Tempted to do a little profit taking

Most of my annual income is met by taking mutual fund distributions in cash, which are accumulated within the account to be withdrawn Jan 2 of the next year. So, in a sense, this can be taking profits if the market is up and equity funds are paying big distributions. In reality, most of the distributions are paid in Dec, so it's a pretty small window for "profit taking".

I rebalance after withdrawal in Jan unless there has been a huge change during the year. This is rare.

I often feel like "locking in" profits when things are running high. But I don't actually do it. Years retired has shown me my annual rebalancing system works reasonably well.

Actually - I already feel like I'm "locking in profits" whenever I withdraw funds in Jan after a good market year, as my income is based on % of portfolio value every Dec 31. Then I pretty much ignore the portfolio until Oct - Nov when I start looking at expected distributions.

+1
My approach almost word for word!

Exception: If there's been a good-sized downdraft mid-year, I'll swap a few percent from a fund I've grown tired of into a fund I've been coveting.

Exception: I still check the portfolio's progress every evening.

Similar: My preliminary year end distribution announcements usually come around the second weekend of October. I sit there, Excel sheet a-ready.
 
I too refill my cash bucket after a run up. Doing so both rebalances and locks in gains.
 
Nothing wrong, IMHO, with taking some profits after a big run-up. (It's surprising how many people are content to just "let it ride" instead of buying low and selling high. I'm not advocating market timing, but if your portfolio is way, way up, and you can "lock in" the next year to several years of expenses and convert that to cash without materially impacting your AA, then by all means - I'd do that every single time).

It's possible (though unlikely, IMHO, with Schiller PE at all time highs, inverted yield curve, etc) that I'd miss "some" additional upside IN THE SHORT TERM, but more than likely, I or anyone else taking a "sell high" approach now is going to be ahead in the long term, as those $$s are now locked and not subject to gut-wrenching drops which are increasingly likely to be on the near horizon. Would that likely recover in 3, 5, 10 or more years? Probably. But the "bird in hand" approach definitely does have merit if it pays the bills and allows you to keep a still reasonable portion of the long-term bucket invested at the same time..

A prudent ER plan IMHO incorporates good use of cash and knowing when to replenish the cash bucket. It does seem that there's an over-reliance at times on being mostly fully invested, and I've always found that to be somewhat surprising. My own plan strategically uses cash more than most, and moves reasonably sized chunks in and out of equities when it makes sense - ie: if I can fund next year's expenses by selling a highly appreciated fund or equity that's had a very strong recent run, that'd be a time I'd consider it. (In fact, I'm planning to do that as soon as it's more advantageous from a tax standpoint [ie: early next Jan for 2020 taxes] on a stock I own that's almost tripled since I bought it). That might vary my AA but as long as it stays within a general range, I'm good with it and the increased SWAN factor that approach brings..
 
Last edited:
How rigid are you with rebalancing? This is our first full year of retirement, and after making our January IRA withdrawal for this year's living expenses, I notice we've completely recooped that, and have gained enough to cover next year's expenses. :dance:

I'm tempted to sweep that into my cash bucket, you know, just in case...

I don't rebalance, for well over 35 years it has ~ 75/25 up and down but in that range of percentages.
 
+1
My approach almost word for word!

Exception: If there's been a good-sized downdraft mid-year, I'll swap a few percent from a fund I've grown tired of into a fund I've been coveting.

Exception: I still check the portfolio's progress every evening.

Similar: My preliminary year end distribution announcements usually come around the second weekend of October. I sit there, Excel sheet a-ready.

Oh - I totally do fund swapping whenever tax consequences are minimal or advantageous. I have been shifting to more tax efficient funds whenever I can. Did a lot last December.

I download prices into Quicken regularly, and I do update investment spreadsheets at least quarterly, but I don’t really pay much attention to the noise until rebalance triggers are approached. Otherwise it’s kind of ho-hum and I don’t think about it much.
 
been 60/40 for years then after retiring in 2016 went to 55/45. After dow hit 27k I figured I have enough so went to 45/55 with 4 years in cash since we are not collecting SS yet. If the bull run ends and we have a correction I'd buy more equities that are on sale.


Another thing that scares me is a change in the White House as I think that would have an effect on the market. just my 2 cents!
Similar, here. 55/45. I'm 14 years from SS at full retirment age. Divs, int,etc covers expenses with a bit of a buffer. Been FIREd for just about six years.
 
I'm sorry to be dense, but I just don't see the difference between taking profits and rebalancing. Unless you're spending this money, taking the profit off the table just decreases your equity position and increases either cash or bonds (fixed). So, it seems to me you're saying (for example), you wanted to be 60/40 (or 60/30/10) and now that the market went up, you want to be 50/50 (or 50/30/20).

If that's what's going on, I struggle to agree with that. I started out at 40/60 (conservative and protecting against SOR risk), but I expect that my equity position will actually increase over the years/decades. Probably to something like 70/30. As I get older I will have less risk. Of course this is counter to winning the game and leaving, but that's my plan.

If, on the other hand, taking profits means you're spending more money in good times, I think that's risky.
 
Last edited:
I'm sorry to be dense, but I just don't see the difference between taking profits and rebalancing. Unless you're spending this money, taking the profit off the table just decreases your equity position and increases either cash or bonds (fixed). So, it seems to me you're saying (for example), you wanted to be 60/40 (or 60/30/10) and now that the market went up, you want to be 50/50 (or 50/30/20).

If that's what's going on, I struggle to agree with that. I started out at 40/60 (conservative and protecting against SOR risk), but I expect that my equity position will actually increase over the years/decades. Probably to something like 70/30. As I get older I will have less risk. Of course this is counter to winning the game and leaving, but that's my plan.

If, on the other hand, taking profits means you're spending more money in good times, I think that's risky.

Rebalancing is taking profits, but also reinvesting them in something that’s underperforming relative to other assets in the portfolio.
 
Last edited:
We have about a dozen of ETF's in my DW's IRA and last Friday I took some profits via a haircut from 5 of them that were very near to 52 week highs (about 2% of our portfolio). I moved the proceeds into a 5 month CD at 1.9% and will then pull that out in early 2020 without worrying about selling into a down market like what hit us last year in late 2018.
 
Nothing wrong, IMHO, with taking some profits after a big run-up. (It's surprising how many people are content to just "let it ride" instead of buying low and selling high. I'm not advocating market timing, but if your portfolio is way, way up, and you can "lock in" the next year to several years of expenses and convert that to cash without materially impacting your AA, then by all means - I'd do that every single time).

It's possible (though unlikely, IMHO, with Schiller PE at all time highs, inverted yield curve, etc) that I'd miss "some" additional upside IN THE SHORT TERM, but more than likely, I or anyone else taking a "sell high" approach now is going to be ahead in the long term, as those $$s are now locked and not subject to gut-wrenching drops which are increasingly likely to be on the near horizon. Would that likely recover in 3, 5, 10 or more years? Probably. But the "bird in hand" approach definitely does have merit if it pays the bills and allows you to keep a still reasonable portion of the long-term bucket invested at the same time..

A prudent ER plan IMHO incorporates good use of cash and knowing when to replenish the cash bucket. It does seem that there's an over-reliance at times on being mostly fully invested, and I've always found that to be somewhat surprising. My own plan strategically uses cash more than most, and moves reasonably sized chunks in and out of equities when it makes sense - ie: if I can fund next year's expenses by selling a highly appreciated fund or equity that's had a very strong recent run, that'd be a time I'd consider it. (In fact, I'm planning to do that as soon as it's more advantageous from a tax standpoint [ie: early next Jan for 2020 taxes] on a stock I own that's almost tripled since I bought it). That might vary my AA but as long as it stays within a general range, I'm good with it and the increased SWAN factor that approach brings..

Great post. Explains my view and actions much better than I did.
 
I'm sorry to be dense, but I just don't see the difference between taking profits and rebalancing. Unless you're spending this money, taking the profit off the table just decreases your equity position and increases either cash or bonds (fixed). So, it seems to me you're saying (for example), you wanted to be 60/40 (or 60/30/10) and now that the market went up, you want to be 50/50 (or 50/30/20).
I took it to mean they were (for example) 60/40, but the market run up caused the equities to go high, say 65/35. So they'll skim 5% off and rebalance to 60/40. Doing it now rather than waiting for a set time.

If that's the case, I see nothing wrong with that. There's no hard and fast rule about when you must rebalance. Some do it on a time basis, some do it when things get too far out of line. For me, distributions are essentially a transfer from equities to cash since I don't reinvest in my taxable account, and I withdraw as needed, usually from the asset class that is overweight. So those are essentially minor adjustments throughout the year, and at the end of the year I might make a larger adjustment if needed.
 
That would be ok as long as it is not an attempt at market timing.
 
How is profit taking different from market timing?
If you're just getting yourself back to your AA goal, I'd consider that different. To me market timing is actually changing your AA plan based on market conditions.
 
Market timing = going to hell. Profit taking = smart investing. :)

Did I market time---profit take---or rebalance yesterday?

Must have done all three as I finally got around to taking my 3rd quarter allowance and we are going to spend it.

Even though, as has been stated in this thread by a couple of posters, if you pull money out to spend it you are risking your future.
 
Even though, as has been stated in this thread by a couple of posters, if you pull money out to spend it you are risking your future.

To be clear, I only saw it as risky if the money was over and above your planned spending. For example, your portfolio is up 10% this year so you pull out $50K you would not have otherwise pulled out and by a BMW. That’s a bit risky.
 
To be clear, I only saw it as risky if the money was over and above your planned spending. For example, your portfolio is up 10% this year so you pull out $50K you would not have otherwise pulled out and by a BMW. That’s a bit risky.

Kind of agree, but for those that use a variable rate spending which is dependent on the portfolio's value, this might not be a bad thing, as long as one makes the appropriate cuts when things go south.
 
To be clear, I only saw it as risky if the money was over and above your planned spending. For example, your portfolio is up 10% this year so you pull out $50K you would not have otherwise pulled out and by a BMW. That’s a bit risky.

Well, if the market crashes next year and you have to cut back to eating ramen noodle all day (it's cheaper than cat food), at least you still have that BMW in the garage. :D
 
How rigid are you with rebalancing? This is our first full year of retirement, and after making our January IRA withdrawal for this year's living expenses, I notice we've completely recooped that, and have gained enough to cover next year's expenses. :dance:

I'm tempted to sweep that into my cash bucket, you know, just in case...
How rigid with rebalancing?
Not very. I rebalance when I withdraw or when I think it looks like a good time to do so. I have no set boundry like if it gets 5% out of line it must be done then, or date based. I just do it when it feels right. So far that's been as little as 1% to 4% off AA.
Just looked and even with the recent run up I'm only 62/38. I'll be waiting till I need 4Q living money to rebalance. For what it's worth I never rebalanced from bonds to stocks. Been lucky that it hasn't gotten far off that direction since retiring.
 
Just sold some high-flying ETFs to reduce my equity AA to 65%. I used to run stock AA as high as 75% to 80%.

And I sold some August covered call options, and if they hit, that will reduce the equity AA to 60%.

Profit taking? Raising cash? Reducing equity AA? All of those, I guess.
 
What is it that you are imagining will happen in the next few months, such that would be better to have cash rather than have your money working for you?

My crystal ball is hazy today...
Something called reversion to the mean...a particularly likely outcome when the market is up roughly 28% YTD.
 
live on 3000 a month. 93% s&p. 7% CASH. up 300000 this year. so I made 8 years of living in 6 months. I think I'll take a year out and spend $4000 a month. I'm 66 have 1.2m.
Will take SS at 70. I'm waiting for a 25% drop so I can send money from IRA to Roth S%P
Did it on Jan. 1st and recovered really nice even made my tax's back.
 
live on 3000 a month. 93% s&p. 7% CASH. up 300000 this year. so I made 8 years of living in 6 months. I think I'll take a year out and spend $4000 a month. I'm 66 have 1.2m.
Will take SS at 70. I'm waiting for a 25% drop so I can send money from IRA to Roth S%P
Did it on Jan. 1st and recovered really nice even made my tax's back.
Welcome to the forum! At your age and proximity to being able to take SS, it looks like you're in great shape! Your withdrawal rate is very conservative (without knowing about your future SS income). If you use the variable percentage rate worksheet, you could take up to 4.8%, or $57,600 annually, and according to Firecalc, assuming you received $20K in SS starting in 4 years, you could safely withdraw $58,775 (including taxes). If you are going to get more in SS/pension payments, you could spend more.

I understand if you want to leave an inheritance to someone, but right now, it looks like your spending is way below what your assets can support. Most folks would recommend more diversification than you have, and a greater % of fixed income. Best wishes!
 
Last edited:

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom