Swedroe: How Did Last Years "Sure Thing" Financial Predictions Pan Out?
At the start of each year, I compile a list of predictions that financial gurus and industry experts tell us are a "sure thing." And each year, I track how many of these predictions actually come true.
Before tallying up the total, it's worth noting that perhaps the biggest event in 2014, the collapse in oil prices, was a huge surprise to not only the market but also for two of the market's biggest-name "gurus."
Our final score for the sure things of 2014 is three correct predictions and seven wrong ones. It's pretty apparent that even the "sure" things didn't turn out to be sure. In fact, we've been providing our "sure things" scorecard since 2010, and not once has a majority of them occurred.
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 45% equity funds / 30% bond funds / 25% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)