View Poll Results: Dow's approximate bottom will be:
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6800+ ( we are at it now, up from here!)
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18 |
11.11% |
6500
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20 |
12.35% |
6250
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10 |
6.17% |
6000
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29 |
17.90% |
Below 6000 (Honey, sell silver on ebay! You like Fancy Feast?)
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85 |
52.47% |
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04-03-2009, 12:23 PM
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#141
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia
Which means that your investment decisions are probably made with a more open mind than those of us (like me) who "know"...!
My "gut" tells me we've a sickening drop ahead still, but all that means is I'm deer in the headlights (i.e. I'm scared to deploy the cash I've got on the sidelines, waiting for Godot the Bottom.) Interesting to see where the market opens tomorrow, after this FASB mark-to-market thing settles.
Dow futures are down at 7945 even as we speak.
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Mostly Im frozen with fear and just keep buying. Sticking to my AA. For all I know what Im doing is completely wrong. Only the future will answer that question.
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04-03-2009, 01:25 PM
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#142
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia
My "gut" tells me we've a sickening drop ahead still, but all that means is I'm deer in the headlights (i.e. I'm scared to deploy the cash I've got on the sidelines, waiting for Godot the Bottom.) Interesting to see where the market opens tomorrow, after this FASB mark-to-market thing settles.
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That's about right. The market of the last 18 months has pretty much busted my original FIRE plans, but now that it's happened, pulling out pretty much guarantees they remain busted. So my decision is to just let what's still invested ride and hope for the best.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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04-03-2009, 01:31 PM
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#143
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonidas
There a boatload of money on the sidelines. No, make that a navy full of boatloads of money. I've heard $2 Trillion and more thrown around as the number, although I'm not sure how one determines what money is on the sideline and what money is just outside the market.
I keep going back to the technicians way of looking at things - why not, nothing else makes sense and I don't know anything about reading the entrails of chickens - to try and get some tiny bit of clarity here. My latest voodoo technical interest is Fibonacci retracement.
Note that I'm not espousing the theory, just tossing it out for discussion.
Anyway, current discussions and prognostications I follow elsewhere have discussed the potential for a Fibonacci retracement upward from 700-ish on the S&P, or, if it breaks that level going down, then from around 650. We're talking a quick, violent, and pretty massive upside - not back to where we were but close - 30% being the minimum. But it's generally seen as something that won't stick around for long.
And that last little bit is the one that has me wondering if this thing we're in right now might not have a bigger downside. Something like 1929 - 32 in which the market goes down about 50% (sound familiar?), then has a rally in which significant retracement takes place, followed by several years of a continual slide that goes past the previous low. Far enough past the previous low to make one fondly recall the days when we were down by only 50%.
I can deal with where we're at now. Don't like it - but I can deal. And I can handle a lengthy "L" shape on the recovery with an eventual, if very gradual, clawback upward. Like everyone else I've lost ground, years worth of it, but I'm still okay here and even a little lower. But the prospect of something like 1930-1936-ish is disturbing. '29 was bad, but the stuff that came later was worse.
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You posted your prediction on March 3rd. Your technical analysis appears to be accurate at this point in time. Interesting to see what's next.
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04-04-2009, 09:49 AM
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#144
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,255
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There's this (and a Grain of Salt):
6 reasons I'm calling a bottom and a new bull
Quote:
OK, so you're one of millions of investors impatiently waiting on the sidelines, sitting with $2.5 trillion cash under your mattress, waiting for the right moment, that signal screaming: "Bottom's in, start buying!" Yes, it'll go down again, but the bottom's in, thanks to a great March, possibly the third best month since 1950, so it's time to jump back in and buy, buy, buy!
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__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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04-04-2009, 09:54 AM
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#145
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,468
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
That's about right. The market of the last 18 months has pretty much busted my original FIRE plans, but now that it's happened, pulling out pretty much guarantees they remain busted. So my decision is to just let what's still invested ride and hope for the best.
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Sure, there will be downs as well as ups, but I am optimistic and hope there will be more ups than downs in the coming year. I am not pulling out either... no way! In fact, I might rebalance pretty soon.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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04-04-2009, 12:17 PM
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#146
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shotgunner
5274 by 9/2/2009. Final bottom for the DOW in 2010 at 2755.
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Please provide your analysis or methods to come up with the number and date.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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04-04-2009, 12:23 PM
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#147
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
.. So my decision is to just let what's still invested ride and hope for the best.
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That's the same approach as mine - just let it ride.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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04-04-2009, 12:35 PM
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#148
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
Please provide your analysis or methods to come up with the number and date.
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Nostradamus.
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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04-04-2009, 02:11 PM
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#149
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
Please provide your analysis or methods to come up with the number and date.
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Ask the Magic Eight Ball a Question
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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10-21-2009, 04:44 PM
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#150
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,840
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Quote:
At this point faith in the recovery will evaporate and with it the stock market prices as they collapse in the fourth quarter to a new bear market low. The ability of spending a few trillion dollars will come as a process that was able to defer but not prevent the implosion of 50 trillion plus in imploding debt assets. However, for a time I think we will be better...
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Placing a stake in the glass ceiling.....
I hereby declare I think the top is in at 10,119.47
We are now here, the 4th quarter from here on out to my perspective is getting positively scary.
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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10-21-2009, 05:23 PM
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#151
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Nowhere, 43N Latitude, NY
Posts: 9,037
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RonBoyd
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I asked this question..."what is the stock market bottom for 2009"
The responses were
1. No way
2. Outlook not so good
3. No way
Hmmmmmmm...2 out of 3 ain't bad...name that artist!
I'll arbitrarily say...on Dec 31, 2009, the DOW at close of business, will be 9658.
That's a special number for me.
How's that for a WAG? What do I know?
__________________
"All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them." - Walt Disney
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10-22-2009, 08:55 AM
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#152
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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Quote:
That's a special number for me.
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I wish you were four days younger.
__________________
Al
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11-09-2009, 09:30 AM
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#153
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,693
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man
Placing a stake in the glass ceiling.....
I hereby declare I think the top is in at 10,119.47
We are now here, the 4th quarter from here on out to my perspective is getting positively scary.
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RM, I know most of the time you're right on the money. I for one am very glad the Dow just went above your #.
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11-09-2009, 01:34 PM
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#154
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 5,170
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I think I voted for 6000. How wrong!! (unless it shots down at the end of the year....)
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