View Poll Results: Dow's approximate bottom will be:
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6800+ ( we are at it now, up from here!)
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18 |
11.11% |
6500
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20 |
12.35% |
6250
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10 |
6.17% |
6000
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29 |
17.90% |
Below 6000 (Honey, sell silver on ebay! You like Fancy Feast?)
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85 |
52.47% |
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03-10-2009, 03:26 PM
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#121
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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Running man what is the second number after our predictions? For example I am listed at 5500 970?
FWIW, I really hope I am wrong in this poll, and right in the one I started a few months ago. Dow 12,200 at the end of the year.
I hope today puts some fear into the bears. If you try and time the market, and somehow we string two or three days like today in the week you could miss a 20% move.
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03-10-2009, 03:31 PM
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#122
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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It means your guess is currently 970 below the current "bottom".
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-10-2009, 03:33 PM
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#123
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
Running man what is the second number after our predictions? For example I am listed at 5500 970?
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Number of points off of being right from actual low
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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03-10-2009, 04:44 PM
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#124
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
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Nice work, RunningMan!
So with today's market surge, we made back, what, a week of losses? Anyone think an memo from the Citigroup boss was a flimsy excuse? Seems like there are a lot of people looking for a reason to buy. I'd really like it if it traded sideways for 18 to 24 more months so I can buy some more at these prices.
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03-10-2009, 04:48 PM
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#125
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by laurence
I'd really like it if it traded sideways for 18 to 24 more months so I can buy some more at these prices.
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Careful what you wish for you young pun...er, whippersnapper!
__________________
Numbers is hard
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03-11-2009, 10:09 AM
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#126
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man
Results, since the bottom is now in until September except for one a small chance of a retest maybe falling 118 points lower than the low so far of 6470 here are the results ordered from low to high, some took 2 guesses. I am in favor of price is right rules!
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Price is right rules, no way! And to those making multiple guesses, DQ them! Same for range guessers (or at least use the midpoint of their range)! Not that this interpretation would put me in the lead on this poll...
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03-11-2009, 08:53 PM
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#127
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,532
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Quote:
Originally Posted by laurence
I'd really like it if it traded sideways for 18 to 24 more months so I can buy some more at these prices.
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I am tired of buying so much at sale prices. I changed DH's 401K last night, so that new contributions would go 100% into the Stable fund. I am letting the old money ride in the funds they were in, since I am hoping that the market comes back while we are still alive. I decided that we needed to have more cash, in case it doesn't.
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04-01-2009, 09:49 PM
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#129
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Newcastle, WA
Posts: 208
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March, 2012: 2700. And, it'll be Chinese water torture all the way there: periods of the Dow being down 2-300 points a week for months, then fast sucker's rallies up a thousand points; then, another ratchet down of 2-300 points/week, then another sucker's rally, then...
'Course, Dow 2700 won't matter to anyone really, as Earth will be hit by a huge asteroid in April, 2012.
Dr. Doom, indeed!
Buy TIPs.
__________________
Don't just do something; stand there!
- Jack Bogle
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04-01-2009, 10:24 PM
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#130
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia
March, 2012: 2700. And, it'll be Chinese water torture all the way there: periods of the Dow being down 2-300 points a week for months, then fast sucker's rallies up a thousand points; then, another ratchet down of 2-300 points/week, then another sucker's rally, then...
'Course, Dow 2700 won't matter to anyone really, as Earth will be hit by a huge asteroid in April, 2012.
Dr. Doom, indeed!
Buy TIPs.
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Mayans think it will end DEc 2012. Yeah so buy tips.
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04-01-2009, 10:59 PM
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#131
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger
Mayans think it will end DEc 2012. Yeah so buy tips.
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Oh, I do hope they're wrong—I am aiming at semi-retirement in Jan 2013.
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04-02-2009, 03:36 PM
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#132
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,912
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia
'Course, Dow 2700 won't matter to anyone really, as Earth will be hit by a huge asteroid in April, 2012.
Buy TIPs.
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Kinda reminds me of Al Sleet's weather report ('long about 5:40 min) in the attached.
But seriously folks (sorry George, wherever you are) I'm looking for a "sucker" recovery. That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.
Regarding the asteroids and Mayans: One day at a time, baby, one day at a time!
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -
Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
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04-02-2009, 05:13 PM
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#133
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gotadimple
I thought I'd revive this thread with some articles that declare we have reached the bottom.
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Thanks Rita. These are all quite interesting. My attitude it that while we can easily say that stocks show this or that valuation by this or that metric, I don't know how one could say that The Bottom is in .
I believe that this almost has to be true, since the stock market and the world and US economies interact in various ways. Unless we know what will happen in the future, and how investors and the rest of the public will react to whatever happens, I don't know how we could know when or at what level a lasting bottom might form.
Humans are given to looking back and finding that whatever has happened was inevitable, due to "the deficit" or "too much debt" or whatever the cause du jour might be.
Not so, as is pretty well shown by how so many people are right once, then hit a long dry spell.
I think what is pretty solid is that the cheaper one buys a quality company, the less s/he will lose if the market goes down, and the more s/he will make if it should go up.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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04-02-2009, 08:17 PM
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#134
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,882
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Heard today on the local radio news that a poll shows that 27% of Americans think we've already hit the bottom. I think the number was 64% that thought we still have worse to come. I thought those numbers were interesting.
2Cor521
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
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04-02-2009, 10:23 PM
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#135
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521
Heard today on the local radio news that a poll shows that 27% of Americans think we've already hit the bottom. I think the number was 64% that thought we still have worse to come. I thought those numbers were interesting.
2Cor521
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Count me as one of those Mericans that doesn't know what the heck is going to happen.
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04-02-2009, 10:39 PM
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#136
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Newcastle, WA
Posts: 208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger
Count me as one of those Mericans that doesn't know what the heck is going to happen.
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Which means that your investment decisions are probably made with a more open mind than those of us (like me) who "know"...!
My "gut" tells me we've a sickening drop ahead still, but all that means is I'm deer in the headlights (i.e. I'm scared to deploy the cash I've got on the sidelines, waiting for Godot the Bottom.) Interesting to see where the market opens tomorrow, after this FASB mark-to-market thing settles.
Dow futures are down at 7945 even as we speak.
__________________
Don't just do something; stand there!
- Jack Bogle
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04-03-2009, 11:46 AM
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#137
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,603
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Quote:
I think the number was 64% that thought we still have worse to come.
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I would think this is a contrary indicator ... meaning that if 2/3s of shareholders have already acted on thier belief than the only direction left is UP.
__________________
FIRE'd since 2005
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04-03-2009, 12:05 PM
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#138
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tryan
I would think this is a contrary indicator ... meaning that if 2/3s of shareholders have already acted on thier belief than the only direction left is UP.
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This board has many members who profess bearishness, but continue heavily invested in stocks. So I am not sure that your idea can be counted on.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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04-03-2009, 12:08 PM
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#139
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 2,049
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tryan
I would think this is a contrary indicator ... meaning that if 2/3s of shareholders have already acted on thier belief than the only direction left is UP.
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Or, the 2/3rds are going to be holding cash instead of investing, which means that, with low volume, the market will whipsaw around and scare them further, causing a new NEW low.
If I'm right with my completely WAG, I'll be back to make another prediction. If I'm wrong, I'll wait a few months until everyone forgets and then I'll return to make another WAG prediction.
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04-03-2009, 12:21 PM
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#140
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,912
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eridanus
If I'm right with my completely WAG, I'll be back to make another prediction. If I'm wrong, I'll wait a few months until everyone forgets and then I'll return to make another WAG prediction.
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Heh, heh, you know, eridanus, there are folks on this board who NEVER forget.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -
Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
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