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Old 08-14-2021, 12:22 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
You have to provide basic personal info (or Id have verified), but it appears you can still buy COLAd annuities. They cost about twice as much for the same starting payout.

https://www.immediateannuities.com/i...justments.html

https://www.annuity.org/annuities/ri...ost-of-living/
You can buy annuities that increase by a flat %, what you can't do anymore is buy an inflation adjusted annuity (other than delaying SS of course)
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Old 08-14-2021, 02:38 PM   #62
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For many the elephant in the room is $28 Trillion in national debt. I cannot imagine how this will turn out well for anybody.
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Old 08-14-2021, 03:50 PM   #63
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Absolutely not. There's this misconception that the debt will somehow need to be repaid. It won't. I'd like to see it decline in relation to GDP but that can happen if the rate of growth of the debt is lower than GDP growth over time. Unless things change big time, US Treasuries will always be in demand.

In fact, while Congress has seen fit to find deficits by issuing debt, even that technically isn't required.
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Old 08-14-2021, 11:32 PM   #64
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Absolutely not. There's this misconception that the debt will somehow need to be repaid. It won't. I'd like to see it decline in relation to GDP but that can happen if the rate of growth of the debt is lower than GDP growth over time. Unless things change big time, US Treasuries will always be in demand.

In fact, while Congress has seen fit to find deficits by issuing debt, even that technically isn't required.
Things ARE changing (big time is a relative term we won't know for a while.) INFLATION is kicking up. Whether it's a "Covid reaction" or more permanent, interest rates on the debt are very likely to increase. You're probably right that we won't ever pay off the debt. But if we fail to pay the inflating interest payments, we'll not be able to borrow yet more trillions and we can only print money for so long before (all the) people realize it's a scam. YMMV
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Old 08-15-2021, 01:36 AM   #65
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The 3.5% withdrawal rate may be OK for a 30 year retirement, or at least 92% OK. It is difficult to predict the end of life date, but probably better to think about living to 90 than to plan on leaving at late 70's. Your SSA benefit might be small based on less than 35 years of contributions.

Will the 3.5% meet your annual needs?
The SWR is just for planning. Life's spending can be chunky. Will you relocate? Will you need a new house? How about a divorce? New spouse? Major medical issues? Major tax changes? Are there, or will there be, children involved in your spending plan?

Retirement spending can be very different than spending when younger...your lifestyle can change significantly in the 40-45 years ahead. I think you can start with the 3.5%, but there are so many unknowns, I would recommend developing options for unusual circumstances ahead.
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Old 08-15-2021, 02:22 AM   #66
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PB4 did the Firecalc calculations for you, but in general the WR's listed are on the conservative side, as many current posters reached FIRE with a LBYM lifestyle and tend to stay to some extent in that mode.
No issues with that, but all the historical WR analysis has withdrawal percentages over 3% for a never ending retirement.
I'll have to play with fireCalc more... When I input my data and ~50 year time horizon, I get 100% success rate. I was surprised to see PB4's fireCalc reference conflicts with the scenarios I've input.
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Old 08-15-2021, 04:08 AM   #67
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I'll have to play with fireCalc more... When I input my data and ~50 year time horizon, I get 100% success rate. I was surprised to see PB4's fireCalc reference conflicts with the scenarios I've input.
IIRC, PB4 doesn't have your specific data, so I am guessing that he is using standard default numbers from Firecalc and calculating for a WR at the various total retirement years.
If so, then by default this would only include the WR on the investment assets and not include any Social Security.
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Old 08-15-2021, 08:17 AM   #68
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I'll have to play with fireCalc more... When I input my data and ~50 year time horizon, I get 100% success rate. I was surprised to see PB4's fireCalc reference conflicts with the scenarios I've input.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
IIRC, PB4 doesn't have your specific data, so I am guessing that he is using standard default numbers from Firecalc and calculating for a WR at the various total retirement years.
If so, then by default this would only include the WR on the investment assets and not include any Social Security.
Dtail is spot on. All I had was a 50 year time horizon and 3.5% WR... so I input $35,000 spending, $1,000,000 portfolio and 50 year time horizon on the Start Here tab, and changed the stocks from 75% to 60% on the Portfolio tab.

I suspect fire Dreamer is getting higher success rates because he has included SS, which I had no knowledge of.
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