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Stock Markets: When Will the Bull Return?
03-08-2009, 05:14 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 56
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Stock Markets: When Will the Bull Return?
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03-08-2009, 05:39 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Hmmmm - how about the bull never returns and stock dividend yields go above bond yields(like before 1958) and stay that way - 'because stocks are iffy compared to bonds' - aka the long shadow cast from the Great Depression.
And then of course we all learn to hum 'Gimme That Old Time Religion' in Norwegian while we wait for our dividend checks.
heh heh heh - but I will try to be more optimistic.
Pssst Wellesley - SEC yield = 5.69% as of 3/6/2009.
P.S. If we could Freedom Fry French Fries a while back maybe we could Swedishize Banks instead of Nationalize and get things going.
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03-08-2009, 06:04 PM
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#3
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 312
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At this point, I'd be very, very happy if the year ends flat. Though barely more than two months into the year, "flat" already means a jump of about 33% from here!
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03-09-2009, 10:27 AM
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#4
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 920
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Yeah I remember a "how long will it take you to recover to max net worth" type thread from a little while back.
I believe I posted I could get back by year end assuming sideways market going forward... that sideways part sure turned out to be wishful thinking.
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03-09-2009, 01:19 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,008
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Assuming we are half way through an 18 year bear cycle, the "great bull" could return in 2017-2018.
In the meantime, there could be some strong multi-year rallies - aka "bear market rallies" - before additional nasty plunges. That is the nature of a "secular" bear market. I intend to rebalance.
Audrey
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03-09-2009, 01:24 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Not until the market gets something from policy makers (governments and central banks) that convince it that said policy makers have even half a clue.
Until then I see NO fuel for a rally, just more abject despair and uncertainty.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-09-2009, 01:29 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 13,151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Not until the market gets something from policy makers (governments and central banks) that convince it that said policy makers have even half a clue.
Until then I see NO fuel for a rally, just more abject despair and uncertainty.
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Well aren't you Mr Sunshine........ I just booked a couple of nights at a nice hotel for this weekend via Priceline. Got a good deal. Then I start reading the ER board, see your post, and it's instant buyer's remorse! Thanks a lot!
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
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03-09-2009, 01:31 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by youbet
Well aren't you Mr Sunshine........
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Yeah, I know -- but I don't see anything else driving this market. This market desperately needs some decisive policy measures that it believes in -- even if merely workable and not perfect.
I frankly don't see any other catalyst to snap out of this death spiral.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-10-2009, 02:35 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grep
At this point, I'd be very, very happy if the year ends flat. Though barely more than two months into the year, "flat" already means a jump of about 33% from here!
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Yeah, we'd need five more days like today.
__________________
Al
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03-10-2009, 02:44 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
Yeah, we'd need five more days like today.
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Sure is nice for a change. Probably down 500 tomorrow.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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03-10-2009, 02:51 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Look on the bright side. You could have capitulated and joined the herd using ultrashort funds for financials and real estate.
Those ETFs were both down over 25%. Today. In one day. Now THAT is some massive headbanging.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-10-2009, 03:10 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,596
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Assuming we are half way through an 18 year bear cycle, the "great bull" could return in 2017-2018.
In the meantime, there could be some strong multi-year rallies - aka "bear market rallies" - before additional nasty plunges. That is the nature of a "secular" bear market. I intend to rebalance.
Audrey
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The article tends to lean this way too:
"A more probable outcome is the one drawn from the narrow history of bear markets that grew out of financial crises. In it, the bear scenario continues to play out until the bull takes over, with more debt busts and government trial and error until things get set right again. That could mean two more years of bouncing around and then another six or so before the Dow is back above 14,000. Not long ago, such an outcome would have seemed unimaginably bleak. Given the other possibilities, it doesn't seem so bad now."
__________________
I purr therefore I am.
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03-10-2009, 03:27 PM
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#13
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 428
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YO, Bottom. It's me Rocky.
Old Mike
I called the bottom.
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