The Bear Finally Came Out of Hibernation

[ESRwannabe]

Dow futures point to more than 500 point opening loss following market’s worst day since ‘Black Monday’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/futures-stock-market-coronavirus-concerns.html

Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, wife of Canada PM Justin Trudeau, tests positive for coronavirus

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/sop...n-trudeau-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

Cryptocurrencies see $93.5 billion wiped off value in 24 hours as bitcoin plunges 48%

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/bit...y-prices-plunge-after-stocks-record-fall.html

The five biggest tech companies lost more than $400 billion in value on Thursday

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/tec...-416point63-billion-in-value-on-thursday.html

 

[brewer12345]

That's the thing- reaching capitulation takes time. This has all happened too fast for hardly anyone to even throw in the towel! I have never seen anything drop so fast and I've been through two very nasty bears.

I think that I much prefer a slow grind down!!!

This has knocked our net worth back down to about mid 2017 - but we've also been spending, gifting and paying taxes for the past 3 years.

I think the swiftness is a combination of a market that was at lofty levels, the amount of leverage in the system, and the fact that margin calls piled up fast as credit markets started to seize. As things get bad in the real world we will see the panic unfold at the retail level. After that we will see the bottom, but owing to the unique dynamic of the pandemic it may take the levelling off of the disease before things calm down.

 

[audreyh1]

I think the swiftness is a combination of a market that was at lofty levels, the amount of leverage in the system, and the fact that margin calls piled up fast as credit markets started to seize. As things get bad in the real world we will see the panic unfold at the retail level. After that we will see the bottom, but owing to the unique dynamic of the pandemic it may take the levelling off of the disease before things calm down.

Yeah - that's how I imagine it. All this air coming out of a puffed up system*, yet no ability to bottom or calm down until we know where we are with the epidemic, and that’s going to take a while.

How do you watch the credit markets?

*Dare I say it? - It’s like watching a bubble burst?

 

[pb4uski]

-16% YTD... but -6% just today.... stunning one day result.

Equities down 23-30% YTD. Fixed income is only down a tad.... CDs are slightly positive and preferred portfolio is -5%.

Too late to do much other than ride it out.

 

[audreyh1]

Dow futures point to more than 500 point opening loss following market’s worst day since ‘Black Monday’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/futures-stock-market-coronavirus-concerns.html

The futures have been wandering all over the map all evening. One moment it’s down 600, a while later it’s down 300. Back and forth.

 

[Dtail]

The futures have been wandering all over the map all evening. One moment it’s down 600, a while later it’s down 300. Back and forth.

Up 263 points at 2:58am. Crazy and yes just overtired now.

 

[Dtail]

I use the CNBC app.

Same here. Easy app and lots of info.

 

[Aus_E_Expat]

After Wall Street last night the Australian market fell 7% on its opening.

Late in the afternoon the Australian government made some positive announcements on curtailing Corona virus and the market ended up closing up 4.4% on Friday.

Bear market is still not over but if US government can start to make positive announcements then maybe there will be a (dead cat) bounce.

 

[audreyh1]

Same here. Easy app and lots of info.

Yeah. I don’t watch CNBC anymore, haven’t for years. But I use their app almost daily. Great way to get the info without having to listen to the talking heads!

 

[RxMan]

After Wall Street last night the Australian market fell 7% on its opening.

Late in the afternoon the Australian government made some positive announcements on curtailing Corona virus and the market ended up closing up 4.4% on Friday.

Bear market is still not over but if US government can start to make positive announcements then maybe there will be a (dead cat) bounce.

The US government could make positive announcements until they are blue in the face and the media won’t report it. Good luck if that is what you are hoping for to get any kind of a bounce up in this market.

It seems the US is about a month and a half behind China in the cycle of the virus cases and the stabilization process. I expect cases to go up in the US in the next few weeks with the potential for all of our precautions being able to hopefully limit those additional cases.

Then the good new about cases dropping should start to calm things down. The question is how badly will earnings be affected and how long will it take for people to feel comfortable about getting out and spending money again? Plus, even if things improve and people become more comfortable with the idea of getting out and spending will they have the money to spend?

 

[pj.mask]

The US government could make positive announcements until they are blue in the face and the media won’t report it. Good luck if that is what you are hoping for to get any kind of a bounce up in this market.

The government has made many positive announcements (the majority of them being proven lies - that isn’t opinion, these are fact based evaluations)

Local gov is starting to take the lead banning events/gatherings but we are just getting started. We are following perfect exponential growth at this point (very good fit on infected count with a trend line)

I believe there will be a fed reaction mid next week based on >10k cases. The question is will there be any confidence that the response will actually be executed and that it will control the situation.

 

[target2019]

After Wall Street last night the Australian market fell 7% on its opening.

Late in the afternoon the Australian government made some positive announcements on curtailing Corona virus and the market ended up closing up 4.4% on Friday.

Bear market is still not over but if US government can start to make positive announcements then maybe there will be a (dead cat) bounce.

I think a dead cat bounce is not desirable. What the phrase means is that the cat is dead, and it bounces, but it lays dead the next day.

As for positive announcements and effectivity, we'll have to see what happens when proven-true positive announcements begin to come out. Unfortunately, I think this will take a month or two to happen.

 

[pb4uski]

The US government could make positive announcements until they are blue in the face and the media won’t report it. Good luck if that is what you are hoping for to get any kind of a bounce up in this market.

It seems the US is about a month and a half behind China in the cycle of the virus cases and the stabilization process. I expect cases to go up in the US in the next few weeks with the potential for all of our precautions being able to hopefully limit those additional cases.

Then the good new about cases dropping should start to calm things down. The question is how badly will earnings be affected and how long will it take for people to feel comfortable about getting out and spending money again? Plus, even if things improve and people become more comfortable with the idea of getting out and spending will they have the money to spend?

Totally disagree with the first paragraph and totally agree with the last two paragraphs.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

I have seen meaner bears, but I have never seen one that could eat so fast. Just brutal.

 

[pb4uski]

I have seen meaner bears, but I have never seen one that could eat so fast. Just brutal.

Good/funny way of putting it. I'll probably use that line.

 

[audreyh1]

I have seen meaner bears, but I have never seen one that could eat so fast. Just brutal.

The bear is very hungry because it was a much longer hibernation than usual?

 

[pb4uski]

That could be.

 

[pb4uski]

Looks to me like we just gave up all of 2019's gains.

 

[razztazz]

Looks to me like we just gave up all of 2019's gains.

All the huffing and puffing since Nov of 2017 has been nullified. The two-and-a-half years that never were

 

[pb4uski]

Actually, since the end of September 2017 (with dividends reinvested).

 

[kgtest]

people are dumb

I'm still down 26% from peak to trough. Can I go back to February 19th please. 19.42% on the year, but nobody said 100% US growth equities wasn't risky. Thankfully 129 more months before I ER, and likely longer before I ever need to sell. Everything around me is closing. Costco is out of TP. We will need some of that next week...mass hysteria has set in. As Agent X in MIB says to Will Smith... "A person is smart, people are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it.

https://youtu.be/WPMMNvYTEyI

edit, how the hell do you embed a youtube vid into ER?

 

[teejayevans]

It seems to me we’re in a pattern: 2 steps down, 1 step up....today is a step up....Monday we’ll be down again.

 

[audreyh1]

Looks to me like we just gave up all of 2019's gains.

Personally my net worth dropped to mid 2017 yesterday. But that includes 3 years of spending, taxes, and some major gifting.

Also, remember 2019 started from an almost 20% correction.

 

[ER2B]

Day is not over yet. There's a 3 o'clock news update from the white house. The last one didn't turn out well.

It seems to me we’re in a pattern: 2 steps down, 1 step up....today is a step up....Monday we’ll be down again.

 

[audreyh1]

edit, how the hell do you embed a youtube vid into ER?

Check the above URL (which you’ll see if you quote my post). For me I have to paste a youtu.be link into Safari which will convert it into a youtube.com url which seems to worked embedded on this forum.