These folks cannot afford to be positive - too much career risk. IOW, if they are negative and wrong, no problem, because everyone else is. If they are positive and wrong, they stand out as wrong and suffer career risk (Grantham's term).
Roubini et al don't really reflect possible future actions to offset the negative economy, like the large fiscal spend that PE Obama has spoken about.
Another view of the US economy is
We are in a negative spiral, so unemployment will continue to rise and profits fall until it stops. 94% of the workforce is employed - and this may fall to 90%.
People with steady incomes (salary or pension) will benefit because the sharp decline in commodity prices will have a slight negative impact on consumer inflation.
The fed/treasury action till now has been focused on financial system stability, not economic recovery
The new Obama gov't will pass one spending project after another until employment picks up again.
Lots of middle-class wealth has been destroyed and will need to be replaced.
When employment picks up, the savings rate will increase to start to pay back down the gov't spending and shore up the retirement savings.
The greatest economic suffering will be in China, Japan and Germany - the three biggest exporters to the US.
The US economy will outperform EAFE because US labor productivity will grow faster. The loss of wealth here will be made up more quickly because people will just "work it off' - postpone retirement or go back to work.
The "ownership society" will lean slightly back toward a more balanced mix of owning and working.
I think things will get worse - but they will seem and feel much worse because of the constant negative feedback. Then suddenly it will change and the sun will shine again.
Michael
