Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 09-21-2017, 09:28 AM   #81
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 4,401
I guess the threads that annoy me somewhat are more those that hint at needing a lot of net worth to overcome relatively small risks.

"Don't count on SS"

"4% might not work in the future"

"Healthcare may cost you $500,000" (this one is probably ONLY true for those with high net worth)
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-21-2017, 09:48 AM   #82
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
flintnational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 1,499
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion View Post
I guess the threads that annoy me somewhat are more those that hint at needing a lot of net worth to overcome relatively small risks.

"Don't count on SS

"4% might not work in the future"

"Healthcare may cost you $500,000" (this one is probably ONLY true for those with high net worth)
While not annoyed, I agree. I'm generalizing, but folks as a rule are very (overly IMO) risk averse. In reality, I think we often minimize one risk but increase another unrecognized risk. "Working OMY only to find out you have health issues".

FN
__________________
"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
flintnational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2017, 10:40 AM   #83
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: New York City
Posts: 2,838
Quote:
Originally Posted by HadEnuff View Post
I checked the acronyms page, and didn't see INTJ, or INTP....

enlighten me, please.
Of course I had to A) look at the acronym page, then 2) google it. It is still a mystery to me, but it has to do with personality types.
__________________
Withdrawal Rate currently zero, Pension 137 % of our spending, Wasted 5 years of my prime working extra for a safe withdrawal rate. I can live like a King for a year, or a Prince for the rest of my life. I will stay on topic, I will stay on topic, I will stay on topic
Blue Collar Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2017, 01:16 PM   #84
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 17,122
Quote:
Originally Posted by HadEnuff View Post
I checked the acronyms page, and didn't see INTJ, or INTP....

enlighten me, please.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Collar Guy View Post
Of course I had to A) look at the acronym page, then 2) google it. It is still a mystery to me, but it has to do with personality types.
If you haven't found it already

http://www.myersbriggs.org/my-mbti-p...pes.htm?bhcp=1
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 30% bond funds / 20% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2017, 01:56 PM   #85
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Rianne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Champaign
Posts: 3,455
I want to know...if net worth is 2.9M at age 50, what will it be at age 60? If HI is $532/mo now, what will it be next year? Could be 2K/mo. What length of RE are we talking about...30 years, 40 years? If 2.9M at 50 yrs. old can take me to 100 years old spending $84K a year, I'm good with that.

It's really a guessing game. One hopes HI doesn't go from $6000/yr to $24,000/yr and no limit to out of pocket expense. One hopes taxes don't go from !5% to 25%. One hopes one never gets hit my a hurricane without hurricane insurance. I'm hoping a lot these days. I feel the FIRE but hope I don't live near a dry forest.
Rianne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2017, 03:48 PM   #86
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 504
Man, sounds like we need one of those anonymous surveys with all of these questions together
pj.mask is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2017, 08:53 PM   #87
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,069
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
...holds 11 or fewer mutual funds in portfolio,

with a house that's 15% or less of net worth and,

46% have a pension that provides 25% or more of income, 24% have a pension but less than 25% of income and 30% have no pension.

Based on 6 fairly current polls from earlier threads and stemming from another thread. It seems there are always assumptions about how individuals here think they compare to others on ER.org - with some misconceptions both ways. The distributions are pretty wide, so you're probably in good company here no matter how you compare...

[Caveat: Drawing means from histograms is not exact for those anxious to pounce.]


Voluntary polls are highly unreliable to the point they can't be accepted as foundation for any conclusions.
dallas27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2017, 09:27 PM   #88
Full time employment: Posting here.
FlaGator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: The 850
Posts: 723
Really?

I concluded, based on the voluntary nature of polls of self-selected participants who are in a narrow strata of financial self-discipline, there is a broad range of ways to retire early

I agree, statistically, one shouldn't make any life-changing decisions based on these results. It's a reference point for me, one of several that confirm I'm between the guardrails.

I'm puzzled by the statistics-based dismissal of any utility (there's a word for you economists ) of summarization of board polls. We're not approving lifesaving cancer drugs based on these stats.....
__________________
Stay at home slacker dad since 2015
FlaGator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 07:12 AM   #89
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 23,641
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlaGator View Post
... I'm puzzled by the statistics-based dismissal of any utility (there's a word for you economists ) of summarization of board polls. ....
Speaking for myself, I never said there is not any utility to the data in these polls. But I think I'm on firm ground when I say that the terms used in the title and many follow-up posts are just not valid. You cannot say that these polls represent the averages of the members here. As has been pointed out, self-selected or self-reported polls cannot be counted on to be representative, and these are both.

It doesn't mean it's not worth discussing. It doesn't mean it's not worth starting a thread on it. It doesn't mean we can't just have some fun with it. But it is just inappropriate to say these polls represent the averages of the members here. It only represents the averages of those who chose to take the poll, and what they chose to report. And if someone is using words that infer that it does represent the actual averages of the members here, well, they can expect to be corrected.

Let's not try to take something from it that we cannot, that's all. Otherwise, go ahead and have fun with it, discuss it, whatever - but it just cannot be assumed that the data represents the actual averages of the general membership here.

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 07:31 AM   #90
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Citizen of Texas
Posts: 6,334
Personally I like a lot of the polls that are held on this site, even some of the more serious ones. Heck, I've even started a few. If I'm not interested, I move on. However, I realize that the way polls are presented (worded) or who (or who doesn't) participate may have a significant effect, not to mention the makeup of the sample groups. All are taken with a few grains of salt. Need an example, most pollsters sure blew it in November.
Car-Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 07:36 AM   #91
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 17,122


'Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good'...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 30% bond funds / 20% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 07:42 AM   #92
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 17,122
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Speaking for myself, I never said there is not any utility to the data in these polls.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Based on .... self-selected self-reporting. It is meaningless to say this represents anything other than what those people who took the poll decided to report.

Even if they were truthful/accurate, it's still only a summary of the data of those who chose to take part in the poll. We have no idea if that group is representative of the population of ER.org'ers.

Polling 101.

-ERD50


'Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good'...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 30% bond funds / 20% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 07:48 AM   #93
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 23,641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post





'Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good'...
What's the problem? Are you saying self-selected and self-reported polls can be assumed to be representative of the larger group? I think you are arguing facts there. Read up a bit on polling methodology if you doubt it.

It also doesn't mean the data isn't representative, it might be, but we have no way to determine that.

But if someone wants to analyze what the poll takers reported, have at it. Just don't try to tell me it can be taken as representative.

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 08:30 AM   #94
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Amethyst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 10,454
It's more data than we would have if nobody ever did a poll, that's all.
And to me, that's worthwhile, especially since I don't have to do anything to get the data - other than peruse the forum.

We all know the real deal - net worth aside - is always going to be, How much $$ do you need? And how much more than that do you have, and how safe are you from losing it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
It doesn't mean it's not worth discussing. It doesn't mean it's not worth starting a thread on it. It doesn't mean we can't just have some fun with it. But it is just inappropriate to say these polls represent the averages of the members here.

-ERD50
__________________
If you understood everything I say, you'd be me ~ Miles Davis
'There is only one success – to be able to spend your life in your own way.’ Christopher Morley.
It involved a mannequin hand, and an electric shaver taped to a golf club! - "The Other Guys"
Amethyst is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 08:53 AM   #95
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,441
All polls are self-selected to a certain extent because in all polling situations certain people who are questioned instead opt out. Most polls here may have too small a number of responses to diminish the impact of self-selection.
GrayHare is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 09:18 AM   #96
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 17,122
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
What's the problem? Are you saying self-selected and self-reported polls can be assumed to be representative of the larger group? I think you are arguing facts there. Read up a bit on polling methodology if you doubt it.

It also doesn't mean the data isn't representative, it might be, but we have no way to determine that.

But if someone wants to analyze what the poll takers reported, have at it. Just don't try to tell me it can be taken as representative.

-ERD50
You're on a mission again - relax. It wasn't intended to be perfect, and there was a stated caveat in red in post #1. It's just a summary of the poll data here - since there's no other "data" to work with that I know of. Though admittedly not perfect, I doubt it's "wrong" by orders of magnitude. Folks can make of it what they like, no one is expected to draw "meaningful" conclusions.

Obviously it's self selected, it was meant to represent the ER.org audience, though it's still a random subset - as many (but not all) polls are. And most polls are self reported, participants can always misrepresent their answers, we've all seen countless polls that didn't predict actual outcomes. This audience knows the shortcomings of polls.

If the summary wasn't of interest to you, that's fine. And I you have a better approach, I'm sure some members would be interested...

Your motive isn't accuracy anyway, so you're welcome to the last word.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 30% bond funds / 20% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 09:36 AM   #97
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
street's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 5,127
Again thanks for the data and I always enjoy the polls. I think we should take the polls for what they are worth and they aren't all created equal just like an poll that exists on any topic. Each situation is different but it does give a good view from people that took apart in these polls.
street is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 09:41 AM   #98
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 30,524
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
You're on a mission again - relax. It wasn't intended to be perfect, and there was a stated caveat in red in post #1. It's just a summary of the poll data here - since there's no other "data" to work with that I know of. Though admittedly not perfect, I doubt it's "wrong" by orders of magnitude. Folks can make of it what they like, no one is expected to draw "meaningful" conclusions.

Obviously it's self selected, it was meant to represent the ER.org audience, though it's still a random subset - as many (but not all) polls are. And most polls are self reported, participants can always misrepresent their answers, we've all seen countless polls that didn't predict actual outcomes. This audience knows the shortcomings of polls.

If the summary wasn't of interest to you, that's fine. And I you have a better approach, I'm sure some members would be interested...

Your motive isn't accuracy anyway, so you're welcome to the last word.
And I'm sure many participants here - and most of the long time ones - understand the constraints.

I thought the effort was worthwhile, found the compilation very interesting and appreciate the post. In spite of all the obvious caveats. I thought it was great!
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 09:52 AM   #99
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
street's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 5,127
As I look at it we are almost all in the top 10% of the wealthiest people in the US. From the ranges I have seen it goes from 800K to 8M to be in the top 10% of wealth in the US. That is something we all should be every thankful for we all are very fortunate to be where we are at financially.
street is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 09:53 AM   #100
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 23,641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
You're on a mission again - relax. It wasn't intended to be perfect, and there was a stated caveat in red in post #1. ...

Your motive isn't accuracy anyway, so you're welcome to the last word.
My only motivation was in accuracy of the description. It just bugs me to see someone say that a poll like this represents the average of the membership, when that cannot be said. Is that really so hard to understand?

It has nothing to do with 'perfection', just call a spade a spade.

Quote:
And I you have a better approach, I'm sure some members would be interested...
Like most everything, until the goal is stated, an approach cannot be defined. And I don't see any way to get an accurate accounting of "the membership" here, with a self selected, self reported poll, so no, I won't be offering a 'better' approach.

So yes, take from the poll what you wish, maybe something of value can be gleaned, fine. Just don't try to tell us it represents "the membership here"! It's that simple!

OK, I'm calling it - Time of Death of Horse is 10:51 CT.

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Average Net Worth - by age imoldernu FIRE and Money 44 07-27-2012 04:35 PM
Poll: how has your net worth changed since market highs? free4now FIRE and Money 115 03-23-2008 08:46 PM
more than average savings- average spending shorttimer Young Dreamers 23 11-04-2006 05:32 PM
Updated Net Worth Figures - How Do You Rate? intercst Other topics 0 01-22-2003 07:00 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:35 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.