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Old 03-24-2021, 08:34 AM   #41
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If you sit and think about it, that seems like an eminently reasonable assertion...

One Mar 1 2020 we did have a 20% decline over Pandemic fears.
It didn't last long.
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Old 03-27-2021, 08:29 PM   #42
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I remember way back when we used to think a pandemic would cause a market crash.
It did but then quickly recovered due to aggressive monetary policy.
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Old 03-28-2021, 12:23 PM   #43
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"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University (1929)
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Old 03-28-2021, 12:43 PM   #44
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Is there ever a time when investing in the stock market isn't at least somewhat scary? I mean when things are going well in the stock market there are plenty who say it can't last, stocks are expensive, and when things are bad there are those who say the market has good reason to be down due to.... inflation, pe ratios, economy, etc.

So what's the solution? I don't have one. But I certainly do not read the headlines that much as it is impossible to tell how the market will perceive information beforehand. Come up with an AA that suits you and go on with life.
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Old 03-28-2021, 01:09 PM   #45
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So what's the solution?
The solution is to invest regularly over time, in good markets and bad, up or down, recession or boom, for the several decades of your working years. And then sit back and enjoy the results in retirement.
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Old 03-28-2021, 01:13 PM   #46
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The solution is to invest regularly over time, in good markets and bad, up or down, recession or boom, for the several decades of your working years. And then sit back and enjoy the results in retirement.
Yes, but a lot of people have trouble doing that. Maybe not on the forum, but investors in general. Fear oftentimes gets the best of investors . It's easier said than done for a lot of investors.
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Old 03-28-2021, 01:41 PM   #47
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Yes, but a lot of people have trouble doing that. Maybe not on the forum, but investors in general. Fear oftentimes gets the best of investors . It's easier said than done for a lot of investors.
Absolutely. I think the key is to automate it. We started investing in 1992 right after we got married. I set up an automatic investment plan for $50/month. As our situation improved, that increased to $100/mo, then $200/mo, then a couple of funds, then our IRAs and enrolling in work plans. Before we knew it, we had tens of thousands saved, then hundreds of thousands, now nearly $2 million. And we've been through a few big drops along the way but we just stuck with the program.


I think the hardest part is starting. Once you get started, I think it's easier to keep at it. And making it automatic takes some of the emotion and thought out of it.
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Old 04-06-2021, 06:49 AM   #48
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Yes, but a lot of people have trouble doing that. Maybe not on the forum, but investors in general. Fear oftentimes gets the best of investors . It's easier said than done for a lot of investors.


That’s true but recognize the fact that since 1871 the S&P 500 has grown at an average annual rate of about 10.8%. That includes the Great Depression, two world wars, the dot com bust and the sub prime meltdown to name just a few. It’s performed like that despite any of those events or anyone’s fears...
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Old 04-06-2021, 10:01 AM   #49
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I remember way back when we used to think a pandemic would cause a market crash.
I sure thought it would! But I stuck with my financial plan, AA, etc, which got me through 2008-2009, and guess what?

As of the market close last night, the sum of my portfolio and bank accounts is the largest that it has ever been in my entire life! I feel like I am living in some sort of crazy delusional fantasy, but there it is.

Despite my super conservative AA, this sum is 168% of what it was on the day I retired back in 2009. When corrected for inflation it has still risen by 150% even though I have used it to live on. OK that was more the case before I started getting SS, but still. I am simply floored. So much for the market crash that I was absolutely SURE would happen last year.

If any other Bogleheads have not been checking your portfolio lately, today is a good time to check it. Looks like a miracle to me and the Dow closed at 33,527 .
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Old 04-06-2021, 11:04 AM   #50
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As of the market close last night, the sum of my portfolio and bank accounts is the largest that it has ever been in my entire life! I feel like I am living in some sort of crazy delusional fantasy, but there it is.
That's it, folks. The moment we've been waiting for. W2R's "Whee!"

https://www.early-retirement.org/for...hee-30317.html
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Old 04-06-2021, 11:50 AM   #51
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That's it, folks. The moment we've been waiting for. W2R's "Whee!"

https://www.early-retirement.org/for...hee-30317.html
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Old 04-06-2021, 01:04 PM   #52
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As of the market close last night, the sum of my portfolio and bank accounts is the largest that it has ever been in my entire life! I feel like I am living in some sort of crazy delusional fantasy, but there it is.
W2R, you’re asleep and dreaming .... soon it will be time to wake up and get ready for work ... oooohhhhhh ...... oooohhh noooooooo .....
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Old 04-07-2021, 12:44 AM   #53
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W2R, you’re asleep and dreaming .... soon it will be time to wake up and get ready for work ... oooohhhhhh ...... oooohhh noooooooo .....
Yeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahh!!!!

What a nightmare I just had! But it's all gone, now.
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Old 04-07-2021, 06:13 AM   #54
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"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University (1929)
Freaky, as people were saying that in 1999 too.
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Old 04-07-2021, 06:34 AM   #55
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I heard Bob Brinker say, "The Stock Market Climbs a Wall of Worry".
I looked it up, apparently it was coined in the 1950s.
It seems very true to me!
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Old 04-07-2021, 06:40 AM   #56
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I have so many friends that are scared to death of the stock market. I have asked a few through the years, if they have any mutual funds etc. and they think a person is crazy to have money in the markets.

I can't imagine not being in the markets. There is no way living of off CD's, MM funds can make you a enough to even live a few months on.

Some of them are young and some are in their 60's and all working full time. Some own ranches and some working for a wage.
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Old 04-07-2021, 06:44 AM   #57
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One Mar 1 2020 we did have a 20% decline over Pandemic fears.
It didn't last long.
That was a scary rebalance. I wrote an essay at the time, imagining doing several things. The bottom line was that the feeling of not sticking to my guns and then having it go against me would be the outcome that I needed to avoid at all costs.
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Old 04-07-2021, 08:01 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by UnrealizedPotential View Post
Is there ever a time when investing in the stock market isn't at least somewhat scary? I mean when things are going well in the stock market there are plenty who say it can't last, stocks are expensive, and when things are bad there are those who say the market has good reason to be down due to.... inflation, pe ratios, economy, etc.

So what's the solution? I don't have one. But I certainly do not read the headlines that much as it is impossible to tell how the market will perceive information beforehand. Come up with an AA that suits you and go on with life.


+100. “The market climbs a wall of worry.” - Some sage person
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Old 04-07-2021, 08:40 AM   #59
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Absolutely. I think the key is to automate it. We started investing in 1992 right after we got married. I set up an automatic investment plan for $50/month. As our situation improved, that increased to $100/mo, then $200/mo, then a couple of funds, then our IRAs and enrolling in work plans. Before we knew it, we had tens of thousands saved, then hundreds of thousands, now nearly $2 million. And we've been through a few big drops along the way but we just stuck with the program.


I think the hardest part is starting. Once you get started, I think it's easier to keep at it. And making it automatic takes some of the emotion and thought out of it.
+1 to all of this. So many folk are scared of investing in the stock market, because they are fearful of it going down which, of course, it will do. Helping to increase the worry is data showing the fairly long periods during which the indices moved within narrow bands, the suggestion being that investing during these periods would have been pointless. However, these sorts of fears are only really legitimate for people who plan to put all of their money into equities at once, and withdraw it all at once, at a later date. Who does that?

Most would-be retirees invest into stocks gradually, over a long period. They also withdraw gradually, over (hopefully) a long period. This realization alone should help to negate any volatility fears a would-be investor might have. Even for people who begin their investing career with a fairly large sum, and who invest it all at once, they will still be withdrawing it gradually over a long period of time.

Just as many of us have inbuilt psychologies that tend to "set" our spending habits, our reactions to short and long-term investment volatility also seem to be baked into our personalities. I think it's possible, to a certain extent, to push back against some of these built-in tendencies. I've read stories here, from people who used to be spendthrifts, and have turned frugal. Likewise, over time, I think it's possible to get used to dealing with stock market volatility. I couldn't have retired without the stock market, and am glad I learned how to live with it's various idiosyncrasies and hissy fits. I do it mainly by ignoring them and thinking of the long-term*. Probably not too different from raising a teenager
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Old 04-07-2021, 10:53 AM   #60
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I've told the story before about my neighbor, that took all his $200k out after 9-11. We were setting at his kitchen table and he brought out his investment statement, and was wondering if things were all right. I looked it over, it was all in cash equivalents, I said, you don't have any stocks, he said yes, I took it all out of stocks after 9-11. That was July of 2019. I said you really should have some stocks! He was hesitant I said, just get your feet wet with $10,000. He has since that kitchen table conversation, missed a 67% gain in VTSAX.
As far as I know he never did buy any staocks, but he did buy a new 4 wheeler for almost $10,000.

Oh, he wasn't even keeping up with inflation with his cash equivalents. But he is safe! Except for the $600,000 he missed in VTSAX since 9-11. I think I forgot to add in dividends.
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