The dynamics of bond duration and rising rates

[OldShooter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanWinkle Timing the equity and bond markets is much harder than people think!! Most that try to time the market are wrong and actually do worse than those that just stay invested.

This.

My standard post on timing, always amusing reading: Taylor Larimore's market timing quotes https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tayl..._timing_quotes

[Lsbcal]

Give me a break. I am not advocating generalized timing just saying what I am doing. I assume we are all practicing adults here.

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanWinkle Timing the equity and bond markets is much harder than people think!! Most that try to time the market are wrong and actually do worse than those that just stay invested. VW

But that wasn't my question. My question only involved bonds, and only the coming year. Because right now we know rates are coming off historic lows, there isn't that far they could drop. And the Fed has said they plan to raise rates. The opportunity cost of not being in long term bonds seems very low, while the potential for losses could be very high.

[Lsbcal]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort But that wasn't my question. My question only involved bonds, and only the coming year. Because right now we know rates are coming off historic lows, there isn't that far they could drop. And the Fed has said they plan to raise rates. The opportunity cost of not being in long term bonds seems very low, while the potential for losses could be very high.

I agree.

Still we have to acknowledge that the bond market has priced some (or all?) of this in. The expected Fed tightening may not proceed as in the consensus guess. What if we have another variant that really clobbers the economy? What if we have a crisis in some other way that is seen to effect the economy (stocks down, bonds up)?

Currently my thought is to buy Tbills and maybe step back into intermediate (not long) term bonds or even short term bonds as the year progresses. If rates do not go up then maybe equities will do even better. Not much risk and I do have 50% in inflation protected bonds. Most of this is in tax protected accounts.

[VanWinkle]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort But that wasn't my question. My question only involved bonds, and only the coming year. Because right now we know rates are coming off historic lows, there isn't that far they could drop. And the Fed has said they plan to raise rates. The opportunity cost of not being in long term bonds seems very low, while the potential for losses could be very high.

I thought you were asking about changing your bond allocation/duration based on the news of rising inflation and interest rates. What you do is your business, and what works in the real world is anyone's guess. I'm sorry if you feel I was off the original subject, but I read your post again and didn't change my mind.

Best to you,

VW

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanWinkle I thought you were asking about changing your bond allocation/duration based on the news of rising inflation and interest rates

No, that isn't what I've been posting about. I'm not changing our allocation to fixed income, just long term bond funds.

"For fixed income these days I'm sticking mostly with floating rate, a TIPS ladder and stable value. We didn't have a lot in any longer term bonds but DH had some in a target fund plus we had a few other odds and ends in our 401K and I've been dumping those."

[Lsbcal]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort No, that isn't what I've been posting about. I'm not changing our allocation to fixed income, just long term bond funds. "For fixed income these days I'm sticking mostly with floating rate, a TIPS ladder and stable value. We didn't have a lot in any longer term bonds but DH had some in a target fund plus we had a few other odds and ends in our 401K and I've been dumping those."

So you are adjusting duration, right? Trying to reduce interest rate risk.

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lsbcal So you are adjusting duration, right? Trying to reduce interest rate risk.

Not necessarily duration as we still have our ladders, just the funds with longer term bonds.