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Old 04-21-2020, 10:28 AM   #81
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The oil and gas industry here in the U.S. has always been it's own worst enemy. For various reasons (some good, some bad), the industry just doesn't believe in shutting in production until it's too late. The fracking of natural gas back in the 2008-2012 caused a glut in natural gas with prices going from $9-$13/mcf down below $2. No company wants to be the first to curtail production - always wanting others to go first. Now we have a glut in oil, due to overproduction and a massive decline in demand. Things will turn around eventually, but it takes time - meanwhile many small/medium sized oil companies will be forced into bankruptcy.
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Old 04-21-2020, 11:47 AM   #82
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$0.229. The cheapest I ever paid for gas. Early 70’s.
One things for certain, you'll never see it that cheap again. The fed & state tax alone averages around $.50 per gallon.

Just drill baby
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Old 04-21-2020, 11:48 AM   #83
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The lessons to be learned from this adventure are not being made.

One lesson is to not speculate in the futures market.
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Old 04-21-2020, 11:53 AM   #84
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One lesson is to not speculate in the futures market.
Another is to always understand what you actually own. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/reta...awakening.html
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Old 04-21-2020, 12:09 PM   #85
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One of the Texas Railroad Commissioners just stated on CNBC that they want to approve a 20% curtailment of production IF other states and Canada will do the same. Good luck with that!
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Old 04-21-2020, 12:22 PM   #86
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^^^^^^
I'm not sure I have ever disagreed with a post more than this one above. Although I've disagreed with a good number of posts over the years. This is not good news and the negative ramifications are likely to be far reaching and are unpredictable at this time, especially if these negative prices drag on for any length of time. (Oil prices in the teens are bad enough) However, I would agree that eventually we will run out of fossil fuels and be forced to alternate sources but that's a long time away. Well beyond my lifetime anyway.



^^^^^^^^

Fully agree with this post. From my POV, with the price of gas going much lower than it is today, why would anyone want to buy an EV. Except maybe the environmental purist. (That's as politically correct as I can say it)

Also, you must have grown up rich. I can remember my mom pulling into the gas station and asking for a dollars worth. Of course that was in the very early 60's... And I do remember getting Green Stamps too.

I can remember seeing gas for 19.9 at one time. (Late 50's or early 60's)
A week ago or a year ago, you couldn't understand why anyone would want to buy an EV. The current oil situation isn't changing your outlook. If gas was 10 cents or 10 dollars a gallon you wont be buying an EV. But that's you. Your POV is ICE car is superior. That isn't going to change.

Cheap oil won't encourage EV sales. But the price of gasoline is not the reason Tesla sales keep increasing. (How is Ford doing?)

People buy EV's for many reasons. Not having to stop to refuel at a gas station is just one of them. Check with an EV owner and see why they say" they'll never go back to driving an ICE car again".
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Old 04-21-2020, 12:44 PM   #87
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One lesson is to not speculate in the futures market.
ISO a very popular ETF owned as of yesterday 33% of the future contracts for June delivery. THE ETF was thought to be a way to invest in a hedged fund to profit from moves in the commodity. Indeed they are swamped with orders to create more shares as money is pouring in from people convinced now is the time to buy oil. However, they cannot create creation units as the math does not work and as a consequence have stopped trading several times today to change the rules under which the ETF operates and to avoid going to negative value itself. Kyle Bass is questioning if the owners of an ETF could be held to loss more than 100% of their investment if ISO turns negative.

But it is not the futures speculation but the physical limitations that are actually driving the market. Kelly Evans just posted a piece where when June oil is delivered the expectation is for negative 100 a barrel oil.
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Old 04-21-2020, 12:50 PM   #88
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"US Oil Fund halted after saying it will change structure again as ETF tries to stave off collapse"

Given that they have to rollover the June futures contract starting May 5th, 2020 and
the June contract is already at just over $10, the oil market was headed for an even more of a disaster. You have to ask yourself, why does this ETF even exist. It just rolls two months of oil futures forward. There are some leveraged equity ETFs and ETNs that are even more dangerous.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/usos...act-to-ex.html
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Old 04-21-2020, 01:23 PM   #89
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"US Oil Fund halted after saying it will change structure again as ETF tries to stave off collapse"

Given that they have to rollover the June futures contract starting May 5th, 2020 and
the June contract is already at just over $10, the oil market was headed for an even more of a disaster. You have to ask yourself, why does this ETF even exist. It just rolls two months of oil futures forward. There are some leveraged equity ETFs and ETNs that are even more dangerous.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/usos...act-to-ex.html
Just went long USO at $2.38!
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Old 04-21-2020, 02:42 PM   #90
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WTH - I dropped a small amount of cash into oil futures today. It will be interesting to see what that looks like a year from now.

Hopefully this and not this
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Old 04-21-2020, 02:42 PM   #91
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A week ago or a year ago, you couldn't understand why anyone would want to buy an EV. The current oil situation isn't changing your outlook. If gas was 10 cents or 10 dollars a gallon you wont be buying an EV. But that's you. Your POV is ICE car is superior. That isn't going to change.
100% correct on all points...

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Cheap oil won't encourage EV sales.
I "believe" that will prove to be 100% correct too!

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People buy EV's for many reasons. Not having to stop to refuel at a gas station is just one of them.
So I guess they must prefer to stop more often and for much longer periods of time for each stop to charge their batteries. If that's what they like to do with their time then that is fine, but it's 100% not for me.
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Old 04-21-2020, 02:53 PM   #92
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There is now talk of a possible fossil fuel bailout. I hope not but it would fit into the traditional practice by some of privatizing profits and socializing losses. While oil and gas workers facing layoffs deserve assistance, their bosses do not. I guess another example of our so-called "free market".....I hope it doesn't happen.
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Old 04-21-2020, 03:08 PM   #93
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100% correct on all points...


I "believe" that will prove to be 100% correct too!

So I guess they must prefer to stop more often and for much longer periods of time for each stop to charge their batteries. If that's what they like to do with their time then that is fine, but it's 100% not for me.
Thats a common misconception about EV drivers. 80% of Tesla owners never "stop more often", or at all. You fuel up at home. Just like your phone. If you had to get in your car and drive a mile or 2 or ? to charge your phone, we would all consider that a negative to owning a phone.

I would guess the Leaf and Bolt numbers are higher than 80%.

But if you like spending your time at gas stations that is fine, but I 100% don't need to.
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Old 04-21-2020, 03:39 PM   #94
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Thats a common misconception about EV drivers. 80% of Tesla owners never "stop more often", or at all. You fuel up at home.
I guess I'd be in the 20% group if I had a Tesla or any pure EV since I couldn't make my typical "day" trips on one charge. Over the past 6 to 7 years I've been making 3 or 4 ~400 mile (per day) round trips each month. That's 200 miles each way if I take the shortest routes. Add another 50 to 75 miles, each way, if I want to take different (more scenic routes) which I sometimes do when I feel like it. Then several times each year I take some much longer trips and often drive 600 to 700 miles per day on those trips. To be honest I wouldn't drive an EV even if it could go 1k miles a day and charge over night,,, but that's me...
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Old 04-21-2020, 03:41 PM   #95
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There is now talk of a possible fossil fuel bailout. I hope not but it would fit into the traditional practice by some of privatizing profits and socializing losses. While oil and gas workers facing layoffs deserve assistance, their bosses do not. I guess another example of our so-called "free market".....I hope it doesn't happen.
I suppose it depends on your thoughts on bailouts in general. Personally, I'm not in favor of bailouts - but I suppose if the airlines get bailed out and the banks and car makers last time, then why not the oil industry? I can see our energy industry being just as valuable as these others. While COVID19 isn't the only reason oil prices tanked, it IS a very big reason demand has cratered.

Full disclosure: I'm biased, as I worked in the industry for 30 years and DW currently does. The only way her small oil company avoids bankruptcy is if there's a bailout.
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Old 04-21-2020, 04:02 PM   #96
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I guess I'd be in the 20% group if I had a Tesla or any pure EV since I couldn't make my typical "day" trips on one charge. Over the past 6 to 7 years I've been making 3 or 4 ~400 mile (per day) round trips each month. That's 200 miles each way if I take the shortest routes. Add another 50 to 75 miles, each way, if I want to take different (more scenic routes) which I sometimes do when I feel like it. Then several times each year I take some much longer trips and often drive 600 to 700 miles per day on those trips. To be honest I wouldn't drive an EV even if it could go 1k miles a day and charge over night,,, but that's me...
Your situation isn't common, but it does occur. Ford (how is that company doing?) came out with a study that said 72% of all drivers stay under 40 miles a day. My EV's would last a week between charges at 40 miles a day.

For the vast majority 325 miles of range is plenty. Some people choose to have an ICE and an EV.

We prefer different vehicles, but to eliminate gas stations and their stench from one's life one picks an EV.
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Old 04-21-2020, 04:10 PM   #97
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Your situation isn't common, but it does occur. Ford (how is that company doing?) came out with a study that said 72% of all drivers stay under 40 miles a day. My EV's would last a week between charges at 40 miles a day.

For the vast majority 325 miles of range is plenty. Some people choose to have an ICE and an EV.

We prefer different vehicles, but to eliminate gas stations and their stench from one's life one picks an EV.
We get it. You love your EV, and every should have one.

But I have to admit I have NEVER heard the reason to get an EV was to avoid the stench of gas stations.

I guess there is a reason I never posted in the EV thread that was going a while ago (or maybe I did and forgot about it).
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Old 04-21-2020, 04:14 PM   #98
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Your situation isn't common, but it does occur. Ford (how is that company doing?) came out with a study that said 72% of all drivers stay under 40 miles a day. .
I don't have a clue about how Ford is doing as a company. (never cared much for Ford's) I'm a GM and FCA guy.

And 40 miles a day I drive that far or more just to get to the nearest store/post office/hamburger joint and back home.

If I lived in a big city and/or didn't take as many long trips as I do, I could consider an EV (well maybe ,,,,,, on second thought, not)
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Old 04-21-2020, 04:15 PM   #99
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Can we take the generic EV discussion back to one of the many EV threads and let the “botton fell out of the petroleum market” discussion continue? It’s an interesting topic
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Old 04-21-2020, 05:05 PM   #100
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^^^^^^
As you wish forum leader.....
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