|
|
The Silver Tsunami & Real Estate
11-23-2019, 06:49 PM
|
#1
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 428
|
The Silver Tsunami & Real Estate
It looks like a real estate correction will be coming as Baby Boomers "exit home ownership." 21 million homes over the next 20 years:
https://twitter.com/issiromem/status...01866716565504
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
11-23-2019, 06:50 PM
|
#2
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 428
|
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 06:58 PM
|
#3
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,266
|
I think a realistic concern... especially here in Florida where building abounds... I suspect that supply will be huge and demand will crater in 30 years based on demographics.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 06:59 PM
|
#4
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,204
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tekward
It looks like a real estate correction will be coming as Baby Boomers "exit home ownership." 21 million homes over the next 20 years:
|
Boomers won’t all act or ultimately die at once, so I’d expect a long downward price appreciation trend more than a “correction” or something abrupt like the 2008-09 RE meltdown - which RE prices fully recovered from years ago. Prices will respond to excess supply as always, but it’ll be a persistent trend versus a correction. And it’s not like the impact of Boomers on the economy hasn’t been fully discussed, shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who can fog a mirror.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 07:06 PM
|
#5
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,266
|
Yeah, perhaps crater was a poor word to use, but it will a long, steady and very significant decline in demand.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 07:13 PM
|
#6
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,204
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
Yeah, perhaps crater was a poor word to use, but it will a long, steady and very significant decline in demand.
|
I was questioning the use of “correction” and “tsunami” as overstating for dramatic effect. I agree it will be as you describe.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 07:15 PM
|
#7
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: The Great Wide Open
Posts: 3,789
|
This was predicted by Forbes magazine, prior to 2008. I'm trying to find the link.....
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 07:20 PM
|
#8
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,204
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winemaker
This was predicted by Forbes magazine, prior to 2008. I'm trying to find the link.....
|
And they said the same thing would happen as Boomers downsized into smaller homes as they retired, which technically began in 2011. So far so good it seems.
The impact of Boomers on the economy and sectors is one of the most predictable events to plan for, gradual not a tsunami. Unlike recessions, inflation, returns, growth, climate, black swans, geopolitics, asteroids...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 07:35 PM
|
#9
|
Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 22,973
|
I don't worry about it. There never has been and likely never will be a shortage of people who would love to move into my neighborhood.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 08:01 PM
|
#10
|
gone traveling
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Berkeley, Denver, CO, USA
Posts: 1,406
|
Not Silver Tsunami, but Croaker Growth.
I stole that.
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 08:02 PM
|
#11
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 3,431
|
Nothing occurs in a vacuum.
At the same time as the Boomers are "exiting home ownership" and eventually this orb, the largest demographic cohort group ever (numbering over 75 million in the U.S.), the Millenials (aka Echo Boomers, born ~1981 - ~1996) will be doing whatever their generation decides to do as far as real estate. They've got to live somewhere, whether it's in walkable cities, or beachfront huts, or in their grandma's old house.
omni
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 08:31 PM
|
#12
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,173
|
Boomers are also supposed to be selling off all their stocks about now causing the market to go into a long term Bear Market. I guess we’re not selling as fast as we should. Bad Boomers for making these experts look foolish.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 08:41 PM
|
#13
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,479
|
Um, millennials are the "largest generation" so how does that math work? https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...-baby-boomers/
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 08:58 PM
|
#14
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,501
|
Figure if the population is still growing someone will need a house. I never went for the McMansion so I'm not worried.
A deadly flu pandemic however could crater prices.
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 10:47 PM
|
#15
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Bernalillo, NM
Posts: 2,717
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by omni550
Nothing occurs in a vacuum.
At the same time as the Boomers are "exiting home ownership" and eventually this orb, the largest demographic cohort group ever (numbering over 75 million in the U.S.), the Millenials (aka Echo Boomers, born ~1981 - ~1996) will be doing whatever their generation decides to do as far as real estate. They've got to live somewhere, whether it's in walkable cities, or beachfront huts, or in their grandma's old house.
omni
|
Keep in mind that the beach will be located a little farther inland for the Millenials and their children. Especially in Florida. Rising water probably won't affect the supply of moderate price houses inland, but those fancy high rises might have some issues. And it will be hotter also, for them.
some speculation from the link:
What We’ll See
-Millennial generation Floridians, by this period in their senior years [2050-2075-, will be living in a Florida much changed from that of their youth.
-In Pinellas, as sea-level rise reaches three to four feet, major chunks of the barrier islands will be lost.
-In central Florida, Lake Monroe, far inland, swells to absorb connected lakes.
You’ll need a kayak to get to the door of Cedar Key City Hall.
-Kennedy Space Center and the commercial rocket industry grow increasingly isolated by rising water.
-Fort Lauderdale indeed becomes America’s Venice, with water at residential doorsteps, U.S. 1 under water and downtown awash at three feet and gone at four. The corporate descendant of Flagler’s railroad will need to span long stretches of Broward water — imitating his ill-fated original Overseas Railroad in the Keys — to remain operational.
-At three feet, Miami Beach is gone but for a spine close to the Atlantic. Brickell has standing water, and the Miami River widens up through central Miami-Dade. Water penetration from the former Everglades consumes western urbanized Miami-Dade.
-In the Keys, at 24 inches of rise, nuisance floods occur 672 times per year — nearly every daily high tide.
https://www.floridatrend.com/article...ida-2050--2075
__________________
"We live the lives we lead because of the thoughts we think" ...Michael O’Neill
"We can cannot compel others to do our will" ....Norman Goldman
"There never is shortage of the gullible to accept the illogical"...Anonymous
|
|
|
11-23-2019, 10:51 PM
|
#16
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Bernalillo, NM
Posts: 2,717
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
I was questioning the use of “correction” and “tsunami” as overstating for dramatic effect. I agree it will be as you describe.
|
Besides 'tsunami', someone else mentioned 'crater'. It reminded me of the proverbial meteor strike that would definitely affect home values.
__________________
"We live the lives we lead because of the thoughts we think" ...Michael O’Neill
"We can cannot compel others to do our will" ....Norman Goldman
"There never is shortage of the gullible to accept the illogical"...Anonymous
|
|
|
11-24-2019, 12:37 AM
|
#17
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: SoCal
Posts: 1,286
|
I'll believe it when I saw it.
|
|
|
11-24-2019, 07:59 AM
|
#18
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,501
|
Don't matter.
The USSR nukes blew us up in the 50s, hide under your desk.
Air pollution is so bad we can't leave the house since the 60s.
We all died of skin cancer in the 70s from the ozone layer vanishing.
Anyway, it's all owned by the Japanese who bought all of America in the 80s.
(I believe in human caused warming, but don't think we have the wisdom or knowledge to model what the real effects will be. So let's burn a bit less coal and oil even if it's just for breathable air.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by timo2
Keep in mind that the beach will be located a little farther inland for the Millenials and their children. Especially in Florida. Rising water probably won't affect the supply of moderate price houses inland, but those fancy high rises might have some issues. And it will be hotter also, for them.
some speculation from the link:
What We’ll See
-Millennial generation Floridians, by this period in their senior years [2050-2075-, will be living in a Florida much changed from that of their youth.
-In Pinellas, as sea-level rise reaches three to four feet, major chunks of the barrier islands will be lost.
-In central Florida, Lake Monroe, far inland, swells to absorb connected lakes.
You’ll need a kayak to get to the door of Cedar Key City Hall.
-Kennedy Space Center and the commercial rocket industry grow increasingly isolated by rising water.
-Fort Lauderdale indeed becomes America’s Venice, with water at residential doorsteps, U.S. 1 under water and downtown awash at three feet and gone at four. The corporate descendant of Flagler’s railroad will need to span long stretches of Broward water — imitating his ill-fated original Overseas Railroad in the Keys — to remain operational.
-At three feet, Miami Beach is gone but for a spine close to the Atlantic. Brickell has standing water, and the Miami River widens up through central Miami-Dade. Water penetration from the former Everglades consumes western urbanized Miami-Dade.
-In the Keys, at 24 inches of rise, nuisance floods occur 672 times per year — nearly every daily high tide.
https://www.floridatrend.com/article...ida-2050--2075
|
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
|
|
|
11-24-2019, 08:16 AM
|
#19
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: The Great Wide Open
Posts: 3,789
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by GravitySucks
Don't matter.
The USSR nukes blew us up in the 50s, hide under your desk.
Air pollution is so bad we can't leave the house since the 60s.
We all died of skin cancer in the 70s from the ozone layer vanishing.
Anyway, it's all owned by the Japanese who bought all of America in the 80s.
(I believe in human caused warming, but don't think we have the wisdom or knowledge to model what the real effects will be. So let's burn a bit less coal and oil even if it's just for breathable air.)
|
You forgot acid rain. Once foresters reported that forest fires create "basic" or "non acidic" wood ash that naturally buffers the "always acid" rain, that disaster was avoided.
|
|
|
11-24-2019, 08:37 AM
|
#20
|
Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,586
|
Does this mean the flow of people to retire in Florida will finally reverse?
So, on the one hand, people are building in riskier areas (flood, fire, tornado) with longer commutes becasue land and new housing is so expensive, but on the other hand we are seeing the beginning of a major collapse due to an excess of housing. Something doesn’t compute.
The population continues to grow and the amount of land does not. Demand for housing will continue to grow IMO. Some folks with retirement plans built around their current home value may have to rethink their calculations, but everyone else will be fine. These are markets, and markets adjust to price.
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|