Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
The Man From Demopolis Is Right So Far
Old 04-22-2009, 11:50 AM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
The Man From Demopolis Is Right So Far

Since its inception in July 1998, the Rogers International Commodities Index has gained 158%, while the S&P 500 has fallen 23%. And that gain for the commodities index comes despite the fact that it's lost more than half of its value since last July. At these levels, Rogers has been a buyer.

Jim Rogers Isn't Buying a U.S. Stock Recovery - Barrons.com
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-22-2009, 12:14 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
You could ask: "If he has all the answers, why did it lose half its value since last July?"
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-22-2009, 12:18 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
You could ask: "If he has all the answers, why did it lose half its value since last July?"

You could. I would not because I do not believe that one can be correct day to day. I don't think he ever said that each and every day commodities will go up in price, or that he has all the answers. He isn't that unrealistic.

While we are in a questioning mood, we might also ask why typical asset allocations that were suggested 10 years ago by respected "authorities" (Bernstein/ Bogle etc.) have produced zero real returns over ten years, and often zero nominal returns. Yet we don't ask why do we still follow this grievously flawed method? At least we don't often ask on this board.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-22-2009, 01:57 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,840
HAHA your link asked me to subscribe to barrons, this one is the same article and did not.

Jim Rogers Isn't Buying a U.S. Stock Recovery - Barrons.com

Jim Rogers has been so good for so long with long term trends and where to invest that his advice because he gives it away for free so often in Barrons seems to get discounted. He certainly is not a short term or even an intermediate term investor. He is the big trend investor and he looks for long term trends. He also is very down on the Federal Reserve and the likelihood of the Federal Reserve even existing 5-10 years from now.

I actually love his opinion on Bernanke (he calls him a nut).
__________________
But then what do I really know?

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
The Man From Demopolis Is Right So Far
Old 04-22-2009, 02:03 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
The Man From Demopolis Is Right So Far

Ever been to Demopolis, AL? You would never guess somebody like him would be from that little old town. Dead dead dead. He had the smarts to get out and make a fortune. Wish I had followed his advice. I guess I'll be scratching a poor man's a$$ from now on.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-22-2009, 06:23 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Free To Canoe's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Cooksburg,PA
Posts: 1,873
Running Man,

Thanks for the effort on the link to bypass the subscription, however, it didn't work for me. I will try Google. Jim Rogers is an interesting writer.

Free
Free To Canoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-22-2009, 08:20 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
You could ask: "If he has all the answers, why did it lose half its value since last July?"
What lost half of its value was the Rogers Commodities Index, not Roger's personal fortune which is kept private.

An explanation is in order for the Rogers Commodities Index. I read Rogers' books. He explained that when he decided to invest in commodities, he looked for a benchmark to represent commodity prices, and did not find a suitable one, so he made up his own. For example, he observed that rice has been a major staples around the world, but not adequately represented in the existing indices.

A drop of commodity prices would cause the Roger Index, in fact any commodity index, to drop. If Jim Rogers was able to tell in 2007 that the world recession would impact demand and got out of commodities, and now is getting back in, we do not know.

I do know that Jim is bullish on commodity demand for the long term, as the industrialization of China will be the driving factor. That is a highly plausible story, in my view. Keep an eye on the Chinese economy. When it resumes its boom, the commodity exporters in other countries will be rolling in dough. Same with the dry bulk shippers.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-22-2009, 08:34 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wildcat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
Free to canoe -

Go to youtube and search for Rogers. All of his Bloomberg interviews seemed to be posted there and that is where he is often interviewed. Just an fyi in case you want to follow him.

One thing that I have heard Rogers mention before is to look at 10 year cycles. He said at that time that asset classes/sectors run in 10 year cycles and to always look at the lowest returning classes/sectors in that group.

Now if that is what he really believed, commodities and emerging markets (namely China) would pretty much be out and those are the two he is positive about today.

I must say the guy has made some incredible calls. Not all have been right but he has a good enough track to have made quite a bit of money when everyone has lost money.
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
wildcat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-22-2009, 10:11 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
Copper price was as high as $4/lb in early 2008, collapsed down to below $1.5/lb in 2008 year end, and has climbed to above $2/lb now.

In the same time frame, Freeport McMoran stock price dropped from $120 down to $16, then climbed up to $40 now. Such volatility!

For what it's worth, the linked article below suggests that the recent run-up in copper price may not last as the Chinese economy recovery has not really picked up.

Freeport-McMoRan Digs For Solutions - Forbes.com
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-22-2009, 10:20 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
He also said the places to be;
1807 europe
1907 us
2007 asia
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Crazy Old Man slepyhed Health and Early Retirement 74 05-22-2010 07:07 AM
Rainbow Man: Ever Wonder... ? ronin Other topics 3 05-19-2008 05:52 PM
Travelin' Man Gumby Travel Information 4 04-16-2008 08:22 PM
Anyone For Burning Man? yakers Other topics 12 08-21-2007 03:17 PM
The Invisible Man yakers Other topics 12 02-09-2007 03:28 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:43 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.