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05-18-2006, 02:06 PM
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#81
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
What good news?* You know we've hit bottom when forbes/Money/newsweek/businessweek have a cover that says "Are Stocks Officially Dead?"* Look for that news.
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Oooh, ya! *I'll be selling the silverware to raise money to buy stock at that point! *
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05-18-2006, 02:38 PM
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#82
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,375
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Re: Stock Market Woes
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05-18-2006, 02:44 PM
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#83
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanTien
What are the chances of stagflation happening
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Probably pretty low.* *That memory is still fresh in the minds of the fed.* *In fact, it's why they are so reactive when it comes to inflation.* * They have a nuke called the Taylor Rule that is "guaranteed" to wipe out inflation.* *At considerable cost to the economy, of course.* * But the 70's taught them to take the pain up front rather than prolong it.
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05-18-2006, 02:47 PM
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#84
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Dan, if Bernanke lives up to his moniker, inflation could indeed get out of hand. *But I tend to dounbt that will happen simply because there are enough inflation hawks at the Fed. *More likely, they will overshoot and push the economy into a (hopefully) mild recession.
The line I keep hearing is that we are less vulnerable to stagflation than in the past because the US economy is much less energy-intensive than it used to be (i.e. it takes less energy per unit of output now than back in the 1970s). *I think this is probably true, but I am not willing to bet the farm on it. *As such, I won't be selling my commodities or equity in companies that own/control real assets.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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05-18-2006, 03:26 PM
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#85
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 190
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Re: Stock Market Woes
There was a report out of some brokerage last night saying that inflation numbers were about to get a 0.25% additional upward bias.
It's from housing. With the turn up in mortgage rates there are more renters, increasing rental demand. All of the housing data in inflation numbers derives from rents. That data did not reflect the housing price runup / bubble and now it will over assess inflation in housing at a time when home prices are dropping.
That portion of the measurement is bogus. If the Fed understands it, it will not influence them.
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05-18-2006, 03:46 PM
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#86
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Quote:
Originally Posted by rodmail
If the Fed understands it, it will not influence them.
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Well, if you believe the party line, it'll influence them heavily. It's widely believed that they have an inflation target for core inflation (ex-energy/food). Housing is part of the core, so if it goes up past 2% or so, the party line is for them to act fast and hard.
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05-18-2006, 04:45 PM
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#87
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Quote:
Originally Posted by rodmail
That portion of the measurement is bogus.* If the Fed understands it, it will not influence them.
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Absolutely! We have removed energy and food from the core, why not housing? As long as we are homeless beggars eating in soup kitchens and walking around all day, it will perfectly reflect our buying patterns.
And if we wear out too many shoes, thereby threatening to bump up the clothing category, just substitute old newspapers. Imagine the warmth the Sunday New York Times could provide to our toes!
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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05-18-2006, 05:04 PM
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#88
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 699
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Quote:
Originally Posted by rodmail
I'll tell ya what I don't understand.
The market was up about 5% in all of 2005. It was up about that at the peak last week. So this means that over a 17 month period there was less than a 10% rise -- and somehow, God knows how, but somehow people who lived through the 90's were talking about how this was an absurd runup and a bubble waiting to pop.
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It's all relative. For those of us whose base currency is the yen, and with a heavy dose of Japanese stocks, 2005 was the second best year in the market ever, beaten only by the final year of the bubble of the '80's.
The Nikkei average has more than doubled in the past 3 years. On top of which, the dollar strengthened against the yen last year, giving me much better returns on my US stocks than you got. (It has since given up some of that gain, but I'm still well ahead.)
We're still a long way from the peak of 1989-90, but a little breather seems about due.
Quote:
And what's worse is those same people are now talking about the 4% drop of the last few days as if it was a "crash". These are people who saw The Great Crash of 2000 and they still are talking about 4% being devastating.
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That I agree with. I didn't start investing until 2000, so I got used to regularly putting my money into a deepening hole from the start. Given how well cost-averaging through the dip worked out, I would love to have another, similar buying opportunity. The latest dip is not enough to get really interesting yet, but I can hope it is the start of a trend.
Bpp
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05-18-2006, 05:41 PM
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#89
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 190
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Quote:
That I agree with. I didn't start investing until 2000, so I got used to regularly putting my money into a deepening hole from the start. Given how well cost-averaging through the dip worked out, I would love to have another, similar buying opportunity. The latest dip is not enough to get really interesting yet, but I can hope it is the start of a trend.
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And this is such an avalanche of bearishness that one is hearing everywhere. Bricks in the wall of worry?
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05-18-2006, 06:05 PM
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#90
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Re: Stock Market Woes
This is an option expiration week. Overall, this tends to be a plus week. So a weak day tomorrow might presage more weakness next week. Still, even if it is working downward, rarely does it go straight down.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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05-18-2006, 09:20 PM
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#91
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 331
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Re: Stock Market Woes
The percentages are definately not that bad yet, but considering I bought $21k split among mid-cap, small-cap and the s&p on Friday, it's definately a blood bath from my perspective Talk about your crappy timing, eh?
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05-26-2006, 11:44 AM
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#92
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanTien
Send me a message when the time comes. Thanks.
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Shoot, I forgot to include you on the list.
It was yesterday.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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05-26-2006, 12:47 PM
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#93
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,375
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
Shoot, I forgot to include you on the list.
It was yesterday.
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You kinda hurt my feelings by forgeting me like that and then laughing about it.
Hey the smoked trout is working for me..having it right now on toast, cucumber lettuce & mustard...thanks for letting me know about that
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05-26-2006, 05:28 PM
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#94
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Sorry man, I try hard not to hurt peoples feelings. Really, I do. Really.
Nobody was more surprised than I was that canned smoked trout would be decent. We keep about 10 cans of the stuff in the back of the pantry. Makes a mighty fine "what the heck am I gonna have" snack.
Makes a nice pate as well...little bit of horseradish, some cream cheese, bit of lemon, maybe a few drops of cognac...maybe a little minced green onion...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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05-26-2006, 06:53 PM
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#95
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,375
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
Sorry man, I try hard not to hurt peoples feelings. Really, I do. Really.
Nobody was more surprised than I was that canned smoked trout would be decent. We keep about 10 cans of the stuff in the back of the pantry. Makes a mighty fine "what the heck am I gonna have" snack.
Makes a nice pate as well...little bit of horseradish, some cream cheese, bit of lemon, maybe a few drops of cognac...maybe a little minced green onion...
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I thought my whole week-end was going in the dumper, but thanks to your post, I'm doing much better now.
that pate sounds good too....and it looks from the post you were in the process of making it?...I'm picturing a younger version of Jacques Pepin.....remember to test the cognac before you mix it in
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05-26-2006, 06:58 PM
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#96
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Nah, havent made it in a while. Search for 'smoked trout pate' and you'll find plenty of mostly compatible recipes.
If you ever find smoked bluefish, in about the same approximate recipe its nearly orgasmic.
Oddly, I like cognac in a lot of recipes but not so fond of it by itself.
I do go through a bottle or so over the course of a year between steak au poivre and various pates...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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05-26-2006, 08:34 PM
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#97
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,856
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
Nobody was more surprised than I was that canned smoked trout would be decent.* We keep about 10 cans of the stuff in the back of the pantry.* Makes a mighty fine "what the heck am I gonna have" snack.
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Apres-hurricane food...
__________________
*
Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
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05-27-2006, 09:06 AM
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#98
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Re: Stock Market Woes
We have levy failures, flooding and potential mudslides here in place of the hurricanes.
And theres always that millions of years dormant volcano about 2 miles from my house.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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05-27-2006, 09:58 AM
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#99
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,228
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Re: Stock Market Woes
We are out in the MH and Greg and I just ate 3/4 of a pound of smoked lake superior salmon on crackers. To die for.
When we are less full, out for a bicycle ride.
__________________
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No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA
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05-27-2006, 07:20 PM
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#100
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
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Re: Stock Market Woes
Quote:
...reg and I just ate 3/4 of a pound of smoked lake superior salmon on crackers.
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Martha, isn't that the oily grey stuff that smells bad? When I lived in Chicago, I bought some and had to throw it away. You should try some Chinook some time.
Ed
__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
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