|
01-12-2010, 07:45 PM
|
#1
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
|
T-Bond Bear Vehicles
First- this is a brainstorming post. I want all the suggestions that anyone can think of.
What I have thought of so far is to do a straight short sale of an ETF like TLT, buy puts on this issue, or buy a short or ultrashort bond ETF. The short bond ETF I think is a bad idea because of tracking error- they seem to chew up share price even when the position is not going against you.
Another possbility would be to use futures on the CME, or puts on financial futures.
Anything else come to mind?
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
01-12-2010, 07:54 PM
|
#2
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
|
RYJUX, which I believe uses futures.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
|
|
|
01-12-2010, 11:50 PM
|
#3
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,171
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
First- this is a brainstorming post. I want all the suggestions that anyone can think of.
What I have thought of so far is to do a straight short sale of an ETF like TLT, buy puts on this issue, or buy a short or ultrashort bond ETF. The short bond ETF I think is a bad idea because of tracking error- they seem to chew up share price even when the position is not going against you.
Another possbility would be to use futures on the CME, or puts on financial futures.
Anything else come to mind?
Ha
|
Gosh, I sure wish I understood what you just said
|
|
|
01-13-2010, 12:29 AM
|
#4
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: North of Montana
Posts: 2,769
|
Wait for a bond version of this?
Ok, I'm just kidding.
__________________
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
|
|
|
01-13-2010, 05:20 AM
|
#5
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: New York
Posts: 898
|
There are Euro-denominated CDS on US government debt.
(since we're just brainstorming, after all, its not likely a retail investor could buy one)
__________________
Money's just something you need in case you don't die tomorrow.
|
|
|
01-13-2010, 05:51 AM
|
#6
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
|
Maybe you could short or buy puts on something like NLY. They go long fixed rate agency MBS and lever up 5 times or better with floating rate financing. But the dividends would make this costly.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
|
|
|
01-13-2010, 06:39 AM
|
#7
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,433
|
Have you looked at these? They are European-style, cash-settled, and you don't need a futures account to trade them.
You can create a synthetic short future by selling the call and buying the put.
And, perhaps best of all, you don't have to understand "cheapest to deliver".
__________________
I'd rather be governed by the first one hundred names in the telephone book than the Harvard faculty - William F. Buckley
|
|
|
01-13-2010, 07:26 AM
|
#8
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
|
Me too. I think I will just stick to doing what I do best, losing money.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
|
|
|
01-13-2010, 07:36 AM
|
#9
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
|
If I shorted Treasuries, it would be a guarantee that a double dip recession was on the way.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
|
|
|
01-13-2010, 03:04 PM
|
#10
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
|
Thanks for all the sugestions. I found that the CBOE also sells listed options on various interest rates. I'll work out tracking, liquidity etc. over time. Don't know if I will do this or not, or how I would time it if I did, but I wanted to have my vehicles ready to go.
My lifetime history of bear bets is about 2:1 against me. Usually I get the market vulnerability right, but give up before the payoff because my timing is premature.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|