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09-29-2008, 07:29 AM
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#61
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,329
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisC
Wanna bet?
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The "taxpayers will make money on the bailout" prediction relies upon many assumptions. Do you know what they are? What happens if your assumptions turn out to be false? The "taxpayers will lose money on the bailout" relies on fewer assumptions, because it's a lot easier to lose money on an investment than make it.
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Originally Posted by Finance Dave
I say let the market work.
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You might enjoy this anti-bailout article, which I mostly agree with:
David Sirota: Top 5 Reasons to Vote Against Paulson's $700 Billion Bailout
Echoing what other have said, I'm amazed just how much power and flexibility the legislation gives the Treasury Dept. We are relying on the judgment of Treasury officials, contractors, and subcontractors to intervene constructively. I didn't see any sign that pre-approval or discussion is required before any particular intervention; instead, the oversight committees just review what has been done. Remarkable.
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09-29-2008, 07:47 AM
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#62
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 655
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
if it was a house i'd probably stay. a condo i'd give back to the bank like i had bought it from wal mart
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When DD and SIL first started discussing their dream of buying a home, we actually tried to talk them out of it. They were caught up in the euphoria of the moment and thought they could make 20k or 30k within a year and then buy a house.
We could see the train wreck coming and tried to talk them out of it. But, of course they knew much more about it then old mom and dad. Now they're stuck in an upside down investment.
__________________
"I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately... and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived."
--Henry David Thoreau
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09-29-2008, 07:48 AM
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#63
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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C-SPAN Live Stream - C-SPAN
if anyone wants to watch it live
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09-29-2008, 07:53 AM
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#64
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,475
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Glad to see they managed to rush this deal to avoid a market selloff today...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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09-29-2008, 08:02 AM
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#65
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,329
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Uh oh...
My Sunday paper ran an advertisement for the sleep-aid medication Ambien. In the fine print was the following warning:
Quote:
After taking Ambien, you may get up out of bed while not being fully awake and do an activity that you do not know you are doing. Later, you may not remember that you did anything.
Activities include:
+ driving a car
+ making and eating food
+ talking on the phone
+ having sex
+ walking
+ voting on bailout legislation
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The Washington Post reported today that the financial services industry has supplied the entire Congress with free samples of Ambien. This does not bode well for this nation. 
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09-29-2008, 08:17 AM
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#66
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 8,664
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Glad to see they managed to rush this deal to avoid a market selloff today...
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Looks like the beginning of a sell off is in progress. The talking heads are saying were in for a global recession even if this thing passes. Lord knows what will happen if it doesn't pass.
Time to go build a bomb shelter in the backyard. 
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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09-29-2008, 08:22 AM
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#67
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,475
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52
Looks like the beginning of a sell off is in progress. The talking heads are saying were in for a global recession even if this thing passes. Lord knows what will happen if it doesn't pass.
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Classic example of "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" IMO.
I think global recession is already very much priced in the market. But as long as there is uncertainty and borderline panic, markets are certainly known to overshoot in both directions -- sometimes drastically. These create the bubbles and the once-in-a-generation buying opportunities for those with the stomach for it.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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09-29-2008, 08:30 AM
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#68
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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last i heard SP500 earnings were supposed to be $63 for 2008. reality will probably close to $50. not sure what 2009 is supposed to be, but if they are $55 then the market is probably too expensive at this level
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09-29-2008, 08:36 AM
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#69
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 976
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Quote:
Originally Posted by socca
The "taxpayers will make money on the bailout" prediction relies upon many assumptions. Do you know what they are? What happens if your assumptions turn out to be false? The "taxpayers will lose money on the bailout" relies on fewer assumptions, because it's a lot easier to lose money on an investment than make it.
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The only major assumption I'm making is that housing is not in a free-fall and that the housing bottom will be around the corner. My minor assumption is that the reverse auction and other pricing mechanisms will price the securities below current fair value and the purchase price is significantly less than value of these securities when held to maturity.
Aren't your assumptions for failure just the reverse of this? Or do you have some other insights?
Wanna bet.
__________________
Someday this war's gonna end . . .
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09-29-2008, 09:10 AM
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#70
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Glad to see they managed to rush this deal to avoid a market selloff today...
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At least theres some good news. Oil is still dropping like a rock! 
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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09-29-2008, 09:12 AM
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#71
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,475
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
last i heard SP500 earnings were supposed to be $63 for 2008. reality will probably close to $50. not sure what 2009 is supposed to be, but if they are $55 then the market is probably too expensive at this level
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P/E is a terrible indicator of valuation in an economic downturn.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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09-29-2008, 09:18 AM
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#72
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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too bad gold is not and t-bills aren't. end of the world trade is still in full swing
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