while at the same time state governments will be reviewing their upcoming state budgets and those will be bleeding red ink, causing a crisis in municipal and government bonds.
At this point faith in the recovery will evaporate and with it the stock market prices as they collapse in the fourth quarter to a new bear market low. The ability of spending a few trillion dollars will come as a process that was able to defer but not prevent the implosion of 50 trillion plus in imploding debt assets. However, for a time I think we will be better...
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Running_Man, thanks for your views. As usual you have given logic to my natural pessimism. Any ideas on potential strategies in the "calm before the storm". Cash in the mattress, gold, treasuries, "diversify", food, guns 'n ammo  ?
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -
Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
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03-10-2009, 02:45 PM
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#119
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,258
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau
Cash in the mattress, gold, treasuries, "diversify", food, guns 'n ammo ? |
Margaritas
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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03-10-2009, 03:07 PM
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#120
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau
Running_Man, thanks for your views. As usual you have given logic to my natural pessimism. Any ideas on potential strategies in the "calm before the storm". Cash in the mattress, gold, treasuries, "diversify", food, guns 'n ammo ? |
Heck I'm buying stocks for now
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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